【作者】 张燕林；

【导师】 任治君；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2010， 博士

【副题名】基于虚拟耕地进口视角

【摘要】 改革开放以来,中国经济快速增长,工业化和城市化建设的快速发展导致农业生产资源不断流入非农业部门,特别是引起大量优质耕地流失。随着中国城市化和工业化建设不断加快,耕地面积减少趋势难以逆转,粮食播种面积也将不断缩减,进一步稳定地提高粮食单产的难度也越来越大,而且,中国也是一个自然灾害十分频繁的国家,粮食生产的波动比较大,粮食持续稳定增长潜力受限。同时,受中国人口数量在短期内将持续增加以及人们消费结构升级的影响,将导致对粮食需求不断增加。中国未来将面临粮食供不应求的局面,粮食供需缺口将进一步拉大,粮食安全问题不容乐观。粮食安全既是一国经济发展的必备条件,也是一国政治稳定的基础。随着国内粮食市场与国际粮食市场的联系日益紧密,这就使得中国粮食供给和需求将在较长时期内始终面临着耕地资源不足而需求总量增加的双重压力。一国的粮食安全主要通过自给保证的同时,也可通过国际粮食市场、海外购买或租地种粮来弥补。自20世纪80年代以来,在贸易自由化和资本流动全球化的推动下,国家(地区)之间的各种贸易壁垒和投资限制被不断消除,商品或服务都可以在全球范围内通过国际间的合理分工来进行生产和贸易。粮食尽管作为一种特殊的商品,也可以在一定程度上通过全球范围内的合理分工来进行生产和贸易。目前,世界上大多粮食短缺的国家,如日本、韩国和马来西亚等国主要是靠从国际市场进口粮食和在国外购买土地或租赁土地种粮来保障国内的粮食安全。随着全球化发展的不断深入,未来国际粮食市场将更趋于贸易自由化,通过实施虚拟耕地战略,可以作为保障中国未来粮食安全的辅助手段。虚拟耕地的概念源于虚拟水。国家和地区之间的粮食贸易,从某种意义上讲就是以虚拟耕地的形式进口或出口耕地资源,虚拟耕地进口包括两个部分：一是将从国际市场上直接进口的粮食折合为耕地数量,二是一国为生产粮食在国外购买或租赁土地的数量。中国粮食供给和需求在较长时期内将始终面临着供给总量不足而需求总量增加的双重压力,其焦点问题是：18亿亩的耕地红线能否保住?如果18亿耕地红线保不住,如何保证中国未来粮食的绝对安全?因此,从虚拟耕地进口视角研究中国粮食安全问题就显得尤其重要。目前众多专家学者对如何保证中国未来粮食安全问题进行了深入分析和探讨。大多数学者认为保障中国的粮食安全主要还是靠提高国内的粮食综合生产能力,而粮食综合生产能力的提高又主要通过提高中国粮食生产的科技含量、保护耕地数量和质量、加强农业基础设施建设以及进一步提高农民收入等措施来获得。一些学者提出要善于利用国际国内两个市场来保障中国未来的粮食安全。过去中国的粮食自给率一直保持在95%以上,并为此付出了巨大的经济代价和生态代价,同时,追求粮食的过高自给率,在粮食单产提高有限的情况下,不得不使一些地方把有限的耕地和淡水等资源从经济效益高的作物和产业转移到经济效益低的粮食生产上。此举会造成产品结构单一产业结构升级艰难,财政负担不断加重,而且还有可能会阻碍中国的城市化、工业化进程’。通过参与国际市场,既可以有效地调剂国内粮食余缺,进而保障国内粮食安全,又可以通过粮食贸易,发挥中国农业的比较优势,分享国际分工带来的福利。一些学者认为,为了保证中国未来粮食的绝对安全,特别是在粮食遭到贸易禁运时,中国农业可以实施“走出去”战略,去土地资源和水资源充沛的国家购买或租赁土地来生产粮食,发挥中国农业资源中的劳动力、技术和资本丰富等优势,解决工业化、城市化加速发展阶段面临的耕地持续减少、粮食需求缺口大的问题,同时也可以提高东道国当地落后的农业技术生产水平,带动东道国经济发展,取得双赢。但目前几乎还没有实证分析如何选择中国农业对外投资国,并在此基础上提出农业“走出去”方式及策略等。因此,如何突破现有的研究思路与方法,利用数量经济学模型定量分析和预测中国未来粮食供求状况,在工业化与城市化发展过程中把握中国未来的粮食安全状况以及如何安全又经济地解决中国未来的粮食供需缺口,采取有效的农业政策措施,确保全球化背景下中国国内粮食安全,具有十分重要的理论意义和现实应用意义。本文在对国内外有关中国粮食安全问题研究成果进行系统全面综述的基础上,分析了全球化背景下影响中国粮食安全的因素以及中国粮食安全现状及前景。当前影响中国粮食安全的主要因素有耕地和水资源、粮食种植收益、新工农“剪刀差”以及中国的粮食政策等,中国粮食安全虽无近忧但我们不得不远虑。由于中国近几年的粮食丰收,粮食库存量较高,目前粮食供需基本平衡且稍有剩余。但随着中国经济的继续发展,耕地资源的不断减少,未来将出现较大的粮食缺口。本文首先利用多元线形回归模型对影响中国粮食综合生产能力的因素进行了实证分析,粮食总产量为粮食播种面积与粮食单产的乘积,通过对影响中国粮食单产的因素进行实证分析,得出影响中国粮食单产的因素有：每万亩化肥使用量和农田受灾率、农田灌溉率、每万亩农机总动力、每万亩农业劳动力人数和农业支出占财政支出的比重,其中起主要影响的是每万亩化肥使用量和农田受灾率。接下来本文对影响中国粮食播种面积的因素也进行了实证分析,结果表明上一年耕地面积、上一年粮食播种面积和上一年农民种粮收益都对粮食播种面积数量有影响,其中上一年耕地面积和上一年粮食播种面积对本年粮食播种面积的影响程度要大于上一年农民种粮收益对本年粮食播种面积的影响程度,其中农业支出占财政支出的比重对粮食播种面积影响不显著的主要原因是由于目前中国财政对农业的投入不足,同时,通过这个实证分析也可以得出要提高中国的粮食播种面积需要提高中国农民的种粮收益。其次,本文利用ARMA和GARCH模型对中国未来的粮食供需量进行了预测并与以前学者的预测结果进行了比较,得出本文的预测结果是比较合理的,实证结果表明到2030年中国粮食产量将达到5.853亿吨,如果按0.1%的人口增长速度计算,粮食需求量为6.627亿吨,粮食供需缺口最高将达7740万吨。由于城市化和工业化建设即将进入加速发展阶段,耕地面积减少趋势不可逆转,而粮食单产进一步提高的难度加大,为了保障中国粮食的绝对安全,我们有必要实施虚拟耕地进口策略---在国际市场上进口粮食的同时实施中国农业“走出去”也称为中国农业对外投资战略。由于国际市场粮食供给量的有限性以及中国一旦大量进口可能会产生“大国效应”1,从而影响其它粮食进口大国的福利,因此本文主要探讨了虚拟耕地进口的第二种形式即中国农业“走出去”战略。最后,本文对于中国农业如何“走出去”的问题进行了实证分析,根据跨国公司对外投资理论和农业投资条件,选取了具有代表性的6个农业投资国,并对这些国家的国内粮食生产价格和国际价格进行了综合比较,根据现实可行性和经济合理性原则得出：中国农业去巴西投资大豆生产；去泰国投资大米生产；去俄罗斯投资小麦生产；去阿根廷投资玉米生产。这样,不仅政治上可行而且还可获取经济收益。这里需要特别指出的是,虽然以埃及为代表的非洲国家在生产任何一种粮食产品的国内生产者价格都比国际市场上高甚至也比其他几个东道国家的国内生产者价格也要高,从经济上说,去非洲投资农业生产不具有经济性。但从道义上讲,我们有义务去帮助比我们更穷的国家解决他们的粮食安全问题。非洲经济发展十分落后,目前还有众多的贫民由于买不起粮食而挨饿,特别是遭受了2008年的世界粮食危机和全球金融危机后,更进一步加剧了非洲国家的粮食安全问题。