东北区域金融阶段性发展战略问题研究

【作者】 李洪慈；

【导师】 夏德仁；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 金融学， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 区域金融是现代市场经济条件下大国金融发展的一种客观现象，是一个国家抽象金融制度的现实存在。它是将金融运行和发展置于一定的时空范畴加以考察，研究一国或一个地区金融结构与运行在空间上分布的状态和特点，从而探讨金融发展空间结构的变动规律和作用机制。由于中国各地区存在着区域经济发展的非均衡特征，越来越多的学者在研究中国区域经济的非均衡性时，关注到了各地区金融发展的差异。但是，就目前区域金融理论研究本身而言，国内外已有的研究成果主要集中在宏观金融发展理论和微观金融发展理论方面。尽管国外学者在研究宏观货币经济学理论时对区域金融问题有所涉及，而且国内也有部分学者开始尝试对区域金融问题进行系统的研究，但目前区域金融理论研究整体尚处于起步阶段。无论从理论的核心概念、研究体系，还是研究方法上都与成熟的金融发展理论有着相当的差距。在国家提出振兴东北的战略背景下，本文试图借鉴已有的理论和实证研究成果，构建区域金融某一方面的理论内核或者研究方法，用以分析和指导东北地区的金融发展。基于上述基本情况，本文对于区域金融发展问题的研究将具有一定的理论创新意义和现实指导意义。由于区域金融问题研究尚未形成一个完整的理论框架，本文认为，对区域金融理论的分析必须建立在区域经济理论和金融发展理论的基础上。这一方面是因为区域金融本身就是一种重要的区域经济现象，另一方面区域金融理论从根本上是说仍然属于金融发展理论的范畴。因此，本文首先在分析有代表性的区域经济理论、金融发展理论，并借鉴已有区域金融研究成果的基础上，对区域金融进行了一般性理论分析，界定了区域金融的概念和基本属性，并对区域金融作用于区域经济的内在机制进行了探讨。本文发现，区域金融发展与经济增长的关系更多地表现为一种动态均衡关系，远比已有研究证明的线性关系复杂。为了进一步研究两者之间的动态均衡特征，本文结合区域金融发展呈现出金融压抑、金融适度发展和金融过度发展三种阶段性特征，以及区域金融自身所具有的规模经济性特征，提出了区域金融发展与经济增长存在着“低均衡”和“高均衡”两种状态的“两重均衡”理论模型，指出欠发达地区要实现由“低均衡”状态向“高均衡”状态的转化，必须在外生力量的作用下，使区域金融体系规模尽快突破临界点。而组建金融机构高成本的“门槛效应”和欠发达地区现实存在的“区域金融浅化”现象，则成为“两重均衡”规模临界点难以突破的主要障碍。为了验证“两重均衡”理论模型的可靠性，本文以同样处于经济过渡时期、转轨国家的中国和俄罗斯作为正反两个方面的例证，通过实证地直观描述和建立多元模型相结合，检验了中国自建国以来尤其是改革开放20多年来经济增长和金融发展的“两重均衡”特征，以及俄罗斯始终处于“低均衡”状态的现象及原因。按照发展经济学的现实价值取向和便于研究中国区域金融问题的需要，本文重新界定了区域金融发展的概念，即包括量性增长和质性发展双重内涵，具体表现为区域金融规模扩张和区域金融效率提高两个方面。而实现区域金融由量性增长向质性发展转化的转折点就是“两重均衡”理论模型中提到的规模“临界点”。按照这一新概念，本文从金融总量规模和金融效率两个方面，对东北地区金融的现实状况进行了实证分析和检验，得出其金融发展与经济增长始终处于“低均衡”状态，即金融发展规模始终没有突破“临界点”且金融效率低下，金融发展对经济增长的作用极其微弱的结论。为了实现东北地区金融发展与经济增长由“低均衡”状态向“高均衡”状态转变，本文认为其金融深化的逻辑步骤应当注意次序安排，是一个动态的“两阶段”规划问题：第一阶段的主要任务是在外生力量的作用下，迅速做大金融体系规模，实现区域金融体系的规模经济，促使金融体系规模突破“两重均衡”临界点的限制；第二阶段的主要任务是在区域金融体系规模突破临界点后，着力提高东北地区金融的市场化水平、鼓励和促进区域金融创新，目的在于提高区域金融效率，实现区域金融发展与经济增长更高层次的良性互动，即逐渐达到“高均衡”的稳定状态。根据上述“两阶段”战略安排，本文认为，东北地区金融发展应该按照金融体系规模扩张和金融效率提高两个方面先后展开。因此，论文先分别从金融资产规模的扩张、金融机构体系的多元化，以及将大连建设为东北区域金融中心三个方面，提出了快速实现东北地区金融规模量性扩张的对策。在此基础上，当东北地区金融体系规模突破临界点走出“低均衡”状态之后，其主要任务应该是提高区域金融效率，以最终达到“高均衡”的相对稳定发展状态。因此，论文提出，应该通过健全金融市场体系、鼓励金融创新等措施来加大直接融资比重，引导企业和个人减少对传统融资机制的依赖，增强市场融资意向和自主融资行为，以提高东北地区的金融效率，更好地发挥金融对区域经济增长的促进作用。但从现实看，中国金融体制的总体发展具有明显的政府推动特征。国际经验同样表明，越是后进的国家，在金融发展过程中政府部门的作用就越显著。尤其是针对金融发展与经济增长一直处于“低均衡”状态的东北地区，更需要政府的外生介入，这包括中央政府和地方政府在各自领域内的双重努力。因此，本文从中央政府区域化金融政策方面的倾斜，地方政府在区域金融发展规划的制定、良好金融发展环境的营造、区域金融安全区的构建等方面提出了具体对策。针对东北地区存在的商业性金融不足的事实，本文最后从理论和国外实践的角度分析了政策性金融的必要性后，提出了进一步构建支持东北地区发展的政策性金融体系的具体设想。更多还原

【Abstract】 Regional finance is a phenomenon of a country’s finance development under the condition of modern market economy, and a realism of a county’s abstract financial institution as well. By considering the financial implement and development in a certain space-time domain, it investigates the state and characteristics of the spatial distribution of a country or a region’s financial structure and implement, and further analyzes the evolutional principle and function mechanism of the spatial structure of the financial development. Because of the un-equilibrium characteristics of different regions’ financial development in China, many researchers pay much more attention to the diversity of different regions’ financial development when they simultaneity studies the un-equilibrium phenomenon of China’s regional economy. In the theoretic domain of regional finance, extant studies focus primarily on both the macro-level financial development theories and the micro-level ones. Though oversea researchers sometimes refer to regional finance when they explore macro monetary economy, and other native peers attempt to study the regional finance issue as well, they seldom scan systematically regional finance, which makes the regional finance theory to be in a low development state. Compared with the mature financial development theory, the regional finance theory has a long trudge in theoretical core concepts, research framework, and research