【作者】 李东；

【导师】 梁中堂；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 人口学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 2007年3月8日,胡锦涛总书记在参加十届全国人大五次会议重庆代表团审议时,为重庆工作“定向导航”,高瞻远瞩地作出了三大定位,即努力把重庆加快建设成为西部地区的重要增长极、长江上游地区的经济中心、城乡统筹发展的直辖市。本文结合将重庆建设成为重要增长极的战略决策,研究在此背景下人口流动的历史、现状和趋势,以及人口流动对经济增长极的促进作用。人口迁移是人口学研究的对象,人口流动则是中国特有的户籍制度放宽限制后出现的特殊现象。自中国推行渐进式改革以来,人口流动成为一种发展现象,在短短30年间,从受到制度性抑制到获得政策认同,逐渐成为社会常态,对其进行研究有着重要的现实意义和理论意义。在改革开放早期,我国都是以刘易斯式的劳动力无限供给的二元经济,直到2004年珠江三角洲地区出现“民工荒”、“技工荒”现象,“一个从劳动力无限供给到劳动力有限剩余的转变正在发生”。人口流动浪潮也从上世纪九十年代的单向流动逐步转变为双向流动,在国家实施西部大开发后,回流成为新世纪的又一社会景观。经过30年的发展,珠三角、长三角、环渤海地区已经成为东部地区三个重要经济增长极。在国家不断布局“改革试验区”的背景下,重庆被要求发展为西部重要经济增长极,加之农村劳动力“有限剩余”,如何引导人口流动促进重庆经济增长极尽快形成和可持续发展,是决策者面临的一个重要难题。目前,将人口流动的一般规律和重庆经济社会的特殊性在理论上结合起来研究的文献较少,更缺乏对人口流动转折点、人口流动与重庆经济发展阶段的关系以及反映人口流动趋势性特征的研究。人口流动、经济增长极是人口学、管理学、社会学和经济学研究的范畴,而学界目前在某种程度上还存在着“不同学科之间还不能进行有效对话,不同学科对人口流动问题的研究还处于自说自话的状态,妨碍了研究的深入”的情况。本文试图运用这些学科的结合点,将人口流动作为重庆经济发展的基本红线来把握,防止对人口流动的研究游离于经济发展和社会发展之外,既从宏观角度发表见解,也从微观角度进行细心考察和小心求证,防止出现研究的“空心化”。将人口流动这种重大的发展现象融合于重庆的经济发展之中,从逻辑和历史的视角出发,通过定量和定性分析重庆经济增长极形成的历史积淀和现实动力。在我国经济发展的新阶段,重庆要再现当年东部的人口流入现象已不可能,主要原因有：一是重庆不可能拥有改革开放初期东部地区得天独厚的政策优势；二是重庆城镇居民收入与全国城乡居民收入差距不可能有当初东部地区与全国的差距那么大,不能形成收入差距的“势能”；三是经过30年的改革发展,与人口流动相关的制度正在经历一个新的转折点,户籍制度还没有完全放开,全国区域、城乡一体的社会保障制度还没有完全建立起来,这些制度变革正处于孕育之中。事实上,重庆的人口流动在开埠后就已出现,在抗战时期,省际间的人口流动在当时来说规模和范围也是最大的,只是城乡人口流动规模较小。大规模的农村劳动力向城市流动,始于20世纪80年代后期,即农村一次性改革效应释放完成,城乡收入差距再次拉大时。进入新世纪,城乡间和区县间的人口流动呈加速趋势,但农村劳动力外出寻找非农就业时,由于政府公共治理模式及相关制度建设的滞后,还不能实现农民身份向市民身份的转变,在一定程度阻碍了人口的城乡流动。那么重庆如何在现有约束条件下成为西部重要经济增长极呢?本文提出了重庆在经济增长极形成进程中,户籍制度和社会保障制度是涉及城乡关系的重要制度,是人口流动和农民工市民化的核心制度,也是政府治理的重要内容。另外,本文还提出了在现阶段重庆要成为西部重要经济增长极,需要提高流动人口质量和优化流动人口结构,统筹国内外两个劳动力市场,加大高素质人才流入,把人口资源存量转变为人力资本优势,并引导经济腹地的劳动力资源流入。本文的结构和各部分要点如下：首先,在绪论中主要阐明了研究背景、主要目的、意义、研究方法,以及研究的数据来源和本文的结构安排。将人口流动与经济增长极结合起来研究是重庆未来一个时期发展的重大经济社会问题,有利于在建设经济增长极的进程中把握好公共政策的决策及推进经济改革和社会制度变革的时机、目标模式及操作步骤。其次,综述了人口流动及经济增长极理论研究文献。主要介绍了人口流动的理论及类型,国内外劳动力迁移理论的演进及国际上相关最新研究成果,国内外对经济增长极理论以及将二者结合进行研究的理论成果,给出了本文对经济增长极的界定。前人研究成果在某种程度上为本文的研究主题提供了理论支持。第三,阐明了人口流动与经济增长极的关系。主要介绍了人口流动与经济增长极的互动关系和辨证关系。分析了人口流动对经济增长极形成和发展的重要作用。同时,进一步从理论上说明人口流动与经济增长极形成的相互作用机理。第四,阐明了人口流动与近现代重庆经济发展。主要介绍了人口流动与重庆近代经济发展,人口流动与重庆开埠时期经济发展,人口与辛亥革命至抗战时期重庆经济发展,抗战时期重庆的人口状况,抗战时期重庆的经济发展状况。指出了战争形态也是影响人口流动的重要因素以及流动人口质量对抗战时期重庆经济发展的重要推动作用。从历史的视角分析了重庆人口流动与经济发展相互演进的过程。第五,阐明了人口流动与当代重庆经济发展的关系。主要介绍了三线建设对重庆经济发展的重要提升作用,三峡工程重庆库区的人口迁移。当代重庆人口流动的特征,流入人口和流出人口的人口学特征,农村劳动力流动的影响因素。重点从产业结构、所有制结构、城镇化程度进行分析；流动人口结构对经济增长的影响分析,流动人口质量对经济增长的影响分析,人口流动对经济增长的效应分析,人口流动与产业结构升级的相关性分析,人口流动与重庆经济发展的灰色关联度分析。指出了人口大进大出对经济增长的影响更大以及流动人口质量对经济增长的重要推动作用。在当前重庆人口流出还大于人口流入的情况下,整体人口流动对经济增长的正面效应大于单纯的人口流入对经济增长的影响。第六,阐明了经济增长极形成与发展中的人口流动。从经济增长极的构成要素,经济增长极的两个效应,打造经济增长极的必需条件；增长极形成的评价指标体系进行分析。重庆产业增长极、城市增长极,区域增长极三个层面运用因子分析法和主成分分析法进行评价分析；增长极理论中的人口流动研究,其中主要分析了经济增长区域人口流动的变化与调整,人口流动与经济增长极的形成,经济增长极效应下的人口流动,特别是极化效应和扩散效应下的人口流动及人口流动对重庆经济增长的极化效应。指出重庆在建设经济增长极的进程中以人口流入推动增长极的形成更重要,不以本市劳动力转移为单一目标,而是应以经济腹地人口流入和拓宽国际视野来引导人口流动推动经济增长极形成。第七,提炼了研究的主要结论和政策建议。主要依据前面几部分分析的具体情况,提炼出研究的主要结论,并提出相应的政策建议,以及今后需要进一步研究的问题。指出流动人口质量和结构是经济增长极形成和发展的重要因素,重庆开埠、战时陪都、三线建设是重庆经济增长极形成的历史机遇期,直辖是经济增长极形成的现实动力。吸纳国内外高素质人才、提高流动人口质量、提升人力资本、促进农民工市民化、加强流动人口的统计监测、提高对流动人口的服务水平、改革政府的公共治理模式是今后重庆建设西部重要经济增长极亟需重视的问题。本文在以下几个方面有些新意：1.将人口流动与经济增长极结合起来研究,并深入分析人口流动的规律性与经济增长极特征的关系。2.从重庆人口流动与经济增长的历史视角分析人口流动在经济发展进程中所起的作用以及经济增长极形成的历史积淀。3.分析了人口流动与经济结构、产业结构、就业结构以及流动人口结构、流动人口质量对经济增长的相互影响的效应。4.建立评价经济增长极的指标体系,以及分析了在经济增长极极化效应和扩散效应下的人口流动问题。本文的不足之处是缺乏用人口流动的更细分化的时间序列数据来建立模型对经济增长、工业化进程相互关系进行准确的刻画,对一些政策的临界点和制度改革的时机难以准确量化。更多还原

【Abstract】 On March 8,2007, General secretary Hu Jintao of the Communist Party of China attended the Fifth Session of the Tenth National People’s Congress of Chongqing delegation,"directed navigation"for Chongqing, Foresight to locate three positions, That efforts to accelerate construct Chongqing to become an important growth pole in the western region,an economic center of the upstream region’s of the Yangtze River, a municipality of the co-ordinate development of urban and rural. This paper combinate the strategic decision to become an important growth pole of Chongqing, Research in this context, the history of population migration, current situation and trends, and the role in promoting economic growth pole of population movements.Population migration is the study object of the demographic and other disciplines, population movement is unique particular phenomenon household registration system after the relaxation of the rural-urban