【作者】 马贤磊；

【导师】 李元； 曲福田；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2008， 博士

【副题名】以丘陵地区水稻生产为例

【摘要】 作为世界上最大的发展中国家,自20世纪90年代中后期起,中国长期的粮食安全问题和农村自然资源可持续利用问题一直受到国内外的广泛关注。先进的农业技术和有效的制度改革一直被视为是促进农业增加和保证自然资源可持续利用的重要因素,其中农地产权制度更是被看作是解决中国长期的粮食安全问题和农村自然资源可持续利用问题的核心。因此农地产权制度是否完善已成为影响整个中国经济社会可持续发展的关键所在。迄今为止,有关农地产权制度的研究可谓汗牛充栋,可以说,农地产权制度与农业生产绩效间关系的研究并不是一个新鲜的研究主题。但是正因为该主题对农村乃至整个中国经济社会可持续发展至关重要以及研究主题本身的争议性,长期以来,无论是政策制定者还是学术研究人员都没有忽略过对该主题的分析和探讨。以往众多研究普遍分解农地产权的权利束,经验检验农地产权制度的稳定性和转让性等细化的权利对农民土地投资、土地租赁市场发育和农业生产绩效的影响。这为系统分析农地产权制度对农业绩效影响提供基础的分析方法,但是以往研究较少构建系统的理论模型来剖析农地产权制度在微观层面如何影响农户土地投资决策和参与土地租赁市场决策,另外,以往的研究也缺乏系统地分析农地产权制度、土地投资、土地租赁市场和农业生产绩效四者间的内在关系。大量的经验研究都检验了以往的农地产权制度对土地投资、土地租赁市场发育和农业生产绩效的影响,但很少有文献检验现阶段农地产权制度的绩效。现阶段农地产权制度的具体特征表现为农地产权的转让性已经比较完整,但是仍然缺乏稳定性,表现为一方面土地调整思维仍然普遍存在于农民心中,土地调整并没有完全禁止；另一方面土地使用权证书发放比例不高,并且大部分已发放的土地使用权证书并不符合相关法规要求。因此,这为检验现阶段农地产权制度与农业生产绩效间的关系提供了研究空间。纵观改革开放以来中国农村土地制度改革的历史,发现该阶段改革主要集中于在家庭承包制的基础上对土地承包权的权能拓展和期限延长。即,一方面在原先不允许土地流转的情况下允许土地流转,并逐渐减少土地流转中的限制,提供越来越自由的土地转让权；另一方面,延长土地承包期,由原先的延长15年到承包期满再延长15年,最后到维持农地承包期30年不变。同时逐渐减少村集体对农村土地行政调整的范围,由原先政策允许“大调整”到政策禁止“大调整”,鼓励“小调整”,再到政策禁止“大调整”,限制“小调整”在“个别经营者”之间。改革的根本目的在于将土地产权清晰地界定给农民,赋予农民更加“个人化”的农地产权,杜绝侵权现象。但是改革中一直存在两个困境：农地稳定与土地调整间的困境以及土地租赁市场政策改革的困境。虽然原因复杂,但是农地的社会保障功能放大了农地产权不稳定带来的影响是造成两个困境的一个重要原因。全文的研究结构为“分析框架—理论模型—经验模型”,即首先从分析框架出发提炼研究问题的本质和基本逻辑思路,然后通过理论分析构建理论模型并提出理论假说,最后构建经验模型来检验理论假说。在分析框架部分,本文构建了以“农地产权制度——农业生产绩效”为主线,以土地投资激励效应和土地租赁市场配置效应为两个核心的基本分析框架,即现阶段农地产权制度通过对两个核心——土地投资激励效应和土地租赁市场配置效应的影响来最终提高农业生产绩效。因此,两个核心是衔接这条主线的必要部分。论文主体的第一部分引用企业领域的投资决策理论探讨农地产权制度对农民土地投资影响的微观机制。理论模型分别分析了农地产权制度与农户短期投资和长期投资间的关系,并使用农户调查数据对其进行检验。结论指出农户根据传统的净现值理念来决策土地上的短期投资,现阶段农地产权的稳定性并不激励农户的短期投资,表现为衡量农地产权稳定性的土地产权变量在统计上并不显著；但是由于农户的长期投资具有明显的不确定性和不可逆性,农户根据实物期权理念来决策长期投资。因而农地产权的稳定性能够激励长期投资,表现为大部分衡量农地产权客观不确定性和主观不确定性的变量在统计上都显著。论文主体的第二部分借用基本农户模型和交易费用理论探讨农地产权制度对土地租赁市场发育影响的微观机制。理论模型分别分析了土地产权制度与土地租入市场和租出市场间的关系,并进行经验检验。结论指出农户土地租入决策与参与非农就业市场决策之间存在联立性,土地调整次数的减少和土地证书发放比例的增加能够激励未参与土地租入市场的农户租入土地或者已租入土地的农户租入更多的土地；但是土地租出决策与参与非农就业市场决策之间并不存在明显的联立性,可能的原因是土地社会保障功能阻碍了农户租出土地。但既便如此,土地证书发放比例的增加仍然能够激励部分未参与土地租出市场的农户租出土地或者已租出土地的农户租出更多的土地。论文主体的第三部分经验检验现阶段农地产权制度与农业生产绩效间的关系,指出农地产权稳定性的投资激励效应对土地生产能力和劳动力生产能力的激励程度都是非常微弱的,甚至存在反激励作用。可能的原因是农业生产中的高不确定性促使农户利用短期投资来替代长期投资,从而掩盖了长期投资对土地生产能力和劳动力生产能力的促进作用；与投资激励效应不同的是,虽然现阶段农地产权稳定性的市场配置效应对土地生产能力的影响不显著,但是对劳动力生产能力的影响是显著的,这表明农户虽然可以通过短期投资和长期投资间的替代来弥补资源配置效应对土地生产能力的影响,但是无法改变其低下的劳动力生产能力的事实。这种资源配置效应来自于地权稳定性激励农户参与土地租赁市场,促进土地从低劳动力生产能力的农户手中转移到高劳动力生产能力农户手中,提高整体劳动力生产能力。基于上述研究成果,目前服务于解决中国长期的粮食安全问题和农村自然资源可持续利用问题的政策启示包括：(1)将现阶段农地产权制度改革的重心转移到提高农户对农地产权稳定性的认识上来,而不再是仅仅对农地产权进行权能拓展和期限延长；(2)完善农地产权方面法规,缩小《农村土地承包法》中“土地调整”范围,严格禁止由于人口变化或者其它人为因素(土地征用)导致的土地调整,而将土地调整的“特殊情形”仅界定给自然灾害导致的无法通过其它途径解决的土地矛盾；(3)推进农村基层的土地产权制度改革,通过政策宣传和相关监督机制引导农村基层土地产权改革。通过颁发法律上生效的土地产权证书以及土地政策宣传,让农民真正认识到农村土地30年使用权归自己所有；(4)加快农村社会保障体系建设,逐渐释放农地产权的社会保障功能；(5)改革配套政策环境,包括加大地方政府对农村生产性基础设施改造力度,减少自然灾害带给土地投资的风险；加强农产品价格调控,减少农产品价格波动带给农业投资的风险；积极推进非农就业市场发育,激活土地租赁市场。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the world’s largest developing economy, since the second half of the 1990s onwards, China’s long-term food prospects and sustainable use of natural resources in rural area have been receiving a wide attention. Advanced agricultural technologies and effective institutional changes have been considered as one of the most important means promoting agricultural growth and sustainability of natural resources use, in particular, a farmland tenure system as the core one. Therefore, whether a farmland tenure system is perfect has a significant impact on sustainable development in terms of social, economic and ecological aspects in China.Up to date, massive literature has explored land property rights issues in China as well as other countries, and thus, the study on the relationship between farmland tenure and agricultural production performance is absolutely not a new area. However, the exploration about it has never suspended in the practical and scientific fields in the past decades because of its extreme importance to sustainable