【作者】 刘宏；

【导师】 吴春笃；

【作者基本信息】 江苏大学 ， 环境工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 水资源是人类社会可持续发展的限制性因素。水环境安全直接关系到国家的经济安全和社会稳定。随着中国经济社会不断发展,需水量不断增加,而在水资源短缺的同时水污染却在继续加剧。突发性重大水污染事件时有发生,损失巨大,影响长远。江苏省的水资源总量相对较为丰富,但作为经济强省、人口大省,化工产业占相当比重,水环境安全问题依然突出,对于目前仍以化工为主导产业的镇江市尤其如此。因此,研究镇江市水环境安全问题对于保障镇江市经济社会的可持续发展和生态环境的良性循环具有重要意义,对于江苏其他城市同样具有借鉴作用。在深入了解镇江市区域水环境状况的基础上,依据水环境安全的基本理论,以“压力-状态-响应”(PSR,Pressure-state-response)模型为原理,结合相关性分析、层次分析和主成分分析等优化方法,建立了水环境安全评价指标体系,对镇江市水环境安全进行综合评价,并用二次指数平滑模型预测镇江市水环境安全度变化趋势；针对化工园区突出的水环境风险,提出了危险物质固有水环境风险定量评估方法,并以液化烃罐区为例,探讨了其风险管理指标体系以及设备可靠性,以有效控制化工园区的水环境风险。对镇江市的水环境安全综合评价表明,镇江市水环境综合安全度值较低,处于基本安全的状态,水环境安全状况不容乐观。人口密度过大,第三产业比重过低,工业企业数量仍在逐年增加,造成压力层安全度有逐年下降的趋势；状态层中水污染纠纷指数的安全度最低,主要由于化工园区突发性水环境污染事件及水污染信访频次过高所致；响应层中水环境管理指数的安全度严重偏低,表明镇江市在水环境治理方面需进一步加大投入。在纵向评价的基础上,应用二次指数平滑模型预测镇江市水环境安全度变化趋势,结果表明,在未来几年镇江市水环境安全状况有好转趋势,影响水环境安全的因素仍是未来水环境治理和管理的重点。对镇江市与周边三个城市水环境安全横向评价表明,各市水环境综合安全度相差不大,均处于基本安全状态。镇江市水资源条件及水环境质量均不理想,水污染事故时有发生,投诉量居高不下,使得镇江市在状态层方面的安全度最低。各市在水环境安全方面各有长短,镇江市需要借鉴其他城市水环境安全方面的积极因素,扬长抑短,科学谋划,防患于未然。从抑制突发性水环境污染风险的角度,探讨水环境安全保障问题。在全面分析化工园区水环境污染事故原因及水环境风险分布与辨识的基础上,首次提出了危险物质固有水环境风险定量评估方法,该方法从危险物质本身理化特性、数量、环境危害性、环境敏感性以及设备设施及工艺危险性等方面设计了打分规则,并确定了风险等级划分方法。将风险管理理论结合到对水环境安全有重大影响的化工园区的危险源管理活动中,有助于降低和转移风险,从而预防事故、减少损失；依据风险管理的理念对化工企业危险源进行分级,有利于企业提高对危险源的风险管理水平,最大限度地降低水环境风险。液体危险化学品储罐区潜在的水环境风险巨大,运用系统理论结合灰色关联度分析构建了液化烃罐区风险管理指标体系,可为罐区风险管理工作指明重点。将模糊数学与可靠性理论相结合,通过划分相对独立的功能模块评估设备整体可靠性,通过监测重要单体设备状态参数,研究其可靠性趋势,为液化烃罐区设备风险管理提供理论指导。研究结果对控制化工园区的水环境风险具有指导价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water resources is the limiting factor for sustainable development of human society. Water security is directly related to the country’s economic security and social stability. With the continuous development of China’s economy and society, the demand of water is increasing, the water pollution has continued to increase while water shortages. Sudden major water pollution incidents occurred occasionally, caused huge losses and long-term impact. Jiangsu Province is relatively rich in water resources. But as an strong province in economy and populous, chemical industry occupies a significant proportion. Water environment security issues are still outstanding, particularly for Zhenjiang City. Therefore, research water environment security issues of Zhenjiang is very important for the protection of economic and social sustainable development and the virtuous circle of ecological environment. It also has reference for other cities in Jiangsu Province.This paper is based on the depth understanding status of regional water environment of Zhenjiang City. According to the basic theory of water environment security, the "pressure-state-response" (PSR) model combined with correlation analysis, hierarchical analysis and principal component analysis are used to establish evaluation index system. The water environment security of Zhenjiang City is evaluated comprehensively. Double exponential smoothing model is used to predict the trend of the water environment security of Zhenjiang City. For outstanding risks of water environment in Chemical Industry Park, the quantitative evaluation method of inherent water environmental risk about hazardous substances is proposed. In case of liquefied hydrocarbon tank, the safety management index system and equipment reliability are discussed, thus the water environmental risk of Chemical Industry Park is controlled effectively.The comprehensive evaluation of water environment security in Zhenjiang City showed that the safety value is lower and not optimistic. Too large population density, too low proportion of tertiary industry, increasing the number of industrial enterprises year by year, safety degree of the pressure layer declined continuously. Index of water pollution disputes is the lowest in state layer, mainly due to high frequency of sudden water pollution incidents and complaints about Chemical Industry Park. Safety of water environment management index in response layer is grossly, and investment in water environment of Zhenjiang City need to further increase. Based on the longitudinal evaluation, double exponential smoothing model is used to predict the trend of the water environment security in Zhenjiang City. Predicted result shows that the situation of water environment security in Zhenjiang City has improved trend in the next few years.The horizontal evaluation among Zhenjiang City and the surrounding three cities about the water environment security showed, each municipal water environment safety are in the basic safety state. The state layer security of Zhenjiang City is the lowest, because water pollution accidents occurred occasionally and complaints of water pollution is high. Ddifferent cities have their own characteristics in water environment security. Zhenjiang needs to reference positive factors of other cities in water environment security and to improve it constantly.This paper studies protection of water environment security from the inhibition of the risk of sudden water pollution. The cause of the water pollution accident, the distribution and identification of water environmental risk are analyzed comprehensively in Chemical Industry Park. The assessment method about inherent risk of water environment by hazardous substances is proposed. Scoring rules are designed from the physical and chemical properties, quantity, health hazard, environmental sensitivity, the risk of equipment and technology, and the method of risk classification is determined.Risk management theory is integrated into the hazard management activities of industrial zone. It will help to reduce or transfer risk, thus to prevent accidents and reduce losses. Hazards of chemical companies were graded based on the concept of risk management. It will help enterprises to improve the management level of hazards, and to minimize risks of water environment.There are huge potential risks of water environment in liquid chemical storage area. The security management index system of liquefied hydrocarbon tanks is constructed using systems theory with gray correlation analysis. This will point the focus of risk management in tank area. Combined theory of fuzzy mathematics and reliability, the overall reliability of equipment is further studied by dividing of independent modules. The reliability of the trend of single device is studied by monitoring the important status parameters. This will provide theoretical guidance for risk management in liquefied hydrocarbon tanks area. Results of this study have universal guiding value for Chemical Industry Park to control the risk of water environment.更多还原