migration and cross-regional population movement in China.Since China carried out gradual reform, Population mobility become a developing phenomenon in the 30-years, from restrained by the institution to obtain the policy approval step by step. And gradually become normal. It is significant that research in theory and practice. In the early era of reforming and opening-up, in China which is a dual economy that unlimited labor supply of Lewis-style,until 2004 the "shortage of migrant workers", "shortage of skilled workers" phenomenon had happened in the Pearl River Delta region." from the unlimited supply of labor to limited to the remainder of the labor force is undergoing changes." Wave of population mobility from the 1990’s and gradually transformed one-way flow into two-way flow, after the Western development, returning to become another social landscape in the new century.After 30 years of development, Pearl River Delta region, Yangtze River Delta region and the Bohai Sea region had become the three major economic growth pole in Eastern China. Keep the layout of the national "reform experiment zone" context, Chongqing municipality was asked to develop a very important economic growth pole in Western, with the rural labor force "limited surplus", how to guide the population mobility to promote the economic growth pole of Chongqing and sustainable development as soon as possible is an important dilemma by the decision-makers.At present, It is so little that the research literature integrate between the general law of population mobility and the particularity of Chongqing to unify in theory, More lack of studying the turning point of population mobility, the relationship between population mobility and stage of economic development in Chongqing as well as the characteristic of population mobility trend. Population mobility, economic growth pole is the researching areas of demography、management、sociology and economics. At present, to some extent, the academic world still exist "between different disciplines can not carry out effective dialogue, different disciplines of studying population mobility is still in self state, prevented from in-depth studying." This paper attempt to find the point of intersection of these subjects, as a basic red line to grasp the population mobility in the economic development of Chongqing, To prevent researching on population mobility drifted away from the economic development and social development. Not only give opinions from macro perspective, but also from careful observation of the micro-perspective and careful confirmation, to prevent the study of "empty". Integrate the significant development phenomenon of population mobility into the economic development of Chongqing, from the perspective of the history and logic by quantitative and qualitative analysis of the formation of economic growth pole of history Chongqing accumulation and reality power. In economic new development stage of China, It is impossible that reproduce the phenomenon of population mobility of Eastern China in Chongqing. There are the main causes, in the first place, there has no unique advantage of the policy in Chongqing compare with the Eastern China,because the still state of calm in rural area throughout the country in the early era of reforming and opening up; in the second place, industrial structure in Eastern China is more advanced than Chongqing’s as a result of the original accumulation of the history; in the third place, the gap between the economic growth and people’s income in Chongqing and the national average less than those between Eastern China and the national average; in the fourth place, after 30 years of development, population mobility associated with the systems is experiencing a new turning point. Household registration system has not been fully liberalized, national regional, urban and rural social security system integration has not been fully established, change of these system is inoculation.In fact, the population mobility had happened in Chongqing after opening the door of the city, in the period of Anti-Japanese War, maybe it was the largest that the inter-province population mobility of the proportion and scope in that time, which is only less than present between urban and rural areas. Large-scale population mobility of rural labor into cities