【作者】 李然；

【导师】 冯中朝；

【作者基本信息】 华中农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 随着经济的发展及人民生活水平的不断提高,人们的膳食结构将会发生深刻变化,对稻麦等淀粉类食物消费将逐年下降,而植物油脂等食品的需求将逐年上升。近年来,中国食用植物油的消费与日俱增,国内供需呈极不平衡发展之势。作为弹性极低的一类生活必需品,过度地依赖国外市场势必会“受制于人”且不利于当前国内油料产业的发展,尤其是大豆产业在巨大的冲击下已危机四伏。如何确保中国食用植物油的充分供应及“食物安全”、提振中国油料产业,是目前乃至今后很长一段时间内中国社会面临的一项重大挑战。菜籽油一直以来就是中国居民生活的传统用油,它在国内食用植物油供给中占有非常重要的战略地位(2002年至今菜籽油在国内食用植物油供给中所占比例仅次于大豆油,居第二位,但考虑到大豆油70%以上的原料来自进口及较低的大豆出油率,菜籽油仍是名副其实的最大国产植物油)。油菜是中国最主要的油料作物,也是中国播种面积过亿亩的五个大宗农产品(稻谷、小麦、玉米、大豆和油菜)之一。中国是世界第一油菜生产大国,常年油菜种植面积和年产量分别占世界的1／3。油菜生产不仅关系到亿万消费者的切身利益,更涉及到1亿油农的收入来源、菜籽油加工业1000多万员工的经济利益及国际市场的稳定。因此,油菜生产的增长与否,不仅直接影响未来消费者的福利水平,而且影响到油农增收及菜籽油加工业的发展,进而关系到整个中国乃至世界经济的平稳发展。经济效率是影响油菜生产增长的主要因素,也是经济学研究中的“常青”课题。改革开放以来,中国油菜生产取得了长足的进步,而这种进步与经济效率的改进密不可分。中国油菜生产的经济效率如何、进一步提升的空间有多大、能否支撑油菜生产的持续快速发展等,这些问题的解答对于正确评估未来中国油菜的增产潜力及食用植物油的供需形势具有极其重要的意义。本文在分析中国油菜生产的经济效率过程中,始终坚持规范分析与实证分析相结合的原则,应用农业经济学、新制度经济学、发展经济学、技术经济学、系统工程学等学科的相关原理,以先进的计量分析(如参数法和非参数法)为主体,辅之以必要的比较和统计分析,分别从宏观和微观两个层面探讨了中国油菜生产经济效率的影响因素、未来政策取向,力求使分析由表及里。此外,本文还从经济效率角度分析了中国油菜生产的地区差距及未来的发展态势、重新检定了农户规模与农户效率之间的关系等。本文共分为9章,各章主要内容及结论如下：第1章是导言部分。为避免写作时的“无的放矢”,开篇之初论文提出了三个待解决的问题,这些问题的解决将指引论文研究的进一步深入。结合相关的研究背景,论文指出了研究中国油菜生产经济效率的重要意义。随后介绍了论文的研究思路、方法与框架,并阐述了论文可能的研究创新与不足之处。第2章是文献综述部分。为了更好地对中国油菜生产的经济效率问题进行研究,有必要对前人的研究成果进行梳理,一方面可以借鉴相关的研究成果“为我所用”,另一方面也可避免重复研究。该章的主要内容分为三个部分：一是对经济效率概念的回顾,并给出本文对经济效率的定义；二是有关生产效率的研究动态；三是有关油菜生产的研究综述。分析结果表明：目前国内外鲜有文献研究中国油菜生产的经济效率问题,仅有的两篇文献也仅仅是“蜻蜒点水”,未能对产生经济非效率的深层次原因给予合理的解释。第3章是油菜籽生产的基本概况。为了从总体上把握中国油菜籽生产的基本概况,本章首先分析了世界油菜籽生产的总量特征、区域特征(包括国别特征)等方面,接下来以油菜籽生产的纵向数据为出发点,分析了中国油菜籽生产的发展历程及生产布局等内容,最后分析了油菜籽生产与加工、消费的互动关系。研究结论为：世界油菜生产正逐步呈现出亚洲、欧洲和北美洲“三足鼎立”的新格局；中国是世界油菜生产大国,油菜在中国已有2000多年的栽培历史,但直到改革开放以后油菜生产才有了质的飞跃；中国油菜产品的消费需求及加工业的发展,在未来一段时期内仍将保持快速增长的势头,若油菜生产发展滞后必将阻碍油菜产业的健康发展。第4章是油菜籽生产投入产出特征及国际比较。该章利用时间序列数据纵向分析了中国油菜籽生产成本、收益及单要素生产率变动情况,接着比较了中国各地区油菜籽投入产出状况及成本结构差异,最后国际比较了中国与加拿大的油菜籽成本收益差异,揭示了差异形成的原因。结果显示：近年来中国油菜籽生产成本不断上升,其原因在于劳动力投入成本的快速增长,油菜籽生产收益亦呈上升态势,但并不稳定,其原因在于油菜籽收购价格的频繁波动；中国各地区油菜籽生产投入产出差异显著,江苏、浙江、湖南等省种植优势明显；中国油菜籽生产的收益要高于加拿大,但过高的生产成本导致中国农户种植油菜的利润要低于加拿大,中国油菜籽生产成本高的主要原因在于肥料费用、人工费用和土地费用投入较多。第5章是中国各地区油菜生产的经济效率分析。本章首先利用DEA模型测算了中国各地区油菜生产的技术效率,并将技术效率分解为纯技术效率和规模效率,进一步地利用Tobit模型分析了技术效率的影响因素；其次,运用DEA成本边界测度了中国各地区油菜生产的配置效率,同样采用Tobit回归模型对影响配置效率的因素进行了探讨；最后,运用基于DEA的Malmquist生产率指数测算并分解了中国各地区油菜生产的全要素生产率增长率,然后利用生产函数法和经济增长收敛理论对中国油菜生产的全要素生产率进行测算和收敛性检验。研究结论表明：中国油菜生产技术效率水平较高,各地区油菜生产技术效率差异较小,经济发展水平及农民的整体文化素质对中国油菜生产技术效率具有显著的正效应；配置效率水平总体偏低,省际间配置效率差异并不明显,灌溉率对中国油菜生产的配置效率具有长远影响；技术进步构成TFP增长的主因,中国油菜生产TFP同时存在绝对收敛和条件收敛,各油菜主产省的TFP差距不仅可以缩小,而且最终将稳定在相同的水平上第6、7章是中国农户油菜生产的技术效率和配置效率分析。第6章从农户的微观调查数据出发,利用承认随机冲击与技术效率损失共存的边界生产函数模型分析了农户的技术效率水平,并探讨了农户技术效率的影响因素。分析表明：在农户油菜种植过程中普遍存在技术效率损失,还存在通过改善管理、完善技术等方式提高效率的空间,人力资本因素对提升油菜生产技术效率起到了关键性作用。第7章利用Cobb-Douglas型随机成本边界联立方程组和Tobit回归模型分析了农户的配置效率及其影响因素,并对影响经济效率的因素进行了归纳。研究表明：农户的配置效率总体偏低,若能消除效率损失将会获得更大产出；健康状况、受教育程度、油菜良种补贴对配置效率有显著的正效应。第8章是不同规模农户油菜生产经济效率比较分析。该章按照油菜种植规模的大小,将农户分为五类,首先分析了五类农户油菜生产的经营状况及单要素生产率,然后比较分析了不同规模农户油菜生产的经济效率及影响因素。分析表明：3亩以下小规模农户并未在经济上表现出高效率的特征,部分单要素生产率及经济效率在不同规模农户间呈同样的倒“U”字型变化,暗示着最优“规模经营点”的存在。第9章是基本结论与政策建议。该章在归纳第二章至第八章主要分析结论的基础上,提出了一系列有针对性的政策建议。具体包括：加大冬闲田利用关键技术研究,充分挖掘冬闲田和滩涂地的生产潜力；继续推动健康食用油宣传,提高对国产非转基因菜籽油的消费；扶持油菜籽加工企业、推动加工业优化重组；深化农村新型合作医疗体系建设,确保农民的健康权；完善基层农业技术推广体系,加大油菜新技术成果的推广力度；继续加大对油菜生产的政策性补贴与支持；加快油菜优质新品种研发进程；完善土地流转制度、扩大油菜种植规模；切实减轻油菜种植的劳动力投入,提高油菜生产的轻简化程度；增加农村义务教育财政投入,提高农村义务教育水平。更多还原

【Abstract】 With economic development and continuous improvement of people’s living standards, The people’s diet structure will undergo profound changes, the starchy food consumption would be declining, such as rice and wheat, but vegetable oil and other foodstuffs’ demand would be increased year by year. In recent years, China’s edible vegetable oils consumption is increasing enormously, and domestic supply and demand was a very uneven development trend. As a class of very low elastic necessities, excessive reliance on foreign markets is bound to be "controlled by others" and is not conducive to the development of current domestic oil industry, soybean industry’s "decline" is the best example. How to ensure an adequate supply of China’s edible vegetable oils and "food safety", boosting China’s oil Industry, is indeed Chinese society major challenge in a very long period of time in the future. Rapeseed oil has always been a Chinese tradition of living oil, It occupies a very important strategic position in the domestic supply of edible vegetable oil(rapeseed oil supply proportion after soybean oil since 2002, However, taking into account more than 70% raw materials of soybean oil from imports and lower cost of soybean oil yield, rapeseed oil is still the largest domestically produced vegetable oil). Rape is the most important oil crops in China, is also one of China’s five million acres of sown area over the bulk agricultural products (rice, wheat, corn, soybeans and rapeseed). China is the world’s largest producer of rapeseed, and rapeseed cultivation area and annual output respectively is one third of the world。Rapeseed production is not only related to the vital interests of hundreds of millions of consumers, but relates to 100 million rape farmers’ sources of income, more than 1000 million people’s economic interests of rapeseed oil processing industry and the stability of the international market. Therefore, the growth of rapeseed production or not, not only directly affect the future level of benefits to consumers, but also affected the agricultural income, rapeseed oil-processing industry and the steady and rapid development of the entire national and world’s economy.Economic efficiency is the main factors that affect the growth of rapeseed production, and is also the "evergreen" topic of economics study. Since the reform and opening up, China’s rapeseed production has made considerable progress, and this progress are inseparable with the improvement of economic efficiency. What’s about the economic efficiency of rapeseed production in China, what’s the room for further upgrading and whether is sufficient to support sustained and rapid development of rapeseed production and so on, the answers to these questions are of great importance for the correct assessment of China’s future potential for increasing production and rapeseed vegetable oil supply and demand situation. During analyzing the economic efficiency of China’s rapeseed production, this paper always adhere to normative analysis and the principle of combining empirical analysis, apply principles related to agricultural economics, new institutional economics, development economics, technology, economics, systems engineering and other disciplines, adopt advanced quantitative analysis (eg, parametric and non-parametric method) as the main body and accompanied by the necessary comparisons and statistical analysis, from both the macro and micro levels to disuss influencing factors of economic efficiency of China’s rapeseed production and future policy orientation, Striving to make analysis of outside to the inside. In addition, the article also from the perspective of economic efficiency to analysis regional disparities and the future development trend of China’s rapeseed production, re-examining the the relationship between farmers Scale and household efficiency. This paper is divided into nine chapters, the main contents and conclusions of each chapter are as follows:Chapter 1 is the introductory part. In order to avoid writing a "pointless", the beginning of a preliminary paper presented three issues to be resolved, resolution of these issues will guide the papers further in-depth research. Combined with relevant research background, the paper points out the importance of studying economic efficiency of Chinese rapeseed production, then introduce a research paper ideas, methods and frameworks, and analyze the possible research papers innovation and shortcomings.Chapter 2 is the literature review section. In order to study economic efficiency of rapeseed production in China better, it is necessary to sort out the outcome of previous studies, On the one hand can draw on relevant research results "for our own use", on the other hand it can also avoid duplication of research. The