【作者】 张新；

【导师】 赖明勇；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 全球经济发展史上的三次重大技术革命深刻表明了技术进步与研发创新在决定长期经济增长中的关键作用,因而探讨技术进步的源泉、比较各国研发投入与创新产出的差异根源就成为了以Romer、Lucas等人为代表的新增长理论的主要研究问题。类似地,尽管改革开放以来中国经济持续、稳定的快速增长已经引起了世界瞩目,然而伴随着经济高速增长同时还存在着系列潜在问题,其中经济增长方式的转变成为其中至关重要的话题。因此,本博士论文试图将技术进步、研发创新与人力资本这些新增长因素结合起来,从理论分析与实证研究两个层面来共同探讨长期经济增长的推动源泉,尤其是在传统分析框架下引入对外贸易与吸引外资等因素,试图来构建一个分析经济开放情形下的内生增长模式。本文首先对经济增长理论的发展线索进行文献回顾,尤其是现代经济增长的文献综述。对已有增长文献的疏理主要强调基于技术进步与基于人力资本的内生增长理论的发展脉络,对这两条研究线索的内在机理、模型构建与研究结论进行了较为全面的文献回顾。理论研究方面首先讨论了在研发投入与人力资本积累驱动下的内生增长模型中,政府如何运用最优财政政策对经济增长进行协调。基于产品种类扩张型的内生增长模型,本部分探讨了如何通过政府政策来消除私人研发活动中由于垄断定价、外部效应以及垄断权削弱导致的效率损失问题。论文证明了通过执行税收一一补贴政策,政府可以引导市场均衡条件下的稳态增长率达到社会最优水平。进一步考察了一个同时内生化人力资本积累和技术进步的创新经济,模型采用Romer对于生产部门的划分,并通过利用Lucas(1988)对于人力资本内生化的方法,以及Jones(1995)对Romer(1990)内生化R&D生产函数的改进,克服了Romer(1990)等内生增长模型的缺陷,使得经济增长完全内生化:分解了人力资本积累、技术创新以及人口增长对经济增长的贡献,同时消除了规模效应对长期经济增长率的影响。第五章在上述研究基础上,进一步考察了经济开放与长期经济增长的理论关系。假定技术进步不仅仅来自国内研发投入的结果,而且还来自对外界先进技术的模仿与吸收,其中技术外溢效果又取决于一国人力资本存量的高低与贸易开放程度。通过对模型竞争性市场均衡的求解,研究发现长期稳态增长率依赖于人力资本存量、研发产出效率以及贸易开放程度,因此拓展了已有增长模型对开放经济增长问题的研究。实证研究则运用中国区域面板数据,对理论研究结论进行了检验,其中技术外溢渠道包括进口贸易与外商直接投资两类。实证研究结果发现,对样本期间中国区域经济增长而言,投资率是关键的推动因素,然而研发投入与人力资本积累同样起到了不可忽视的作用。同时,在研发投入方面,来自国外研发外溢的技术进步作用更为显著;比较两类技术外溢的传播渠道,研究表明外商直接投资的技术外溢效果可能要比进口贸易更为显著。最后总结了论文研究的主要结论,并对后续研究可能方向进行了展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 The three magnificent technological revolutions during the global economic development clearly demonstrate the key role of technological change and innovation activities in the long-run economic growth. As a result, the difference in R&D expenditures and innovation efficiency among different countries has been the major research topics for the new growth theories, as Romer and Lucas being the research pioneers. Similarly, although China’s economy has experienced a steady rapid growth since its reform and opening-up, certain problems also exist during its economic growth achievements, especially the change of China’s economic growth patterns. Therefore, this dissertation attempts to combine those driving forces of long-run economic growth, including technological change, innovation as well as human capital accumulation, to investigate the mechanism of modern economic growth, especially by introducing the role of international trade and foreign investment, to study economic growth in the case of economic opening.This dissertation presents a literature review on the recent development of economic growth theories, especially on the modern economic growth theories. We mainly classify the previous literatures into two types: one based on technological change and the other based on human capital accumulation. We review those papers from the perspectives of both economic growth mechanism and model establishment, and in the meanwhile, we also show our comments on the existent studies. Theoretical researches in this paper first investigates how the government can intervene the economic growth by using fiscal policy. Based on the horizontal R&D-driven endogenous growth model, we show that there is efficiency loss in the decentralized economy due to monopolistic pricing in intermediate goods sector and externality in R&D sector. The forth part establish an endogenous growth model driven by both technological change and human capital accumulation. While the innovation rate is determined by the human capital employment in R&D sector like Romer (1990), the endogenous growth rate of human capital is also determined by the employment in this sector like Lucas (1988). In the meanwhile, the Jones (1995) method has also been adopted in order to overcome the scale effect in Romer’s model. By endogenizing both innovation and human capital accumulation, the model shows how long-run economic growth rate essentially depends on both R&D inputs and human capital accumulation. In the next chapter, the role of economic opening and technological imitation are introduced. Once international trade and foreign investment are considered, technological change depends on not only self-innovation, but also technological imitation and absorption, while the latter is determined by the technological absorption capability in the host country. The competitive market solution demonstrates that steady state growth rate is a function of human capital stock, innovation efficiency as well as degree of openness and financial development in the host country, while shows the importance of international trade and technology absorption in long-run economic growth.Empirical research has also been made in the sixth part, by using China’s panel data of 29 provinces during the period of 1992～2002. Both import and foreign direct investment are chosen as the major two channels of international technology spillovers. Our estimation results show that for China’s regional economic growth, investment rate is the key variable, while R&D input and human capital accumulation also play an important role. As for R&D expenditures, it’s found that technology spillover of foreign R&D may play a more important role than domestic R&D, while the spillover effect of foreign direct investment may be more significant than import. The last chapter summarizes the major conclusions of this dissertation, and also discusses the possible extension of future research.更多还原