began in the late 80’s of the 20th century, that is, the rural Reform and the release of a one-time effect when urban-rural income gap widened again. Since the new century, between urban and rural areas,between districts and counties were to accelerate the trend of population mobility, but the rural labor force to find out the non-agricultural employment, as the delayed of the government’s public management model and construction of related system, Can not t change the peasant-workers into the citizen identity. So how to become such an important economic growth pole bound under the condition in Chongqing in the Western China?In this paper, the economic growth pole of Chongqing in the formation process, the household registration system and the social security system in urban and rural areas in relation to the fundamental relationship, are the core system of the population mobility and the peasant-workers citizenship, but also are the basic elements of govern model. In addition, this paper also put forward at this stage, Chongqing become the important economic growth pole in the Western China, must improve the quality of population mobility and optimize the structure of the population mobility, co-ordinate domestic and foreign labor market, increase the inflow of high-quality personnel resources,and stock advantage of human capital,and guide the economic hinterland of the inflow of labor resources.The structure and main points in this paper are as follows:Firstly, in the preface clarified the context, the main purpose,significance of research methods, research data sources and structure of this paper of the study. It is a major economic and social problem that research the population mobility and economic growth pole in a period of the future development in Chongqing, and in favor of grasping public policy decision-making well, This paper gives the definition of economic growth pole,promote economic reform and social change the target patterns and steps in the timing system.Secondly, clarified the population mobility and economic growth pole research summary. Main introduced the type of the theory of population mobility, and the evolution of domestic and international labor migration theory, and the latest international research results related to economic growth at home and abroad,as well as the theory of a combination of both theoretical research results, The results of previous studies to some extent provide a theoretical support.Thirdly, clarified the relations of population mobility and economic growth pole. Main introduced the interactive and dialectical relationship of population mobility and economic growth pole, Analyze the important role of population mobility to economic growth pole formation and development. At the same time, from the theory further introduced that the interaction mechanism of the population mobility and economic growth pole.Forthly, clarified the population mobility and economic development of modern and contemporary Chongqing. Main introduced the population mobility and modern economic development of Chongqing, population mobility and economic development during opening Chongqing port,Population and economic development of the Revolution to the War of Resistance and Against Japan, in the Anti-Japanese War of the population situation in Chongqing, during Anti-Japanese War in Chongqing Pointed out the war form is also an important factor of population mobility, as well as the quality of population mobility on the economic development of Chongqing during the war an important role in promoting. Analyszed the process of mutual evolution from the perspective of the history of economic development and population mobility in Chongqing.Fifthly, clarified the population mobility and the contemporary economic development in Chongqing. Main introduced the economic development of the Three-line Construction in Chongqing, enhanced the role,Three Gorges reservoir area in Chongqing population migration, the characteristic of population mobility in Contemporary Chongqing, demographic characteristic of the population inflow and outflow, analyzed the impact factor of rural labor mobility, an analysis of the focus from the industrial structure, ownership structure, the degree of urbanization; the analysis of Population mobility in the structure of the impact on economic