development in the rural area as well as the urban area. The previous research, by and large, decomposes farmland tenure into farmland tenure security and transferability, and examines the impact of both aspects on land-related investments, land rental markets and agricultural production. The literature provides further research with a valuable methodological basis, whereas, very little has been focused on the micro-mechanism of the impact of farmland tenure on land-related investments and land rental markets. In addition, a large body of literature has examined the impact of the previous farmland tenure on land-related investments, land rental markets and agricultural production, very little research, to my knowledge, has been done to examine the impact of the present farmland tenure. The farmland tenure at present is characterized by relatively high transferability and low security. More specific, on the one hand, the frequent land readjustments happened in the past have still influenced the perception of farmers on the future land readjustment and tenure security, and thus, land readjustments never ceased up to date. On the other hand, the land tenure certificates indicating high security of farmland tenure have not been widely handed out to farmers, and some of the certificates issued are also not in line with the concerning laws and regulations. Therefore it provides a valuable research space for examining the impact of the present farmland tenure on land-related investments, land rental markets and agricultural production.The farmland tenure reforms mainly focused on expansion of farmland tenure function and extension of farmland tenure period on the basis of the household responsibility system in the past decades. To specify, the farmland tenure reform, on the one hand, gradually allowed farmers to transfer land on land rental market, on the other hand, prolonged the period of land contracts from 15 years to 30 years, and gradually narrowed the scope of land readjustments. The main aim of these reforms is to enhance farmland tenure security and transferability, and provide farmers with more individual-right tenure. However, these reforms did not obtain the expected results for policy-makers. In the process of the reforms, the contradiction between farmland tenure security and land readjustments and the tardiness of formal land rental market development are the two major problems which are confronted with policy-makers. Despite of a lot of complicated causes for the two problems, the expansion of the impact of farmland tenure insecurity which results from the presence of land social security function contributes a lot to the two problems.The major analysis structure which guides the whole thesis is called analysis framework—theoretical model—empirical model. This structure indicates that the thesis, firstly, establishes an analysis framework which abstracts the intrinsic relationship between farmland tenure and agricultural production performance, and points out land-related investment incentive and land market allocation efficiency are the two key factors linking farmland tenure and agricultural production performance. Then, it establishes theoretical models to put forward with the hypothesis about the impact of farmland tenure on land-related investment and land market. Finally, it tests the theoretical hypothesis with the empirical models.The first part of the main body of the thesis employs the investment-decision theory widely used in the firm field to explore the micro-mechanism of the impact of farmland tenure on land-related investment, and examines the theoretical hypothesis. The conclusion is twofold. For one thing, it indicates that farmers are associated their short-term investment decisions with the traditional net present value (NPV) conception, and thus, the farmland tenure security at present does not encourage farmers to make short-term investments