【作者】 熊厚；

【导师】 李天德；

【作者基本信息】 四川大学 ， 世界经济， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 在20世纪末，新千年的曙光即将到来之前，欧洲经济一体化更加深入，法国、德国等对人类发展史作出过重要贡献的西欧国家在经济共同体、统一大市场的基础上结成了更为紧密的联盟——经货联盟。经货联盟并不是一蹴而就的，而是有着相当长的发展历程，从最初级的经济合作逐渐走向高级的货币一体化。欧元的流通是一件具有跨时代意义的大事件，对欧盟经济及整个世界经济产生了深远的影响，主要体现在以下三方面：第一，欧元的诞生将逐渐改变货币的国际格局，有可能出现欧元与美元分庭抗礼的状态。以欧元和美元为主导，日元为小伙伴的两极货币体系很可能取代20世纪大部分时间里盛行的以美元为中心的不平衡的国际货币体系。第二，欧洲统一的货币区对其他经济体产生了巨大的示范效应，冲击了现行的浮动汇率体制。欧洲经货联盟的成功运行给世界其他经济体带来了强大的示范效应，东亚、非洲等经济体都在讨论成立统一的货币区。第三，统一的货币将进一步加深欧元区内各国商品市场、劳动力市场、金融市场的融合，使欧洲各国经济趋向同步，促进欧洲经济贸易的进一步发展。在这种背景下，中外经济学家围绕欧洲统一货币区展开了广泛的研究，从不同的视角去研究欧洲经货联盟的运行，但专门研究欧盟货币政策协调的成果相对较少，而欧洲经货联盟的成功运行和欧元的流通很大程度上应该归功于欧盟各国长期卓有成效的货币政策协调。因此，对欧盟货币政策协调进行深入研究有着重要的研究意义和学术价值。本文以欧盟货币政策协调为研究对象，从历史发展和制度变迁的视角对其进行论述，目的是通过对欧盟货币政策协调发展的历史分析，找寻出欧盟货币政策协调当前和未来的发展趋势。本文的研究思路是围绕以下问题展开的：一、在欧洲经济一体化的进程中，欧盟各成员国采取过什么样的货币政策协调措施及其促使这些措施不断发展变化的原因是什么?二、当前欧盟采取了什么样的货币政策协调方式，这些举措对欧洲的经济发展产生了什么效应?三、欧盟货币政策协调的现行制度体系还存在哪些矛盾，如何解决?四、未来欧盟货币政策协调的发展趋势是什么，欧盟东扩后应该首先解决哪些问题?五，欧盟货币政策协调对东亚货币合作有什么启示?对上述问题的回答构成了本文的研究思路。在研究方法上，本文坚持马克思的唯物主义历史观，主要运用了历史与逻辑相统一，实证分析与规范分析相结合，理论与实际问题相联系，以及演化论、案例研究、图表分析等多种方法。具体而言，本文分为以下七章。第一章，导论。在导论部分介绍了本文的选题背景、目的，论证了本文写作的理论价值和实际意义；对本文的研究体系和主要内容框架进行了概括，指出了研究的重点和难点，明确了研究方向；对与研究的主体——欧盟货币政策协调相关的概念进行了详细的阐述。第二章，欧盟货币政策协调的理论基础。主要分析了支撑欧盟货币政策协调的两大理论流派——最优货币区理论和汇率目标区理论，对这两大理论流派进行了评述，指出了其中需要加以完善和发展的地方。第三章，欧洲一体化进程中货币政策协调的发展沿革。从历史的角度考察了各个时期欧洲货币政策协调的发展，分析了促使欧洲各国进行货币政策协调的因素。将欧洲货币政策协调进行了阶段性划分，对不同时期的货币政策协调进行比较，分析了欧洲货币政策协调的递进性，即欧洲经济一体化的不断深化、寻求区域货币主导等因素为货币政策协调的递进注入了动力。第四章，货币联盟——欧盟货币政策协调的制度选择。从制度的角度对欧盟货币政策协调进行研究，欧盟货币政策协调主要由欧洲中央银行体系主导，包括两大部分：欧元区内欧洲中央银行制定单一货币政策，但由各成员国中央银行分散执行；欧洲中央银行体系以汇率机制Ⅱ为纽带协调区内国和区外国货币政策。结合欧洲经货联盟的运行实践，对这种制度运行带来的经济效应进行了实证分析。第五章，欧盟货币政策协调的非对称制度设计面临的内外制约。着重研究了欧元正式流通以来欧盟货币政策协调面临的二元性矛盾，对欧元区内部货币政策协调制度设计的矛盾和欧盟货币政策与财政政策、社会保障政策等其他宏观经济政策之间的矛盾进行了深入研究，提出了针对性的解决措施。第六章，改革和完善欧盟货币政策协调的理论构想。针对欧盟货币政策协调中出现的矛盾，在总结以往的发展经验上，结合欧盟东扩和欧盟经济、政治发展的具体实际，归纳了欧盟货币政策协调制度的演进原则，将政治学的治理理论应用于欧盟货币政策协调和其他宏观经济政策协调的研究，分析了欧盟货币政策协调和其他宏观经济政策的联动发展，指出多元化的协调模式并存于欧盟货币政策及其配套政策的协调。第七章，以东亚货币政策协调促进区域货币一体化。借鉴欧盟货币政策协调的经验，研究了东亚货币合作的发展前景，提出以加强货币政策协调促进东亚货币一体化。本文在以下几个方面进行了新的探索：第一，扩大了欧盟货币政策协调的内涵。本文研究的欧盟货币政策协调是指欧洲中央银行体系为建立相对稳定的货币区域，在货币金融领域内采取的一系列调停、配合和合作手段。欧盟货币政策协调不仅包括货币政策目标的协调、货币政策取向的协调、利率政策等的协调，还包括汇率政策的协调。第二，从内部相互作用和外部政策制约两个层次对欧盟货币政策协调进行了研究。内部相互作用是指欧盟各成员国就货币政策进行的协调，比如货币政策目标的协调、货币政策取向的协调、利率政策的协调等；外部政策制约是指货币政策与其他宏观经济政策之间的协调，比如与财政政策、与社会保障政策的协调等。第三，通过比较各个时期的欧洲货币政策协调，指出了欧盟货币政策协调的特征。本文以历史为主线，把欧洲货币政策的协调分为不同的发展阶段，从协调的主体、深度、机制和效果比较了不同时期欧洲货币政策的协调，指出欧盟货币政策协调具有规则性、渐进性和超国家性的特征。第四，深入研究了欧盟货币政策协调中的“路径依赖”现象。纵观欧洲货币政策协调的发展过程，上一阶段对后一阶段的发展提供了强力的锁定，后一阶段积极借鉴上一阶段的发展经验，使货币政策协调沿着可预期的轨迹发展，“路径依赖”现象非常明显。第五，归纳了欧盟货币政策协调改革应把握的基本原则。制度化的一体化原则保证了欧盟货币政策协调的稳定性；多边主义磋商原则保留了欧盟货币政策协调的弹性；辅助性原则合理划分了欧盟货币政策协调的权力；成本——利益比较原则体现了欧盟货币政策协调的利益取向。第六，提出并研究了欧盟货币政策协调和其他宏观经济政策协调的联动发展。在欧洲经济一体化的发展过程中，货币政策协调、财政政策协调、贸易政策协调及其他宏观经济政策的协调体现了不同的发展模式和发展层次，这些政策协调是互相影响、互相作用的。本文将政治学的治理理论应用于欧盟货币政策协调和其他宏观经济政策协调的研究，分析了欧盟货币政策协调和其他宏观经济政策协调的联动发展，指出多元化的协调模式并存于欧盟货币政策及其配套政策的协调。由于获取数据资料困难和作者计量分析能力有限，本文对欧洲经货联盟建立以来的收益和成本的实证研究不足。从收益来讲，只是选取了经济增长、贸易、区内分工等有限的指标进行简单的经验分析。