虽然目前中国也还不是发达国家,经济基础实力不是很强大,但至少已经基本上解决了老百姓的温饱问题,我们有义务去帮助非洲一些穷国,尽快帮他们解决温饱问题。非洲潜在的耕地资源丰富,现有很多荒地没有人去开垦,粮食单产也十分低下,而且非洲政府对农业的外来直接投资也持十分欢迎的态度。我们可以把中国现有的农业技术带去非洲国家发展当地农业,虽然目前可能运输成本有点高,一般情况下我们不会把粮食运回国内来销售,但由于中国的粮食供需状况与国际粮食市场联系越来越紧密,每年非洲国家大量从国际市场进口粮食来满足当地人们的生活需要,因此解决了非洲的温饱问题间接地也起到了保障中国粮食安全的作用。而且从长远看,随着其他国家对非洲农业投资的增加,非洲国家的基础设施将会不断完善,中国农业投资非洲前景非常好。总之,中国农业“走出去”过程中要充分发挥中国的资金、技术、经验优势,结合一些发展中国家农业资源和市场优势,借助援外力量,营造有利的合作环境和坚实的合作基础,实现国家、企业和受援国三方共赢。本文研究的主要框架如下：本文一共由五大部分组成。第一部分即第一章的“导论”,主要阐述研究的目的、研究意义、国内外研究动态、研究结构与主要内容、研究思路与方法和研究的创新之处。全面、系统地总结和评述了国内外学者关于保障中国粮食安全的措施等相关文献研究方法及其研究结论。第二部分即第二章。这一部分主要阐述有关粮食安全的基本概念及理论基础。首先对有关粮食安全和虚拟耕地相关的概念进行了界定,得出耕地和土地两个概念是有差异的,土地范围比耕地范围更广,一些土地根本无法转为耕地。然后对虚拟耕地进口的理论基础----李嘉图比较优势理论、赫克歇尔-俄林的要素禀赋理论和投资贸易转化理论进行了深入分析,得出国际间会因生产要素禀赋的不同而引起的生产要素比价差异将通过两种途径逐步缩小,最终实现生产要素价格均等化。第一条途径是生产要素的直接流动,第二条途径是生产要素的间接流动。前者称为直接均等化,后者为间接均等化。同时国际贸易与国际投资可以相互替代,但并不相互排斥。第三部分由第三章到第五章组成。这一部分主要阐述了世界粮食危机背景下中国的粮食安全现状及其前景分析,分析了中国目前的耕地资源现状。中国耕地资源数量紧逼18亿亩的耕地“红线”,保住中国耕地“红线”十分困难,而且随着中国农业化和城市化建设即将进入高速发展阶段,耕地资源将面临进一步减少,而随着中国人口数量的继续增加和人们消费结构的升级,粮食需求量将继续稳步增加。本文应用ARMA和GARCH模型对未来20年中国的粮食产量和消费量进行了预测,根据三种不同的人口增长率分别计算出了中国在2010-2030年的粮食供需缺口数量,得出中国未来粮食安全状况不容乐观。第四部分由第六章和第七章组成。这一部分主要分析了全球粮食贸易状况及中国进口虚拟耕地的必要性和可行性。根据前面节的预测,到2030年中国粮食供需缺口最高将达到7740万吨,而目前国际市场的粮食贸易量大约为2.3亿吨,为了保证中国未来的粮食安全,我们有必要实施虚拟耕地进口战略---从国际市场上直接进口粮食与实施中国农业“走出去”战略或者称为中国农业对外投资战略。根据前面的分析我们知道,与自己生产粮食相比,中国从国际市场进口粮食更能提高中国的福利。但我们却不能把中国未来的粮食供需缺口主要寄托于国际市场,毕竟国际粮食市场的贸易量是有限的,如果未来的粮食缺口量完全靠从国际市场进口来弥补,则不仅不现实也不安全,而且即使可以从国际市场进口到中国所需要的粮食则也是以牺牲其他粮食外贸依存度高的国家利益为代价的,不利于全球资源的优化配置。本文创新性地提出为了保证中国未来粮食的绝对安全,中国农业可以实施“走出去”战略,去土地资源丰富的国家购买或者租借土地来进行粮食生产,并对中国农业“走出去”投资的可行性进行了分析。作为一个拥有较先进农业生产技术和大量劳动力、资本可供输出的国家,作为一个已经在受援国为自己的农业技术和农业专家树立了良好声誉的国家,中国发展海外农业开发的潜力很大,有能力为其它国家、特别是缺粮国家增加粮食生产做出较大贡献。从非洲、东南亚到俄罗斯、中亚、巴西、阿根廷,都是中国推动海外农业开发的潜在合作伙伴,不少发展中国家也颇为欢迎中国投资’。根据跨国对外投资理论,通过对粮食国际市场价格和东道国内的国内粮食生产者价格进行比较,选出了适合中国农业对外投资的具有代表性的6个国家。第五部分即论文的第八章。这一部分根据前面的研究结果,从稳定和提高粮食生产、缩减粮食产需缺口、提高粮食自给率等角度,提出了实现中国粮食安全的政策启示并对整篇文章进行了总结。虽然中国未来粮食会出现较大的供需缺口,但随着全球化经济的进一步深化,全球生产要素在各国间的流动不断加强以及中国拥有的丰富的劳动力和先进的农业生产技术,中国可以采用增加虚拟耕地进口量来弥补中国未来的粮食需求缺口,从而为保障中国粮食安全起补充作用。通过对本论文的研究,可以为保障中国粮食安全提供思路,从而为政府相关部门决策提供参考,促使中国经济得到持续健康发展,使中国社会更加和谐。由于本人时间和精力有限,本研究难免有不完善的地方,本文只选择了6个代表国家作为研究对象,是对中国农业对外投资进行的粗略的研究,笔者还可以扩展东道国数量,从东道国的各个方面进行综合研究,在数据收集可行的条件下,采用成本收益方法来选择适合中国农业对外投资的国家。本文可能具有以下三个方面的学术创新：(1)在理论上,本文在吸收专家学者现有研究成果的基础上,从新的视角----虚拟耕地进口,运用国际贸易与国际投资理论,结合保障国内粮食供给的安全性和经济性,研究中国未来的粮食安全问题；(2)在概念上,本文对虚拟耕地的概念进行了创新,在原有定义的基础上对虚拟耕地概念进行了扩充和拓展,定义虚拟耕地是指粮食进口国家或地区使用了非本国或本地区的耕地资源这一事实,从数量上讲,虚拟耕地进口不仅包括从国际市场上直接进口粮食折合的耕地数量,而且还包括在国外购买或租借的耕地数量；(3)在实践上,本文根据安全性和经济性考虑,综合利用粮食国际市场价格和各个不同的国内粮食生产者价格,通过对所选择的几个东道国国内粮食生产者价格进行实证分析,得出了适合中国农业“走出去”的投资国别选择。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since China has executed the Policy of Reformation and Opening, Chinese economy develops very rapidly, the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization has induced agricultural production resources to pour out of agricultural sectors continuously, especially that lot of arable lands have turned into construction lands。