【作者】 吴强；

【导师】 周曙东；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 在国际贸易领域内,农产品贸易处于一个极其特殊的地位。农业所具有的基础性地位使其关联着粮食安全、环境保护、国内政治等诸多问题,因此在GATT（关贸总协定）时代,尽管贸易自由化的进程不断深入,但农产品的国际贸易却一直游离于国际贸易自由化的体系之外。20世纪80年代中后期,农业贸易保护主义愈演愈烈,主要表现为欧美之间的农产品出口补贴战。直到1986年,在GATT的乌拉圭回合多边贸易谈判中,农产品贸易才被正式纳入到谈判范围。乌拉圭回合《农业协议》的签署标志着农产品贸易自由化谈判取得了突破。自此,农产品贸易不再是贸易自由化的例外领域,各国农产品贸易政策的制定和调整在此后的多边贸易谈判中得到了进一步的关注。2001年12月11日,中国正式成为WTO（世界贸易组织）的成员,必须履行入世时所承诺的对贸易和非贸易壁垒的各项削减义务:诸多农业边境保护措施将被取消,农产品市场准入将逐步扩大。同时,现行的与WTO规则不一致的国内农业支持措施也需做出调整,特别是目前政府对农业支持的最重要手段——价格支持政策的使用将受到严格限制。中国农产品贸易政策在入世后发生了显著的变化,这些变化体现在哪些方面?将会给中国的农业发展带来怎样的影响?对农民的利益影响又是如何?中国当前贸易政策的制定和调整过程中还存在哪些问题?这些都是值得关注的问题。此外,入世后,中国作为正式成员之一,全面参与了WTO新一轮农业谈判,此轮谈判中,谈判集团按照各自利益提出了不同的削减方案,中国应当做出怎样的政策选择值得深入研究。基于对已有文献和相关理论的回顾与分析,本研究运用GTAP模型对提出的问题进行了深入分析。研究采用了最新的GTAP₆数据库,并采用Holt-Winters外推预测方法对GDP、人口等外生宏观变动做出预测,进而采用动态递归的方法来改善一般均衡在比较静态下的局限性。此外,本研究还根据Elbehri和Pearson于2002年提出的方法,对模型的结构和数据进行调整,使其能够更好地模拟关税配额变动产生的影响。入世后,棉花成为贸易逆差最大的农产品之一,国内棉花贸易政策不仅事关棉花产业本身和棉农的切身利益,而且对下游纺织服装业的生产和贸易也会产生重要影响。本研究首先运用改进后的GTAP模型,着重分析了入世后棉花的市场准入制度变化对其产业本身及相关产业带来的影响,同时还进一步研究了该贸易政策变动对棉农收入和就业带来的影响。模拟结果表明,积极按照入世承诺履行削减义务将能够更好地确保各方利益。当前棉花产业以及棉农利益受到冲击在于配额外关税没有按照入世承诺实行高关税,而是采用了与配额内等同的低关税。模拟结果还表明,在未来棉花贸易政策的调整中,只要严格履行配额外的高关税,政府就能够通过关税配额数量的限制有效调控棉花进出口市场。这一结论对中国今后农产品关税配额政策方面的制定和调整具有一定的借鉴意义。其次,本研究还模拟了入世后的“三补两减免”政策给中国粮食生产、贸易以及农民收入和就业带来的影响。研究表明,入世后的“三补两减免”政策促进了中国粮食生产,减少了对进口粮食的依赖程度并保障了粮食安全。同时该政策的实施在促进农民收入及就业方面起到了积极作用。未来加强粮食直接补贴政策的实施力度,能够显著提高农民收入,但对粮食产量以及农民就业的促进作用并不明显。相反,未来加强粮食投入品补贴政策能够显著地促进粮食产量以及农民就业,但对农民收入提高的促进作用很小,这使得政策实行的效果受到影响,因此粮食投入品补贴政策还不能完全代替粮食直接补贴和价格支持政策。最后,本研究对新一轮农业谈判的阶段性成果（包括市场准入、国内支持以及出口补贴方面取得的成果）进行了回顾与总结,并根据谈判所形成的不同力度的削减方案,模拟了多哈回合农业谈判对中国农业生产、贸易、农民收入和就业产生的影响。模拟结果表明:第一,在三种模拟方案下,中国的农产品出口和进口从整体上都得到了提高,且贸易壁垒削减力度越大,出口和进口增长的幅度就越大,但农产品进口的增长幅度要远远低于出口的增长幅度,这表明多哈回合农业谈判的成功将提高中国农产品的国际竞争力。然而由于绝大部分农产品出口贸易的增加幅度以及绝对数量都不明显,因此仅靠其它国家贸易壁垒的削减并不能实现中国农产品贸易水平的全面提升。第二,在三种模拟方案下,农产品的价格普遍下降,但下降幅度不大,给消费者带来的收益有限。同时,农产品产量也会按照比较优势进行相应调整,但所有农产品产量增减的幅度都非常小,因此多哈回合农业谈判不会对中国的农业生产造成过大的影响。第三,在三种模拟方案下,农民收入总量呈上升趋势,但主要集中在粮食、果蔬和肉类产业。同时,农民收入的变动也给农民就业带来了相应变化。可见,多哈回合农业谈判会提高中国农民收入,并促进农民就业。总体看来,更有力度的削减方案将给中国农业发展以及农民带来利益,但是该作用并不十分明显。多哈回合农业谈判成功给中国带来的最积极影响是,比较优势将在农业生产和贸易过程中发挥更大作用,这有利于农业生产结构的调整以及农业资源更为有效的配置。基于上述结论,本研究提出了相应的政策建议,力图为中国未来农产品贸易政策的选择和调整提供一定的参考,以更好地促进农业与农民利益和谐统一的发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the area of international trade, agricultural trade is in a very special status. As agriculture is associated with food security, environmental protection, domestic politics, and many other factors, in the GATT era, the international trade of agricultural products in international trade has been out of the liberalization of the system, although the trade liberalization process continued to deepen. In the late 1980s, growing protectionism in agricultural trade becomes increasingly intense, such as the agricultural export subsidies war between the United States and Europe. Until 1986, during the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations, agricultural trade has finally been formally included in the scope of the negotiations. So, the Uruguay Round "agricultural agreement" marked the breakthrough of agricultural trade liberalization negotiations. Since then, agricultural trade is no longer an exception to the field of trade liberalization, formulation and subsequent adjustments of the national agricultural trade policy has been further attention and development in the multilateral trade negotiations.November 11,2001, China entered the WTO. As a formal member of the WTO, China must fulfill affirmatory obligations of reduction of the trade and non-trade barriers reduction. China’s Agricultural trade policy would be adjusted according to the WTO agreement: a lot of the agricultural border protection measures would be cancelled, and agricultural market access would be gradually expanded. At the same time, the existing domestic agricultural support measures inconsistent with the WTO rules also need to be adjusted. Especially, the most important means of support measures- price support policy will be strictly limited. A series of issues need to be concerned with to achieve the goal above: China’s agricultural trade policy had been made notable changes after entering the WTO. What are these changes? What will happen to China’s agricultural development? What will happen to peasants’ interests? Are there still problems in China’s current trade policy formulation and adjustment process? What are them? After entering the WTO, China fully participated in the new round of WTO negotiations on agriculture. In this round, negotiating parties advanced further liberalization of agricultural trade policies and reduction schemes. What kind of scheme should China choose? This problem should also be concentrated on. After reviewing the related literature and theory, this study used a GTAP model and the latest updated version of GTAP₆ database to analyze the issues above. On this basis, further use of Holt-Winters extrapolation method to forecast GDP, population and other exogenous changes in macroeconomic forecasts. What we do above