methods. Base on the context of the strategy of China’s developing northeast economy, this thesis refers to extant theoretic and empirical studies and aims to perfect the theoretic analysis or research method of the regional finance theory to a certain extent in order to investigate and direct the financial development of China’ Northeast Region. It would provide theoretic and practical implications for the regional finance issue.Because there has not been a rounded theoretic framework for the regional finance theory, the theoretic analysis based both on the regional economy theory and on the finance development theory is necessary. There are two reasons for it. On one hand, regional finance itself is an important phenomenon of regional economy. On the other hand, the regional finance theory essentially is embedded into the domain of the finance development theory. Consequently, both representative theories consisting of the regional economy theory and the finance development theory are first analyzed, and then regional finance has been investigated theoretically based on extant studies on the regional finance issue. Specifically, the concept and basic attributes of regional finance are defined, and the internal mechanism is discussed on the effect of regional finance on regional economy.A dynamic equilibrium relationship between regional financial development and economic growth, which is more complex than the linear relationship proven in extant studies, is proposed in this thesis. In order to demonstrate the dynamic equilibrium characteristics of this relationship, regional finance development is characterized as a three-phase one involving financial inhibition phase, financial moderate development, and financial overage development, and the scale economy characteristics of regional finance is also examined. After that, a two-equilibrium theoretic model consisting of both the low-equilibrium phase and the high-equilibrium one is put forward to character the dynamic relationship between regional financial development and economic growth. Further, it is pointed out that, if developing regional economy expects to evolve from the low-equilibrium state to the high-equilibrium one, its regional financial scale, driven by the exogenous force, must exceed a critical value as soon as possible. Whereas, the ’threshold-effect’ that there is high cost in constructing financial organizations as well as the ’shallow regional finance’ of developing economy in practice maybe the most important obstacles to exceed such critical value. The reliability of the two-equilibrium theoretic model is validated empirically based on the case of two transition economies, i.e., Russia and China. By collaborating directing empirical description with multi-variation model demonstration, the two-equilibrium characteristics of the relationship between the regional financial development and economic growth in China since 1949 (especially since China opens its door to the outer world) are analyzed. At the meanwhile, the relationship in Russia is found to be in the low equilibrium. Related causes linked to the practical phenomenon are discussed deeply.According to the practical value orientation of the development economy theory and to study conveniently the regional finance issue in China, the concept of the regional finance are redefined in this thesis. It includes two-side meanings: quantitative growth and qualitative development, which are described respectively as the growth of regional finance scale and the improvement of regional finance efficiency. Further, the milestone from quantitative growth to qualitative development is the so-called critical value of regional financial scale in the two-equilibrium model. Along this logic, the situation of China’s Northeast Region’s finance is analyzed theoretically