开放条件下中国经济增长的实证研究

【作者】 杜修立；

【导师】 王维国；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 数量经济学， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 本文运用实证分析的方法，试图从不同的侧面研究改革开放以来，中国长期经济增长的若干重要问题。改革开放以来，中国经济经历了高速增长，新的经济现象和经济关系不断转换。实证分析是对经济现象和经济关系的一种确认，可以使得繁杂的经济现象呈现出真实面貌。与中国经济的高速增长相伴随的是，中国经济的转轨过程和逐步扩大的对外开放，所以，中国经济的高速增长和经济结构的变迁都表现出不同于发达国家和其他发展中国家的特征。中国空前的经济改革，需要理论的指导。我们知道，任何科学理论的性质都是一种假说，可证伪性是其科学性的体现，也是理论得以发展的前提。如果一种理论不能被事实证伪，或者获得了事实的支持，理论对实践的指导意义就得到了加强，否则，需要发展新的理论。所以，发源于西方发达国家的经济理论以及其他国家的发展经验，是否适应于中国迅猛发展的经济实践，需要一个认真的实证检验过程。所以，实证分析可以使我们正确认识中国经济增长的特征事实及其各种关系，对于中国进一步深化改革，保持经济长期增长无疑具有重要意义。由于更加清晰地观察到经济现象的本质，实证分析还可以促进对现象提出理论解释，所以是构建能够直接指导中国经济实践的经济理论的起点。所有的这些实证分析，实际上是借助基本经济学原理，对中国经济增长问题的再分析。在运用已有的原理或方法，对不同的对象进行分析的过程中，必然会对已有的理论方法加以改进，或发展出新的理论方法，所以分析本身也是一个理论创新的过程。由于经济现象的复杂性，人类行为的互动性(包括不同个体之间，个体与组织之间，以及个体在现实与预期之间的互动)，以及经济的不可试验性，实证分析实际上是一项颇具挑战性的工作。不同于经济理论研究重在提出理论解释，实证分析，特别是“经验验证”，则重在“证到实处”。虽然经济学家已经拥有了各种统计手段和复杂的经济计量工具，但要把问题证到实处，仍然是一个理论联系实际的典型的研究过程，从而是经济研究中富有魅力的一部分。概括地，本文的研究是在经济学的基本框架下，从中国长期经济增长中的基本现象出发，对中国经济增长有关问题进行实证分析。本文先从国内省际经济增长的分析开始：其次，分析中国经济的外部联系，包括外贸和外资方面；第三，分析中国经济的技术进步和结构变迁：最后，是政府在经济中作用的经验分析。各章主要内容及贡献如下：第1章导论，是对选题等相关内容的说明。第2章是现代经济增长理论及实证研究简单综述，以作为后续研究的基本理论准备。第3章是国内省际经济增长的收敛性分析。利用改革开放以来各省经济增长的数据，在内生增长理论的框架下，实证分析了中国省际经济增长收敛性，指出中国省际平衡增长路径的发散是中国地区经济发展不平衡的主要原因。第4章和第5章是中国经济增长的外部联系方面。第4章是对外贸易规模的经验分析。将外贸依存度与经济发展阶段联系起来，指出随着经济发展阶段转换，对外贸易依存度呈倒U型曲线，进而得出中国的外贸依存度并不高的结论。第5章是中国FDI流入的决定因素及因果分析。该章结合经济计量模型与Granger因果关系检验，分析指出我国的外商直接投资流入的原因、特点及存在的问题。第6章分析了中国出口贸易的技术进步及结构变迁。该章在已有文献的基础上，改进了基于出口部门的技术进步的测度方法，并设计了测度技术结构分布的一系列指标。本章还将这些指标应用于中国出口贸易部门，通过国际比较，得出结论：改革开放以来，中国出口贸易的整体水平仅表现出微弱地向世界水平收敛的趋势；中国出口贸易的技术结构分布发生了与众不同的重大变化：如果把整个出口贸易分为高技术部门和低技术部门，则高技术部门的技术结构逐渐降低，低技术部门的技术结构逐渐升高。该章测度方法依据的基本假设是，高收入国家出口高技术含量的产品，低收入国家出口低技术含量的产品。所以，这种测度一定程度上摆脱了新古典均衡分析框架下技术进步测度的困难。该测度方法仅仅依赖于世界各国的出口数据和各国收入水平，具有完全的可操作性。这是本文的主要贡献之一。第7章是对中国经济的技术结构过高还是过低的判断分析。该章将经济增长的适宜技术理论应用到经济的技术结构分析，提出了经济的技术结构适宜性的二个测度指数，即技术结构适宜指数和偏离指数。本章应用这二个指数分析了中国经济的技术结构过高还是过低的问题，得出初步结论为：中国经济的技术结构大约在1996年发生了意义深刻的转折——在1996年以前，中国经济的技术结构高于适宜结合结构，而在1996年之后，已经低于适宜技术结构。该章提出的技术结构适宜性测度方法，为技术结构分析提供了全新的视角，同时，为测度政府对市场干预强度以及相关研究做了准备，是本文的主要贡献之二。第8章对政府在经济发展中的作用进行经验分析。该章利用技术结构适宜指数和技术赶超指数，以东亚成功经济体(HPAEs)为样本，实证分析政府对市场干预的整体经济效果，检验结果支持了政府干预促进经济增长的观点。政府干预对经济增长整体绩效的影响，一直是广受争议的话题。以往研究由于缺乏对政府干预强度的合适测度指标，倾向于认为政府干预失败。本章的研究为相反的观点提供了支持，有助于促进该话题的深入研究，是本文的主要贡献之三。更多还原