从成本来讲，只是停留在最优货币区理论中的经典理论分析中，没有考察非对称性冲击和对称性冲击对货币区的危害的具体效应。欧盟货币政策协调制度变迁的历史进步性，不是依靠制度自身的特性去证明，而是依靠制度变迁带来的社会生产力发展和解放的成果来证明。因此，这将是作者未来研究中将解决的问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 When the transit of the 20th century to 21st century, on the basis of economic community and common market, European economy integration carries through more deeply and turns out to be a closer union—monetary union. Monetary union did not come into being suddenly but developed for quite a long time. Monetary integration is developing with economy integration. The formal introduction of Euro democratically and equally initiates area monetary integration and has great influence on economy of EU as well as the whole world, which primarily has three aspects as following: Firstly, the birth of Euro will gradually change the international momentary system and enable it to be the two-pole rivalry state between dollars and Euro. Secondly, EMU will exert great influence of demonstration to other economy unit and huge effect on the current floating exchange rate. The successful proceeding of EMU will have great demonstration influence, which leads to the discussion of establishing monetary area in economy unit, such as East Asia and Africa, and the tendency of returning to fixed exchange rate. Thirdly, the uniform currency will deepen the integration of product, labor and financial market in European’ s countries, which enables economy of the European’ s countries progress toward the same rate and fosters the advancement. In such background, the domestic and foreign scholars begin to do the extensive research about function of EMU from different angles, however, they pay attention to the theory of monetary integration、theory of international monetary policy coordination、theory of European Central Bank System(ECBS)、monetary policy of European Central Bank、coordination between uniform monetary policy and independent financial policy in Euro area、apocalypse of Euro internationalization and successful experience to the cooperation of other economy unit and so on. Although the successful function of EMU and circulation of Euro were contributed much to the effective long-term coordination of monetary policy in all European countries, the particular researches about coordination system of European countries’ monetary policy are comparatively few. Therefore, the coordination of EU’ s monetary policy has much research significance and science value, which is the writing purpose of this paper.This paper takes the coordination of European Union’ s monetary policy as the research object and conduct research on it from historical and institutional perspective. The aim is to find the developing mode of coordination of European Union’ s monetary policy in current times and future times. There are some questions in the paper. 1. In the past time, which coordination methods did the member countries of EU choose? Why did the member countries innovate in these methods? 