main contents of the chapter is divided into three parts:firstly, it will review the concept of economic efficiency and give this definition of economic efficiency; secondly, we will analysis research Trends on production efficiency; thirdly, research on production of the rapeseed will be given. The results showed that:few literature at home and abroad study economic efficiency of China’s rapeseed production, the only two documents was only a "superficial", and fail to give a reasonable explanation to explain economic non-efficiency.Chapter 3 is the basic profiles of rapeseed production. In order to grasp the overall production of the basic profiles of rapeseed in China, this chapter first analyzes the total amount of the world’s rapeseed production characteristics, regional characteristics (including country-specific) etc., followed by rapeseed production of longitudinal data as a starting point, analysis the development process of China’s rapeseed production and production layout etc., finally analysis the interaction of rapeseed production, processing and consumption. The study concludes that:world rapeseed production is showing out of "tripod" new pattern including Asia, Europe and North America; China is the world’s largest producer of rapeseed, rape in China is for 2,000 years of cultivation history, but not until the reform and opening the rape production has made a qualitative leap; Chinese rapeseed products, consumer demand and the processing industry in the next period of time will maintain the momentum of rapid growth, and the rapeseed production lag will be the "bottleneck" of rape industrial development in the future.Chapter 4 is the input and output characteristics of rapeseed production, international comparisons and regional differences. The chapter longitudinal analyzes China’s rapeseed production costs, income and single-factor productivity changes using time series data, followed by the international comparison of China and Canada differences in costs and benefits of rapeseed, revealing the reasons for differences, finally compares rapeseed input and output status and differences in cost structure of various regions in China. The results showed that:China’s rapeseed production cost is rising in recent years, because of the rapid growth of labor input costs, rapeseed productivity gains also increasing, but not stable, owing to the frequent fluctuations of rapeseed price; China’s rapeseed production gains are higher than Canada, but the high cost of production led to the profits of China’s farmers planted canola lower than Canada, China’s high rapeseed production costs is mainly because of high fertilizer costs, labor costs and land costs; rapeseed production input and output of various regions significantly different from each other, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hunan and other provinces have obvious advantages.Chapter 5 is the economic efficiency analysis of China’s rapeseed production in various regions. Firstly, this chapter use DEA model to calculate the technical efficiency of China’s rapeseed production in various regions, and technical efficiency is decomposed into pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency, then use Tobit model to analyze the factors affecting technical efficiency; Secondly, The use of DEA cost frontier measure the configuration efficiency of China’s rapeseed production in various regions, Similarly using Tobit regression model to discuss factors affecting the allocative efficiency; Finally, the use of DEA-based Malmquist productivity index estimate and decompose the total factor productivity growth rates of China’s rapeseed production in various regions, then use the production function method and the convergence theory of economic growth to calculate on the total factor productivity and test the convergence of China’s rapeseed production. This study concluded that:technical efficiency of China’s rapeseed production is high, regional differences in technical efficiency of rapeseed production