is to establish a dynamic recurrent method to improve the limitations of general equilibrium under the relatively static. In addition, according to the ways brought forward by Elbehri and Pearson in 2002, this study will adjust the model of the structure and data and enable it to better simulate the impact of the changes caused by tariff quota, thereby to more accurately reflect the impact of changes in trade policy mechanism.The model was firstly used to analyze the impact on cotton market and related industries of the change in cotton market access, and we also analyzed the impact on farmers Income and employment caused by this agricultural trade policy changes. The result showed that positively performance the reduction obligations in accordance with WTO commitments to will be able to better promote the interests of all parties. Negative impact on the cotton industry and cotton growers’ interests lied in that high out-quota tariff was not adopted in accordance with WTO commitment instead of low tariff rate the same as out-quota tariff rate. The results also showed that only strict compliance of the high out-quota tariffs could the government control cotton’s import and export market effectively through quota limitation. Since most of the agricultural sectors shocked are in accordance with the tariff quota management, therefore, the conclusion of the study is worth china learning in the future.Secondly, the study also simulated the impact on food production, trade and fanners produce and employment of domestic foodstuff supporting policy after entering the WTO. The result showed that the implementation of domestic grain supporting policy promoted china’s grain production, reduced China’s dependence on food imports and protected China’s food security. At the same time, the implementation of the policy played a positive role in increasing the income of the farmers and agricultural employment. Strengthening direct subsidies to grain in the future can significantly increase the income of peasants, but the grain output and farmers’ role in promoting employment is not obvious. On the contrary, the future to enhance grain input subsidy policies can significantly promote grain production and farmers’ employment, but fanners’ role in promoting income is not obvious. Thereby, grain input subsidy policies also could not completely replace the price support policy or direct subsidies.Finally, the study made a review and summary for the initial results of the Doha Round negotiations on agriculture （including the results achieved in market access, domestic support and export subsidies）. On this basis, this study simulated impact of the Doha Round of China’s agricultural production, trade, farmers’ income and employment. To do this work, we developed three scenarios to the according to different reduction intensity posed in this new round negotiation （moderate scenario, middle scenario and radical scenario）. The results showed: First, China’s imports and exports of agricultural products have been improved in three scenarios and the growth rate of exports and imports increase more when trade barriers decrease more. However, the growth rate of agricultural imports is far below that of exports, and this shows that the success of the Doha Round negotiations will enhance China’s international competitiveness of agricultural products. As the growth rate and absolute number of most agricultural export is not great, it is impossible to upgrade the level of China’s comprehensive of agricultural products only rely on other countries to reduce trade barriers. Secondly, in the three scenarios, the prices of agricultural products in general have declined, but not as much less, so what consumers gain is finite. At the same time, agricultural output will be adjusted in accordance with the comparative advantages, but agricultural output increase or decease slightly, so the Doha Round negotiations will not influence China’s agricultural production too much. Third, in the three scenarios, the farmers’ total income increases, but mainly concentrated in food, fruits, vegetables and meat industries. At the same time, the farmers’ income changes will bring farmers’ employment in the corresponding changes. So the Doha Round negotiations will promote the income and employment of farmers, but the effect is not clear too. Generally speaking, China’s agricultural development and farmers will benefit more when the trade barriers reduce more, but the most positive influence the Doha Round negotiations on agriculture brings to China is Comparative advantage in agricultural production and trade will play a greater role in the process, and this is conducive to the restructuring of agriculture as well as to configuration agricultural resources c effectively.Based on the conclusions above, this study put forward the corresponding recommendations for the reorientation of China’s future agricultural trade policy so as to better promote the interests of farmers and agricultural development.更多还原