Be faced with the tendency of the reduction of total mount of cultivated land resources, increasing grain yield per unit becomes more and more difficult, and it often happens Natural-Disaster in China, grain production’s fluctuation is very great, grain continuous and steady growth’s potentiality is limited, At the same time, as Chinese population is very great and continues to grow in the short term and people’s consumption structure will be increased, which will induce that the sum of demand of grain increase ceaselessly, in the future, Chinese grain will be faced with the situation of in short supply, the situation of grain security is not optimistic in the future.Grain security is not only the basis of a country’s economy development, but also is the basis of a country politic stability. With the close connection between domestic and foreign country, which makes China will be confronted with the double pressure of production materials insufficiency and the total demand enhancement。In current world, a country’s grain mainly depends on self-support, meanwhile, it is also compensated by international grain market. Since in 1980, under the circumstances of global integration, all kinds of trade barriers and investment restriction were eliminated ceaselessly, commodity or service can be produced and traded by international division of labor. At present, most of grain shortage countries mainly depend on importing grain from international grain market and buying or renting cultivated land in abundant land resource country to ensure domestic grain security, such as Japan, Korea and Malaysia etc. International grain market will tend to trade liberalization in the future, by implementing virtual cultivated land strategy, which can be a means of ensuring our grain security。The concept of virtual cultivated land comes from virtual water, the trade which happens among countries and regions is to import or export cultivated land resource in the form of virtual cultivated land, virtual cultivated land import is the land which is converted into grain import amount and the land amount which our country go to overseas to buy or rent land, as China will be faced with double pressure of production materials insufficiency and the total demand enhancement, its main problem is:whether 1.8 billion mu cultivated "red line" can be protected or not? If the 1.8 billion mu cultivated "red line" can’t be protected, how to secure our country’s future grain security? therefore, basing on the angle of virtual cultivated import to discuss Chinese grain security is very important。Currently, although many scholars discuss on how to secure our country’s future grain security, most of them think that we mainly depend on increasing our country’s grain productivity to guarantee our grain security, and the increasing of grain productivity must base on certain cultivated land; some scholars put forward that we should take good use of international and domestic market. In the past, China constantly keep 95 percent of grain self-sufficiency, which pay out great economic and ecological cost and even hinder our country’s the course of industrialization and urbanization. Importing virtual cultivated land can adjust grain sufficiency and shortage, which can