中国最优储蓄率的决定及宏观经济效应

【作者】 郑纯雄；

【导师】 杨秋宝；

【作者基本信息】 中共中央党校 ， 政治经济学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 近年来,随着中国经济的飞速发展,一直保持在高水平上的中国储蓄率受到了越来越多国内外经济学家的关注。高储蓄率给我国经济发展带来充裕资金来源,是支持经济快速增长的重要因素。更为重要的是,源源不断的资金流保证了金融机构的流动性,增强了银行的稳定性。与此同时,也给我国经济发展带来前所未有的挑战。因此,我们必须未雨绸缪,化弊为利,使之为我国经济健康发展服务。论文运用现代经济分析工具,尝试通过建立一个新的最优储蓄率分析框架来解释其决定机理,然后,从数量上深入考察最优储蓄率的决定机制,构建最优储蓄率模型,并进行实证分析,求得我国最优储蓄率,进而从储蓄主体这一新的视角考察其对消费、投资及金融等宏观经济效应,最后,提出了一个系统的化解机制,抑制经济风险与危机的发生。在导论部分,论文首先对国内外最优储蓄率研究的文献作了一个系统的梳理,评析了以往理论的贡献与不足,针对中国储蓄率新的实践,迫切需要作出理论解释以指导实践,但已有理论不能满足迫切的理论需求。论文的第一章,尝试利用一个新的框架来解释最优储蓄率的决定机制。首先对最优储蓄率的概念进行界定,然后通过对储蓄模型演变的描述,引入其经济性影响因素,接着分析了最优储蓄率决定的制度性因素,最后,通过在考察按储蓄率高低分类的世界三类典型国家储蓄率的决定因素的基础上,比较研究其决定因素。在论文第二章,进一步从量的角度,考察了最优储蓄率的决定机制。在对前人的研究成果进行梳理,分别基于索罗模型、拉姆齐模型、叠代模型及凸性经济增长模型基础上,构建最优储蓄率的量化决定模型,并从三个不同角度进行实证分析,得出了最优储蓄率,发现我国当前储蓄率,有偏离最优储蓄率的趋势。论文的第三、四、五章,从投资、消费和金融三个层面考察最优储蓄率的宏观经济效应。第三章和第四章,首先分别考察了储蓄与投资、消费的关系,着重从储蓄内部居民、企业和政府三主体这一新的视角深入分析。然后,从静态和动态两个层面分析其对投资和消费的经济效应,接着结合我国高储蓄率,高投资率及低消费率现象进一步分析其经济效应。最后,进行国际视角的比较分析。论文的第五章,重点审视了其对金融的经济效应:主要从金融体系和资本市场两方面考察,提出了一个新的分析角度,即从储蓄内部各主体角度来看待中国的储蓄率,发现储蓄率高的影响有利有弊,我们要早作准备,密切关注其对我国银行体系和资本市场造成的风险。论文的第六章,通过对储蓄内部居民、企业和政府三个主体的决定因素的未来演变趋势的考察,对我国最优储蓄率的发展趋势进行了预测。论文第七章,在前面六章分析基础上,为促进中国储蓄率收敛于最优储蓄率。提出构建了一个分“三步走”的收敛控制系统设想,以使储蓄率尽快回复到最优储蓄率的政策建议。第一步是健全收敛的支撑体系,接下来第二步是完善收敛的平台,最后第三步是改善收敛的调节机制。本文中,作者主要进行了如下理论思考:1.构造了一个新模型,即中国最优储蓄率模型。2.进行了一次新实证分析,即搜集最新数据,运用基于拉姆齐-卡斯库普曼斯、索罗-斯旺及哈罗德-多马模型的三种最优储蓄率决定方法进行中国最优储蓄率的实证研究。3.提出了一个新思路,即促进储蓄率收敛于最优储蓄率的“三步走”收收敛控制系统。4.提出了一个新视角,即从储蓄主体结构角度来看待中国的最优储蓄率,从而完成对消费、投资和金融等宏观经济效应分析。5.提出了两个新观点:(1)启动内需,扩大消费可考虑从降低储蓄着手。(2)保持最优储蓄率对当前金融健康稳定运行特别重要。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, with the rapid development of China’s economy, the Chinese savings rate that has remained at a high level has been more and more the concern of economists at home and abroad. China’s high savings rate has afforded to the economic development of adequate sources of financing, supports rapid economic growth and is an important factor. More importantly, an endless flow of funds guarantee the liquidity of financial institutions and enhanced the bank’s stability. At the same time, but also to China’s economic development unprecedented challenges has been brought. Therefore, we must prepare in advance and tackle successfully the disadvantages, so as to serve the healthy development of China’s economic.Papers use modern tools of economic analysis to try to establish a new framework for analysis of the optimal savings rate to explain its decision mechanism. And then, in order to research the optimum savings rate decision mechanism in the quantity deeply, we build an optimal savings rate model and make an empirical Analysis to obtain optimal savings rate in China. Further, from this new perspective of the main savings on the inspection of its consumption, investment and financial effects and other macroeconomic effects, finally, proposed a system of resolving mechanism, inhibit economic risks and crises.In its introduction, the part of the papers firstly analyzed systematically on documentations of the optimal savings rate at home and abroad and find the previous assessment of the contribution and inadequate. For the Chinese new practice of savings rate, there is an urgent need to make theory to guide practice because theories have been unable to meet the urgent needs of the theory.Among the first chapter, tried to use a new framework to explain the decision mechanism of optimal savings rate. First, define the concept of the optimal savings rate, and then through describing the evolution of the savings model, introducce its economic impact factors. Then