【作者】 田林；

【导师】 齐二石；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 随着城市化进程的加快和社会经济的快速发展,社会对水资源的需求量不断增加,使许多城市面临着水资源危机,水问题已成为城市可持续发展的瓶颈。实现水资源的可持续优化利用,是一项关系到城市生存与可持续发展的紧迫性任务。这就要求对水资源进行科学管理、优化利用。要达到上述目的,合理的水资源综合规划是关键,而合理的水资源综合规划需要针对对象系统特征的水资源综合规划方法的支持。本文以经济新区(New Economic Zone,NEZ)为研究对象,进行水资源综合规划方法及应用实践研究,其目的在于提高区域水资源综合规划的科学性、合理性和可行性,达到区域水资源最优配置,促进区域社会、经济、环境协调发展,主要工作如下。首先,进行经济新区(NEZ)社会、经济和环境系统特征分析,研究经济新区系统内部诸要素间的相互关系,以明确NEZ系统是个不确定性极强的多目标系统。其次,针对经济新区系统特征,进行水资源综合规划方法研究,将不确定多目标优化方法(Indefinite Multi Objective Programme, IMOP)与系统动力学方法(System Dynamics, SD)有机整合,提出了融模拟技术、数学优化技术为一体的SD-IMOP-SD整合模型方法,用于经济新区水资源系统预测、优化与评价研究。该方法以SD方法为基础,以IMOP方法为取值优化支持系统,避免了人为设计方案工作量大、优化性难于验证的困境,保证了战略方案的优化程度和可行性。同时,本文还根据经济新区水资源综合规划需要,提出了从工程角度和管理角度双管齐下进行节水和水资源优化配置的新思路。在以上研究的基础上,提出了“发展目标确定——常规模式发展结果预测——关键问题与关键因素辨识——水资源优化配置——水工程规划——水管理规划——规划实施结果预评估”的综合规划思想。最后,将以上水资源综合规划理论和规划方法应用于天津空港物流加工区水资源综合规划研究中,实践证明,SD—IMOP—SD整合模型方法用于经济新区水资源综合规划中具有科学性、合理性和可行性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The population growth and economic development have produced unprecedented demands for water supplies. These stresses have made water shortage and water quality degradation more serious in many cities. How to realize water resources sustainable utilization has been one of the most critical concerns for local government with regard to city’existence and sustainable development. Scientific management water resources and optimal utilization are very important for achieving water resources sustainable utilization. There is no doubt that the key is reasonable water resources comprehensive planning which is supported by suitable planning method which is corresponded to target system characters.The dissertation researches the water resources comprehensive planning method of New Economic Zone (NEZ) to provide a comprehensive, scientific and practical planning that is necessary for the regional coordinate development amongst society, economy and environment. The contents of the thesis are organized as follows.First, NEZ Social-Economic- Environmental (SEE) system is oriented as a complexity system which can be characterized by the indefinite and multi-objective system by researching the mutual and complicated functions amongst the internal elements.Secondly, according the indefinite and multi-objective characteristics of NEZ SEE complex system, the technologies of Indefinite Multi Objective Programme (IMOP) and System Dynamics (SD)into SD—IMOP—SD model, which is applied in NEZ water resources system forecasting, optimizing, and evaluating. SD-IMOP-SD model is based on the SD model and combined with the IMOP model as the optimization supported system to get values of SEE, and it can avoid the overtake workload and difficult to validate optimal level scrapes which are caused by man-made designing schemes, thus SD-IMOP-SD model can be regarded as a useful tool in making optimal decision in a planning research for improvement feasibility of the plan as well as guarantee the optimization level of the selected plan. Meanwhile, according the need of NEZ water resources’comprehensive plan, the dissertation puts forward new consider ideas about economizing and optimal allocating water resources from work along both lines view of engineering and management. And based on the above researches, water resources comprehensive planning method of“set purpose——original mode developing result forecasting——key elements analysis——optimal water sources allocation——water engineer plan——water management plan——evolution the plan display result”is proposed.Finally, the technologies and methods mentioned above are applied to the project of“Water resources comprehensive planning in the Kong gang industrial area of Tianjin”. The results are reasonable and further verify that SD—IMOP—SD integrated model and method are effective and valuable for practical optimized planning and optimization in accordance with the comprehensive, coordinate, sustainable development of the economy, resources and society.更多还原