【作者】 刘学理；

【导师】 王兴元；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 人类社会已经进入了品牌经济时代,作为一类重要的无形资产,品牌在经济运行中扮演着极为重要的角色。美国市场营销协会认为品牌首先是一个产品标识,这个标识提供了与其他产品相区别的特征,顾客通过不同的品牌认知不同的产品及其价值。所有品牌开始时都借助于产品实体而产生,但是它一旦产生,就有了相对独立的生命,可以描述成“复杂的生物”。品牌作为“复杂的生物”,依靠市场资源生存和发展,只有形成适当的品牌生态系统,品牌才能持续生存和发展。品牌生态系统是由品牌及其赖以生存发展的相关环境复合而成的商业生态系统,包括品牌拥有企业、供应商、中间商、顾客、公众、相关组织与群体等成员。作为经济和社会发展的动态子系统,品牌生态系统的发展时刻面临着各种风险和不确定因素的影响,能够及时识别出各种风险因素、对其风险程度进行正确的评估并采取适当的风险管理措施的品牌生态系统更能表现出积极的成长力。目前,对品牌生态系统的研究大多集中在成长机制、生态位测度及评价等方面,很少有探讨品牌生态系统风险问题的研究文献,更缺乏全面的品牌生态系统风险管理理论和方法体系。本研究将风险管理理论和品牌生态系统理论相结合,在现有研究的基础上,以“品牌生态系统风险管理研究”为选题,从品牌生态系统风险管理问题提出的研究背景出发,分析了研究的理论和实践意义,对相关的基本概念进行了界定。在对国内外研究文献进行综述的基础上,深入分析了品牌生态系统的基本结构,指出了品牌生态系统的各种生态因子,详细探讨了品牌生态系统的运行特征,构建了品牌生态系统风险管理的过程框架,并对各阶段的具体内容进行了阐述,探索性地设计了将风险管理过程与品牌生态系统生命周期相结合的动态风险管理模式。采用人员访谈和问卷调查的方法对品牌生态系统的风险因素进行识别,应用因子分析法得到关键的风险因子并构建了指标体系,明确了品牌生态系统的风险结构体系,信度检验的结果证实了品牌生态系统的风险结构体系中各部分构成的合理性。然后利用层次分析法确定各指标的权重,用模糊综合评估计算品牌生态系统的风险水平,基于多主体建模平台构建了一个风险控制策略执行情况的仿真实验,考察风险控制策略的可行性,得出相应的研究结论,并对未来的研究趋势进行展望。本研究的创新点主要体现在以下几个方面：(1)构建了动态的品牌生态系统风险管理模式。通过深入分析品牌生态系统的运行过程特点,将品牌生态系统的风险管理过程划分为三大模块：风险识别、风险评估和风险控制,这三大模块的关系是前后衔接、相辅相成,共同构成了一个统一的整体。在品牌生态系统的运营中,其风险管理过程不应是一次性的,理想情况是实时和动态的,应根据系统的具体情况和受控风险因素的时间敏感性状况,确定风险管理过程的循环频率,以尽可能做到对系统风险的实时监控和评估,为风险控制对策的制定提供依据。为保证品牌生态系统风险管理工作的顺利进行,需要设计一体化的风险管理组织模式,将品牌生态系统的风险管理职能分散于组织内部的所有人员和各个环节,每一个成员都担负部分的风险管理责任,同时也要配备专职的部门承担系统整体的集中风险管理。(2)对面向全生命周期的品牌生态系统风险因素进行了识别和因子分析,以此为基础构建了品牌生态系统的风险评估指标体系和评估模型。通过综合运用两种风险识别方法,并结合问卷调查对面向全生命周期的品牌生态系统风险因素进行了初步的识别,得出了对系统风险有显著影响的28个主要风险因素。以此为依据,初步构建了品牌生态系统风险评估指标体系,并对该指标体系的结构进行了探索,提炼出7个风险因子。该风险评估指标体系,基于企业调研和样本统计分析的基础上构建,充分体现了品牌生态系统的风险特征,具有较强的可操作性。在品牌生态系统的风险评估指标体系中,很多指标难以用定量的数值来表示,而是靠人为的主观判断,具有很大的模糊性。针对这种情况,一般的风险评估方法较难处理,而模糊综合评估非常适合处理这种模糊性,因此,本研究选择模糊综合评估作为品牌生态系统风险评估的方法。因为组成品牌生态系统风险评估指标体系的指标数量非常多,而且具有递阶层次关系,所以采用层次分析法确定各指标权重确定,由此构建了基于层次分析法定权的品牌生态系统风险模糊综合评估模型。(3)基于多主体建模的方法设计了品牌生态系统风险控制策略的仿真实验。利用多主体建模平台,可以仿真品牌生态系统中微观决策主体的行为,通过研究微观层面上的个体行为可以寻找系统宏观模式的形成原因,因为宏观模式是由个体之间的交互作用中涌现出来的,从而有助于研究者发现个体微观行为与源于微观行为的宏观模式之间的联系。本研究基于NetLogo建模平台设计了一个品牌生态系统风险控制策略的仿真实验,实验中的每一个主体可以选择遵守品牌生态系统的风险控制策略(遵守策略者),也可以选择不遵守(违反策略者)。对于每一个决策主体来说,遵守策略是有成本的,可能会影响其短期利益,但对于整个品牌生态系统的发展是有利的。本实验通过对各决策主体行为的计算机仿真,观察随着时间的推移,在不同条件下采取这两种策略的群体会出现什么样的结果,从而探索影响风险控制策略执行的各种因素及作用机制,为相应策略的制定提供决策的依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The era of brand economy has been coming, as an important type of the immaterial assets; brand plays an extremely key role in the economy. American Marketing Association believes that brand is first of all a product identification, the identification provides products distinguishing features from others, Customers are aware of different products and its value through different brand. Every brand starts with the help of product entity at the beginning, but once it arises, it will have relatively independent life, can be described as "complex biological".As a "complex biological", brand relies on the market resources for survival and development, only forming proper brand ecosystem, brand can be survive and develop. Brand ecosystem is a commercial ecosystem composed of the brand and the survival of the development environment, including brand owned enterprises, suppliers, intermediaries, customers, the public, relevant organizations and groups of members. As the economic and social development dynamic subsystem, brand ecosystem always faces various kinds of risks and uncertainties in its development, brand ecosystem which can timely identify various risk factors, make proper assessment of the risk degree and appropriate risk management measures can display the positive growth force.At present, the research of brand ecosystem mostly focuses on the growth mechanism, niche metrics and evaluation etc., few have explored the brand ecosystem risk problem in the research literature, lack systematic brand ecosystem risk management theory and method system. On the basis of the existing research, this paper uses "brand ecosystem risk management research" as the topic and combines with the theory of risk management and brand ecosystem. From the background of brand ecosystem risk management issues, this paper analyzes the significance of the study and defines the basic concept. Based on domestic and international research literature reviewed, this study makes an in-depth analysis of the basic structure of brand ecosystem, points out the ecological factors of brand ecosystem, discusses the operating characteristics of brand ecosystem in detail, builds a brand ecosystem risk management process framework, describes the specific content of various stages and designs a