analyze the institutional factors of the optimal savings rate decisions. Finally, through the reserchment on Typical of the world’s three national savings rate by high or low savings rate classification, we study comparativally the determining factor on the basis of analyzing their deciding factor.In Chapter II, from the point of quantity, papers furtherly inspected the optimal savings rate decision mechanism. After sorting out the previous research results, respectively construct the optimal decision model to quantify the savings rate on base of the Solow model, Ramsey model, iterative model and convexity of economic growth model. We make Empirical analysis from three different angles to obtain the optimal savings rate and find that China’s current savings rate has a deviation from the optimal savings rate trend.Among the third, fourth, five chapters, we inspected optimal savings rate macroeconomic effects from the investment, consumption and finance three levels. Chapters III and IV, respectively, first inspected the savings and investment, consumption, savings from internal focus on residents, businesses and the Government of this new perspective the main in-depth analysis. Then, from the static and dynamic respect ,we analyzed economic effects of investment and consumption, and then furtherly analyzed of its economic effects with China’s high savings rate, high investment rate and low consumption rate. Finally, made the international perspective of comparative analysis. Papers in Chapter 5, the focus of its review is the financial economic effect: mainly from the financial system and capital markets both inspection, proposed a new analysis point of view from internal savings to the main point of view of China’s savings rate, and found the impact of a high savings rate is pros and cons, we have to make early preparations, its close attention to China’s banking system and capital market risks.In Chapter 6, through internal savings to residents, businesses and government three main factors determining the future evolution of the trend study, papers forecast the optimal savings rate in China’s development trends.Chapter VII of papers, on the basis of previous six chapters analysis, proposed "three-step" convergence control system to promote China’s savings rate convergence in the optimal savings rate, as soon as possible make the savings rate back to the optimum savings rate. The first step is to improve the convergence of the support system, the next step is to improve the convergence of platforms, the final third step is to improve the convergence of the adjustment mechanism.In this paper, the author has made main theoretical consideration as follows:1. Construct a new model, namely China optimum savings rate model.2. Carried out a new empirical analysis that the latest data collected, use the three methods of decision of optimal savings rate on base of Ramsey–Cass-Koopmans, Solow-Swann and Harold-Domar model to make the empirical research of China’s savings rate.3. Propose a new idea, that is the convergence control system of "three-step" of promoting savings rate converging optimal savings rate.4. Put forward a new perspective, that is view of China’s best savings rate from the main structure of savings, thereby completing macroeconomic analysis of the consumption, investment and financial effects.5. Proposed two new ideas:(1) starting domestic demand and expanding consumption can consider starting from reducing savings.(2) maintain optimal savings rate particularly important to the current financial health and stable operation.更多还原