【作者】 白玮；

【导师】 刘仲英；

【作者基本信息】 同济大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 在可持续发展的框架下建立“能源—经济—环境”一体化系统,从能源、经济和环境协调发展的整体角度探讨人类发展过程中面临的难题,是推动社会进步和发展的根本途径。近几年,我国经济建设步伐较快,能源需求潜力巨大,城镇居民生活能耗和建筑能耗的增长很快。据统计,全球能量的50%消耗于建筑的建造与使用过程。因此,我国民用建筑能源需求与我国可持续发发展进程息息相关。本论文在可持续发展理论、公共产品理论、公共经济学理论、目标管理理论的基础上,建立了民用建筑能源需求与环境负荷仿真模型并进行了实证研究,深入探讨了我国建筑节能的可持续发展,建立了建筑节能目标管理体系。本论文首先从理论上证明利用系统动力学研究民用建筑能源需求与环境负荷问题的适用性,其次对影响建筑能源需求的各子系统进行严谨的系统分析与结构分析,以上海地区为实证对象,建立了民用建筑能源需求与环境负荷系统动力学仿真模型。通过模型的计算及校验,结合多情景分析方法,得出了未来水平年上海地区建筑能耗与环境压力的发展情况。通过对结果的分析,指出了未来上海住宅建筑能耗的需求增长趋势以及住宅建筑节能的合理发展方向;根据多情景对比分析,指出经济激励政策中应当既有惩罚措施,又有奖励制度,才能最大程度上刺激用户主动节能的积极性;利用民用建筑能耗的增长速度评价了我国不同阶段建筑节能工作的成效;定义了民用建筑可持续发展的评价指标——建筑的环境消费弹性系数,并借此评价了建筑节能的可持续发展情景模式;提出了上海市民用建筑未来水平年的生态发展模式;本论文总结了发达国家建筑节能政策经验,指出我国建筑节能存在的问题及其根本原因,建立了我国建筑节能目标管理体系模型,提出了完善该体系的各项措施,包括完善行政监管机制的管理手段、可实施的建筑节能经济激励政策、建筑节能服务体系中存在的障碍、相关解决措施以及急需的建筑节能技术与标准体系。更多还原

【Abstract】 In sustainable development field, difficulties in human’s development should be discussed and studied from the viewpoint of "Energy-economic-environment" system. Both economic and energy demand have been growing fast for these years in China, and at the same time, living energy consumption and building energy consumption both rise up. Thus energy demand and environment load of civil buildings is relative closely to the sustainable development in China.On the basis of sustainable development theory, public good theory, public economics theory, and object management theory, this paper builds the simulation model on energy demand and environment load of Chinese civil buildings, thoroughly studies the sustainable development mode of building energy saving of China, and establishes an energy saving object management system.This paper firstly proves the applicability of system dynamics of research on civil buildings energy demand and environment load, and then take critical structure analysis of the sub-systems, establishes the prediction simulation model on civil buildings energy demand and environment load and takes the positive analysis finally. Based on the model calibration and calculation, combined with several scenarios analysis, the future building energy consumption and environment load in Shanghai are concluded.Based on the analysis of calculation results, this paper points out the growth trend of energy consumption and rational development of energy saving of Shanghai residential buildings; with the comparative analysis under various scenarios, it draws a conclusion that both punitive and incentive measures should be included in economic policies to stimulate users’ initiative. And this paper evaluates the effect of China’s energy saving policies in the different stages by the growth rate of civil buildings energy consumption, defines elastic factor of building environment consumption, named as evaluation indicator of civil building sustainable development, to evaluate the sustainable development state of energy saving under the different scenarios, analyzes the ecological development mode of Shanghai civil buildings in the future.This paper summarizes energy saving experiences of the developed countries. points out the existing problems and reasons of China, establishes the energy saving object management system model for China, and proposes many refinement measures of the system, including management tools of administration regulation mechanism, implementation of economic incentive policies for energy saving, obstacles in energy efficiency service system, and necessary energy efficiency technologies and standards.更多还原