【作者】 冯启高；

【导师】 毛罕平；

【作者基本信息】 江苏大学 ， 农业机械化工程， 2011， 博士

【副题名】以河南省为例

【摘要】 从系统学的观点来看,农业机械化是一个复杂的技术、经济、社会系统。该系统与其外部环境在投入、产出和信息反馈中发生紧密联系,因此,农业机械化的发展必然受到农业生产资源、经济环境、社会环境、农机装备及作业水平等系统内外各种因素的影响和制约。农业机械化发展是一个涉及技术、经济、社会的复杂系统工程。本研究依据系统的观点,运用系统工程的理论和方法,采用定性与定量相结合、理论与实际相结合的研究方法,开展研究工作。综合运用了系统理论、控制论、运筹学、管理科学、信息科学、计算机科学等基本理论和方法,来解决农业机械化发展过程中的系统分析、综合评价和科学决策问题。运用系统分析方法对农业机械化系统基本概念、系统特征,以及农业机械化系统基本结构、系统环境要素、系统目标体系等进行了分析,明晰了农业机械化系统的结构特征、发展环境因素以及功能目标。针对农业机械化系统影响要素多、层次多、结构复杂等特点,采用系统结构模型化技术,建立了农业机械化系统影响诸因素递阶解释结构模型,对农业机械化系统影响诸因素进行结构分析。明晰了农业机械化系统影响诸多要素之间关系的层次化、条理化、系统化以及四个层次的递进关系。通过建立系统动力学模型,对河南省农业机械化系统进行系统动力学分析和系统仿真。模拟了河南省今后农村劳动力转移、土地经营规模、农民人均纯收入以及农业机械总动力等农业机械化发展水平主要相关因素演变态势,仿真了农业资金投入量等政策性参数变化对农业机械化发展水平的影响程度。针对农业机械化发展水平评价中存在的问题,建立了农业机械化发展水平综合评价体系,集成可变模糊理论和方法、主成分分析、发展协调分析、投影寻踪技术、聚类分析等多种评价和分析方法,对河南省农业机械化发展水平进行了综合评价,提高了评价的科学性和系统性,为河南省农业机械化科学决策奠定基础。通过建立农业机械化投入产出模型,分析农业机械化对农业生产的贡献程度,并探讨了农业生产中分式规划模型优化的新算法。运用灰色理论对影响河南省农业机械化发展的主要因素农民人均纯收入、农业劳均产值、劳均产粮、劳均经营规模和农业劳动力所占比重等影响度进行了分析。设计了多智能体开发平台,融合农业机械化系统分析与评价方法,构建了基于多智能体技术和方法的农业机械化决策支持系统,实现了河南省农业机械化系统的分析、评价、模拟和预测,为提高河南省农业机械化信息化管理和科学决策水平奠定基础。在系统分析和综合评价的基础上,提出了今后河南省农业机械化发展的对策和建议。本研究在农业机械化系统动力学分析、综合评价体系建设、以及智能化农业机械化决策支持系统设计开发等方面取得了一定的研究成果。更多还原

【Abstract】 In systematics opinion, agricultural mechanization, which is a complex technical, economic and social system, is an open loop system. The system is connected with its external environment in input, output and information feedback. Therefore, development of agriculture mechanization is influenced and restricted by sorts of factors which includes production resources, economic environment, social environment, agriculture equipment and operational level. Development of agriculture mechanization is a complex project involved technology, economics and society.Based on systematics, the research employed system project theory and method, used qualitatively and quantitatively combined, combining theory with practice. Theory and cybernetics, operations research, management science, information science, computer science and other basic theories were applied in the research.Basic concept, system characteristics of agriculture mechanization, and structure, environment factors, target system of the system were analyzed as application of system analysis. The analysis defined the structure features, development environment factors, and functional goal which are of agricultural mechanization system.As the characters that impact factors of agriculture mechanization system are multiple in levels and complex in structure, hierarchically influence factors model of agricultural mechanization system was established with system structure modeling technology applied. Meanwhile, influence factors of agriculture mechanization system were analyzed based on structure. The relationship between a methodical, systematic and hierarchical structure and the progressive relationship of four levels were defined. Systematic dynamics analysis and system simulation were processed based on the establishment of system dynamics model of agricultural mechanization system in Henan province. rural labor transfer, land business scale, per capita income of farmers in Henan province were simulated, and the simulation of which are changing status of influence factors was processed. Moreover, agricultural funds inputs, which were policy parameters on the influence degree of the agricultural mechanization levels, were simulated.For the problem in evaluation of agriculture mechanization, the agricultural mechanization level evaluation system was established. Meanwhile, many kinds of evaluation method, like integrated variable fuzzy theory, principle component analysis, development chromatography, projection pursuit technology, clustering analysis, were applied in the evaluation of agriculture mechanization development. This improved the rationality of evaluation and supply theoretical basis for policy making. Effects of agricultural mechanization development, which include per capita net income, agricultural labor value, labor production, labor management scale and agriculture labor, were analyzed based on grey theory. Meanwhile, this paper established the input-output model of agriculture mechanization, analyzed the contribution degree of agriculture production and discuss new algorithms of fractional programming.Multi-agent development platform was designed. Agricultural mechanization system analysis and evaluation were fused. Agricultural mechanization decision support system was established based on multi-agent theory. Simulation and prediction of agriculture mechanization in Henan province were implemented. At last, space visual display of agriculture mechanization information was implemented. These improved the informatization management of agriculture mechanization.Based on analysis and evaluation of Henan agriculture mechanization, suggestion of agriculture mechanization development was supplied.In this study, some research results, which include agriculture mechanization system dynamic analysis, construction of comprehensive assessment system, design of agriculture mechanization decision supported system, were achieved.更多还原