and tested empirically from both financial total scale and financial efficiency. The result is that the present relationship between regional finance and economic growth in China’s Northeast Region still lies in a low equilibrium state. In other worlds, the financial scale in this region has not exceed the critical value, and the financial efficiency is very low, both of which means that the effect of financial development on economic growth in China Northeast Region is very feeble.To make China Northeast Region’s finance evolve from the low equilibrium state to the high equilibrium one, a logic sequence arrangement, which is also explained as a dynamic two-phase strategy, is advanced to deepen the regional finance in this region. At the first phase, the regional financial scale should be strengthened by the external force to achieve the scale economy of regional finance and further to lead regional finance to exceed the so-called critical value in the two-equilibrium model. At the second phase, the market level of China Northeast Region’s finance need to be enhanced and regional financial innovation should be encouraged, with the aim to achieve stable high equilibrium state through improving regional financial efficiency and realizing the mutual facilitation of regional financial development and economic growth in higher-level.According to the two-phase strategy, the financial development in China’ Northeast Region is suggested to be implemented through scale expansion of financial system and the improvement of financial efficiency. Specifically, related suggestions on the quantitative expansion of financial scale in this region are maintained in this thesis, which include the expansion of financial assets, the construction of different financial organizations, developing Dalian City as the regional finance center in China’s Northeast Region. After that, when the regional financial scale of China’ Northeast Region exceeds the so-called critical value, another important task need to be fulfilled through elevating regional finance efficiency in order to take the relationship between regional financial development and economic growth into relative stable high equilibrium state. It is maintained that, in order to improve financial efficiency and advance the effect of regional finance on economic growth, the ratio of direct financing should be increased through such steps as perfecting financial market system and encouraging financial innovation, the dependence of the firms and the individuals on traditional financing mechanism should be decreased, and the market financing and freedom financing should be strengthened.In practice, the development of China’s financial system is driven by China’ government as a whole. International experience declare that, the lower economic development level a country or a region is on, the more important the role of its government in its financial development. Specifically, China’s Northeast Region characterized with the low equilibrium state needs more governmental exogenous interventions, which include the integrated intervention of central government and that of state government respectively. As a result, some suggestions are proposed in this thesis, which includes the regional financial policy incline from central government, the implement of regional financial development strategy of state government, the construction of preferable financial development environment, and the foundation of regional finance safe area. To solute the problem of the deficiency of commerce finance in China’s Northeast Region, the necessary condition of policy finance is tracked from theoretic perspective and oversea practical experience. And then the detail suggestions on the construction of policy finance system in China’s Northeast Region are brought forward.更多还原