【Abstract】 The thesis focuses on empirics of economic growth in China during reform era. Since the reform and opening up, China has been keeping high growth rate, meanwhile some new economy phenomena appear and economy structure change continuously and dramatically. Empirical analysis, which can make the complexity of the economy phenomena simpler, is a sort of confirmation about the economy facts.Accompanied with the high rate of economic growth, china is experiencing her transition process and deepening her level of opening up gradually. Thus there must be lots of different characteristics of economic growth in China from the developed countries and the other developing countries. Theory is necessary for china’s reform. The nature of any scientific theory is a hypothesis, and the falsiflablity of a theory is the symbol of scientific basis and the precondition of theoretical development. Once a theory can not be certified or be supported by facts, the theory will obtain more value to direct the corresponding practice; otherwise an alternative theory should be developed. Thus, whether the theories originated from western developed countries and experiences of the other developing countries can be suitable for the analyses on the economy practices of China indeed depends on some related empirical studies . Therefore, empirical analysis on economy growth in China plays a key role in deepening the reform and keeping China’s sustainable growth.In addition, due to clarifying the nature of complicated economy phenomena, empirical analysis is helpful to develop alternative theory, which means arguable empirical analysis is one of starting points to construct economic theory that can guide directly economy practice in China. All of these kinds of empirical analyses are a sort of re-analysis on economy phenomena on the basis of principles of economics. When different phenomena are studied with some old principles or methods, the old principles or methods will be modified unconsciously or consciously, so the analysis is also a process of innovation itself.Due to the complexity of economy phenomena, the interaction of human behaviors, and the un-experimental nature of economy, the process of empirical analysis is full of challenges. Unlike the theoretical study of economics which focuses on the development of new theories, empirical analyses focus on testing the fact. Although there are various methods of statistics and econometrics that can be selected by an economist, the empirical analysis is still a typical interesting study program which is characterized by the combination of theory and facts.To sum up, with the basic framework of economics, the paper makes studies of the key phenomena of economy growth in China, and focuses on the empirical analyses in related fields. The paper firstly starts the analysis with the convergence across the growth of provinces in China. Secondly, the relationships with foreign economy are studied, which include foreign trade and foreign direct investment. Thirdly, the focuses are on the technology progress and technology structure of China economy. Finally, the role of government in the economy development is examined empirically with a sample from High Performance Asian Economies except Japan (HPAEs). The main content and the contributions of each chapter are in the following:Chapter 2 is a survey of economic growth theory and empirics, which is a preparation for the following studies in this paper. Chapter 3 is an empirical analysis of convergence of economy growth across provinces in China. With the economy growth data sampled from provinces of China during the reform era, the convergence of economy growth is analyzed empirically, from which a conclusion is drawn: the divergence of economy growth across provinces of China mainly results from the divergence of the steady paths of economy growth.The chapter 4 and 5 are about the foreign relation of Chinese economy growth. Chapter 4 is the analysis on the volume of foreign trade of China in term of trade dependence. The trade dependence is related with the stages of economy development in this chapter, and the rule of thumb is drawn from the experiences of most countries, that the trade dependence will show an inverse U shape with the change of stages of development. Based on the rule, we can conclude that the trade dependence of China is not too high now.Chapter 5 is an Empirical analysis on the determinants and mechanism of foreign direct investment in China. Based on some researches home and abroad, taking China as a whole and distinguishing FDI’s home countries, the paper makes an empirical analysis on the effects of several determinants on Foreign Direct Investment and its mechanism in China by Panel Data model and Granger causality test.Chapter 6 focuses on the technology progress and technology structure of Chinese economy. Based on some literatures, a measure index is improved significantly, which can be used to measure the technology progress happened in trade sector. In addition, a series of methods are designed to measure the distribution of technology.The methods are also applied practically to trade sectors of China, and from the view of international comparison, the chapter also gets some conclusions: during the reform era, the technology level of China’s exports has been obviously increased, but it has not converged to the level of world; China’s level of technology structure wasn’t improved significantly, but had different performances during different periods; the changing of technology structure of China’s exports has unique characteristics.The fundamental hypothesis of the measurement in this paper is just that the countries of high income level would export products of high technology level and the countries of low income level would export products of low technology level. Thus this measurement to some degree is free of the difficulty of measure technology progress under new classical equilibrium framework. Meanwhile, the calculation of the measure index is just based on the data set of export and income per capita of countries in the world, which endow them with perfect operation. This measurement is a first of important contributions of this paper.Chapter 7 devotes to identifying whether the technology structure of China’s economy is too high or too low. The idea of appropriate technology in growth theory is applied to analyze the level of technology structure, and two indexes are developed to measure the appropriateness of technology structure, which are named as appropriateness index and biasness index of technology structure respectively. By applying the two indexes to an analysis of China’s economy, some important conclusions are drawn: the technology structure of China’s economy changed dramatically in 1996 or so, and before 1996, the technology structure was higher than the appropriate level, but was lower than the appropriate level after 1996.With the two indexes, the analysis on technology structure can be done by a totally different view, and get more valuable conclusions. In addition, the two indexes can also be used to measure the intensity of government’s intervention in economy, which is a necessary preparation for related studies. The two indexes are a second of important contributions in this paper.In Chapter 8 the role of government in the development is analyzed empirically with the samples of HPAEs. By the empirical analysis, the point that the intervention of government has a positive effect on economy growth performance is supported.The total effect of government on economy growth has always been a controversial topic. Due to lack of measure index of government intervention, most of literatures trend to protest the failure of government intervention. The study in this chapter finds out the evidence for the opposite points, which will inspire advanced studies in this field. This is a third of important contributions in this paper.更多还原