on farmland. For another thing, it shows that farmers determine whether to make long-term investments according to the real option value conception because of the distinct uncertainty and irreversibility of long-term investments. Therefore, the farmland tenure security at present does encourage farmers to make long-term investments on farmland.The second part of the main body of the thesis uses the basic household model and transaction cost theory to explore the micro-mechanism of the impact of farmland tenure on land rental market development, and examines the theoretical hypothesis. This part also arrives at a two-fold conclusion. On the one hand, farmers may jointly participate in land renting-in market and off-farm employment market, the decrease in the number of land readjustment and increase in ratio of farmland tenure certificate issue can prompt farmers who are on the edge of of land rent-in markets to go inside of land rental markets, and farmers who have already rented in land to rent in more land. On the other hand, farmers’ participation in land renting-out market and off-farm employment market may not be joint, because land social security function preventing farmers renting out land eventhough they have engaged in off-farm work. But the increase in ratio of farmland tenure certificate issue can also encourage farmers who are on the edge of land rent-out markets to go inside markets, and farmers who have already rented out land to rent out more land.Empirical examination on the impact of the present farmland tenure on agricultural production performance is focused on the third part of the main body of the thesis. On the one hand, the conclusion suggests that the investment incentive effect of the present farmland tenure security on both land production capacity and labor production capacity is minor. The potential reason is that the high uncertainty of agricultural production prompts farmers to replace long-term investments by short-term ones, which weakens the effect of long-term investments on land production capacity and labor production capacity. On the other hand, although the market allocation effect of the present farmland tenure security on land production capacity is moderate, it is significant on labor production capacity. The high allocation effect on labor production capacity comes from the fact that farmland tenure security can encourage farmers to participate in land rental markets, and land can transfer from farmers with low productivity to ones with high productivity via land rental markets.Based on the above research results, the policy implication is as follows:(1) transferring the core of the present farmland tenure reforms from the expansion of farmland tenure function and the extension of farmland tenure period to increase actually farmland tenure security; (2) perfecting the policies and laws relative to farmland tenure, for instance, narrowing the scope of land readjustments in the rural land contracting law, strictly restricting land readjustments as a result of the change in population or land requisition; (3) enhancing the farmland tenure reforms at the village-level or township-level, and taking effective measures to make farmers believe in farmland tenure security, for example, propagandizing farmland tenure policies by media and issuing farmland tenure certificates; (4) accelerating the construction of the rural social security system, releasing the social insurance function of farmland tenure; (5) improving the surrounding environment, for example, augmenting the local governments’investments in the field of agricultural production infrastructures, and reducing the risk of long-term investments from natural environment; enhancing agricultural product price control, and reducing the risk of long-term investments from output markets; creating off-farm employment opportunity and accelerating land rental market development.更多还原