guarantee a country’s grain security, and by grain trade can exert our country’s agriculture comparative advantage, moreover share the welfare which international division of labor brings; at the same time, a few scholars think we should implement the strategy of "going out" in order to guarantee our Chinese grain absolute security, going to the countries which have abundant cultivated land resource to plant grain, and take good use of our labor advantage, capital advantage, and agricultural technology advantage, which can mitigate the problem of decreasing cultivated land during industrialization and urbanization and meanwhile which can improve host country’s agriculture technology, and gain mutual benefits. But now there are almost few empirical analysises on how to select overseas agriculture investment countries, discuss Chinese agriculture, "going out" means and strategies. Therefore, how to break through existing research ideas and methods, use quantitative models to analyze and forecast China’s future grain supply and demand, during the process of industrialization and urbanization grasping the situation of China’s future food security, and how to solve China’s grain supply and demand gap safely and economically and adopt effective agricultural policy measures to ensure China’s domestic food security under the context of globalization on, which is of great theoretical and practical significance of application。The main framework of this dissertation is as follows:This paper is composed of five major parts. The first part is the first chapter, "Introduction", The first part was about the current literature review in this dissertation and explain the dynamic significance of this research at home and abroad, structure and main contents of the ideas and methods and research innovations. Summarize and review comprehensively and systematically domestic and foreign scholars on securing China’s grain safety measures and research ways。The second part is the second chapter in this dissertation. This part mainly elaborates the basic concepts and the theoretical basis of grain security, analyze the concept difference between land and cultivated land, between virtual cultivated land and virtual land, then analyze the theoretical basis of virtual land import-Ricardian theory of comparative advantage and the Heckscher-Ohlin factor endowment theory, then reach a conclusion that international trade can make factor price equalize。The third part includes from the third to fifth chapters, this part mainly elaborates Chinese grain security situation and prospect of future grain security under the background of the world food crisis, analyze Chinese cultivated land resource situation and think it difficult to keep the "read line" of 18 million mu cultivated land. Then, apply ARMA and GARCH models to predict China’s future grain production and consumption,and according to three different population growth rate calculated the gap of china’s grain supply and demand in 2010-2030, and so know China’s grain security situation is not optimistic。