dynamic risk management model to a combination of the life cycle of brand ecosystem and the risk management process. This study uses personal interviews and questionnaires to identify the risk factors of brand ecosystem, factor analysis to get the key risk factors to build the index system, makes the risk structure system of brand ecosystem clear. The reliability test results confirms that the risk structure system of brand ecosystem constitutes reasonable, the index weights are determined by analytic hierarchy process, and the risk level of brand ecosystem is calculated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Multi-agent-based modeling platform is used to build a simulation experiment of risk control strategy implementation, the feasibility of risk control strategy is investigated, and we draw the appropriate conclusions and make prospects of future research trends.The innovation of this study is mainly reflected in the following aspects:(1) Construction of dynamic risk management mode of brand ecosystem. Through in-depth analysis of brand ecosystem’s running characteristics, the process of risk management is divided into three parts in this dissertation, which are:risk identification, risk assessment and risk control. The relationship between these three modules back to back, complement each other, together form a unified whole. In the operations of the brand ecosystem, its risk management process should not be a one-time, ideally, real-time and dynamic, should be based on the specific circumstances of the system and controlled risk factors, time-sensitive situation, determine the cycle frequency of the risk management process, make the real-time monitoring and assessment of systemic risk as possible, provide the basis for the formulation of the risk control measures. To guarantee brand ecosystem risk management work smoothly, we need to design the integration of risk management organizational model, brand ecosystem risk management functions are spread over all personnel and all aspects within the organization, every member takes part of the risk management responsibilities, but full-time sector should also be equipped with to undertake the overall concentration of risk management. (2) Construction of index system of risk assessment of brand ecosystem on the basis of identification and factor analysis of risk factors for the full life cycle. Based on the existing literature and research achievements, as well as enterprise interviews, the common factors of risk of brand ecosystem is identified. Through samples surveys and statistical analysis, the internal consistency of these common factors was confirmed, and the risk system structure of brand ecosystem was defined. On the basis, the index system of risk assessment was formed, which included seven risk factors and twenty-eight specific sub-indicators. Due to the composition of the brand ecosystem risk assessment indicators system of index number is very much, and with hierarchical relationship, so we can use the analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of each index. In addition, since the majority of targets are qualitative indexes, with considerable ambiguity, it is difficult to carry on the accurate quantitative evaluation, thus is more suitable to use the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to establish evaluation model of brand ecosystem, the overall level of risk assessment, combined with specific case was evaluated.(3) Construction of simulation experiment based on multi-agent-based modeling platform. We can use the platform to simulate the microscopic behavior of the decision-making body in brand ecosystem, and find the causes of the macro mode of the system through research at the micro level of individual behavior. Because macro mode emerges from the interaction between the individual, thus contributing to the researchers found that the link between the individual micro behavior from the microscopic behavior of the macro mode. This study designs a brand ecosystem risk control strategy implementation simulation experiment based on NetLogo modeling platform, each subject in the experiment can choose to comply with the brand ecosystem risk control strategy or not. Observed over time, groups of these two strategies will be taken what kind of results under different conditions, explores the implementation of a variety of factors affect the risk control strategy and mechanism, provide a basis for decision-making for the formulation of appropriate strategies.更多还原