is small, level of economic development and the overall cultural quality of farmers has significant positive effect to technical efficiency of China’s rapeseed production; the overall level of allocative efficiency is low, inter-provincial differences in allocative efficiency is not obvious, Irrigation rate has a long-term impact on the configuration of the efficiency of China’s rapeseed production; technological progress constitutes the main reason of TFP growth, China’s rapeseed production TFP exist absolute convergence and conditional convergence, the rape of the TFP gap between the main producing province, can not only reduce, but will eventually stabilize at the same level.Chapter 6 and 7 Chapter is Chinese farmers rapeseed production analysis of technical efficiency and allocative efficiency. Chapter 6 start from the micro household survey data, using recognized random shock and loss of technical efficiency co-exist frontier production function model analyzing the level of technical efficiency of farm households and discussing the factors affecting technical efficiency of farmers. Analysis shows that: there are prevalent in loss of technical efficiency in the process of farmers planting rapeseed, and there is also space to enhance the efficiency through improving management and technology, human capital factors to improve the efficiency of rapeseed production technology has played a key role. In Chapter 7, the use of Cobb-Douglas stochastic cost frontier of simultaneous equations and Tobit regression model analyze the efficiency of the allocation of rural households and its influencing factors, and make a induction about the factors that affect the economic efficiency. Studies have shown that:the overall efficiency of the allocation of rural households is low, if they can eliminate efficiency losses, they will gain greater output; health status, educational level, rape seed subsidies have significant positive effect on the allocation efficiency.Chapter 8 is a comparative analysis of the economic efficiency from different production-scale farmers. Accordancing to the size of rapeseed cultivation, the chapter divided the farmers into five categories, and analyze rapeseed production operating conditions of households and single-factor productivity of the five types, then make a comparative analysis of economic efficiency and its factors of different-scale rapeseed production farmers. Analysis shows that:3 acres and the following small-scale farmers don’t demonstrate the characteristics of high economic efficiency, some single-factor productivity and economic efficiency among farmers in different sizes showed the same inverted "U"-shaped change, suggesting that the optimal "size of operating points" exist.Chapter 9 is the basic conclusions and policy recommendations. This chapter summarizes the key analytical findings from Chapter 2 to Chapter 8 and proposes targeted policy recommendations. These include:increasing the research of key technologies of exploiting winter fallow fields, fully tapping the production potential of winter fallow fields and tidal flats; continuing to promote healthy cooking oil publicity, and raising awareness of domestic non-genetically modified rapeseed oil consumption; supporting for rapeseed processing enterprises, promoting the processing industry optimization and reorganization; deepening the new-type rural cooperative medical care system to ensure the farmers’health right; perfecting primary agricultural technology popularization system, increasing the intensity of the promotion of new rapeseed technologies; continuing to increase policy subsidies and support of rape production; accelerating R & D process of high-quality and new rape varieties; improving the land transfer system, expanding the scale of rapeseed cultivation; effectively reducing the labor input and simplify the degree to cultivating rape by some mechanical; increasing financial input in rural compulsory education and improving the level of rural compulsory education.更多还原