Part four consists of Chapter six and Chapter seven, this part analyzes the situation of the global grain trade and the need for China’s importing virtual land. According to the previous section predicts that China’s grain supply and demand gap in 2030 will reach 77.4 million tons maximum, in order to ensure China’s future grain security, we have to implement virtual cultivated land import strategy--directly imported grain from the international market and carry out Chinese agriculture, "going out" Strategy or named the Agricultural Foreign Investment Strategy. According to previous analysis we know that, compared to produce grain by ourselves, the Chinese grain which are imported from the international market can increase our country’s welfare. But as the international grain market is limited, we can’t place our grain gap on it, even if we can import the grain we need from the international market which is also at the expense of other countries’welfare. Therefore, this dissertation suppose that Chinese agriculture can be implemented "going out" strategy, going to abundant land countries to purchase or lease land for grain production in order to ensure the grain’s absolute security in the future。Part five is the Chapter eight. According to the previous research results, put forward some reasonable suggestions and give a summary for full paper. Although the China’s grain supply and demand gap will appear larger, with the further development of economic globalization, the global production factor mobility between countries will be strengthened. In order to satisfy our country’s future grain demand, we can adopt virtual cultivated land strategy to ensure China’s future grain security. Through the study of this paper, we could provide some ideas for ensuring Chinese grain security, which make our country’s economy develop healthily and continuously, make our society more harmonious。As my time and ability is limited, this study will inevitably exist some imperfections, this paper is only carried out on Chinese agriculture foreign investment’s rough research, the author can also do some comprehensive study based on cost-benefit approach。This paper may have the following three aspects academic innovation:(1) In theory, this paper absorbed some experts’existing research results. based virtual cultivated land import angle, use international trade and international investment theory to Study China’s grain security issues;(2) In concept, this paper innovate the concept of virtual cultivated land, based on the original definition of Virtual cultivated land, we expanded the definition of Virtual cultivated land import, this paper’s virtual cultivated land import not only includes directly import grain from the international market but also go to foreign countries to purchase or lease land for producing grain, the paper mainly refers to the "virtual" is also foreign land;(3) In practice, considering the security and economy of getting grain, I take use of grain international market prices and domestic grain producers price in the different countries to compare, then find appropriate agricultural investment countries。更多还原