growth, analyzed the correlation of the quality of population mobility and economic growth, analyzed population mobility on the effect of economic growth, population mobility and the upgrading of the industrial structure, the gray relationship between population mobility and economic development of Chongqing. Pointed out that the the greater impact of economic growth by large scale population mobility, the population’s major impact on economic growth. an important role in promoting growth of economy by the quality of population mobility. the current population mobility of Chongqing is also greater than the influx of population outflow, population mobility as a whole impact on economic growth than simply population inflow.Sixthly, clarified the population mobility of formation and development of economic growth pole. Mainly introduced the constituent elements of the economic growth pole and the two effects of economic growth pole, which are the necessary conditions of economic growth pole; The evaluation index system of the formation of economic growth pole; Chongqing industrial growth pole, urban growth pole, regional growth pole, using three dimensions factor analysis and principal component analysis method evaluation and analysis.study population mobility of the growth pole theory. Main analyzed the economic growth of regional population change and adjust, the population mobility and the formation of economic growth pole, the effect of population mobility in the economic growth pole, especially the polarization effect and the spillover effects of population mobility and population flows on economic growth of Chongqing polarization effect. Pointed out that the influx of population is more important in the process of economic growth of the construction in Chongqing promote the formation of economic growth pole, do not set a single goal by labor force in our city, but should be based on economic hinterland population inflow and broaden the international perspective to guide the population mobility to promote formation of economic growth pole.Seventhly, Summarized the main conclusion and policy recommendation. Extract the main conclusion based on the previous analysis of the specific circumstance and policy recommendation, as well as the future question need to further researching. Pointed out that the migration of economic growth quality and structure of a very important factor in the formation and development,Pointed out that opening Chongqing port, wartime capital, Three-line Construction is the formation of economic growth pole in the history of great historical opportunity for accumulation, the reality power of economic growth which became a Municipality. Attract high-quality talent, improve the quality of population mobility and enhance human capital, the promotion of migrant workers and members of the public, strengthen the statistical monitor the floating population, improve the standard of service of the floating population, the reform of the Government’s public governance model is the future to form the important economic growth pole of Chongqing in Eastern China,Which need pay more attention.In this paper, some new ideas are as follows:1. In the demography and economics to find a bonding point, combined with research between population mobility and economic growth pole, and in-depth analysis of the law population mobility and economic growth pole characteristic.2. From the historical perspective analyzed the role of population mobility in the economic development process, economic growth pole as well as the history of the formation of accumulation.3. Analyzed population mobility and economic structure, industrial structure, employment structure and the structure of population mobility, the effect of mutual influence of quality of population mobility on economic growth.4. Established the evaluation system of economic growth pole, as well as analyzed economic growth pole in the polarization effect and the spillover effect of population mobility.Inadequacies of this paper is lack of sub-population mobility of the time-series data to create a model to accurate portrait of the relationship between the process of industrialization and economic growth, which is difficult to accurate quantify some of the critical point of policy and opportunity of institution reforming.更多还原