2. Which coordination methods do the member countries of EU choose? How do the methods affect EU’ s economy? 3. Are there any problems in the coordination of European Union’ s monetary policy? How to do with them? 4. Which mode will the coordination of European Union’ s monetary policy choose? 5. What revelations can the coordination of European Union’ s monetary policy bring for China? The answers to above-mentioned problems form the research train of thoughts in this dissertation. As far as analytical methods are concerned, the dissertation has adopted historical method united with logical method, the standard analytical method combined with the demonstrative analytical method and theoretics connected with practice. This paper contains seven parts in all.Chapter 1 is introduction. The introductory part describes the background and propose of the selected subject, and then argues the theoretical and practical value; the introductory part also generalizes the research system and main content, points out the research pivots and difficulties, ascertains the direction of research; In addition, the introductory part clarifies the principal object in detail and particularizes the circumscribed concepts used in the research; In the second place, the introductory part analyzes coordination of EU’ s monetary policy from two aspects of theory and historical development.Chapter 2 is academic basis of coordination of EU’ s monetary policy . The paper chiefly analyzes two theoretical genres supportingcoordination of EU’ s monetary policy-optimium currency area theoryand international coordination monetary policy theory, and appraises them as well as points some places which need perfecting and developing. From the point of view combining theory with coordination of EU’ s monetary policy, the author explains the necessity and feasibility of the coordination of EU’ s monetary policy and indicates it has exceeded the theoretical progress, hence , it is very meaningful to treat such a phenomenon as a research example.In the 3nd chap, from historical angle the paper investigates development of the coordination of EU’ s monetary policy at different periods and analyzes those factors promoting coordination of monetary policy in European countries. It divides coordination of EU’ s monetary policy into different phases and vertically compares the coordination of monetary policy at different phases , meanwhile, analyzes its successiveness. That is to say. such factors as the successively in-depth European economy integration、search for dominant area money etc play an important role as impetus of proceeding the coordination of EU’ s monetary policy.In the 4nd chap, the coordination of EU’ s monetary policy is studied from angle of system and its system’ s evolution direction is analyzed either. The coordination system of EU’ s monetary policy principally contains two major parts: one is the single monetary policy, the other is the coordination of monetary policy in and out area, utilizing exchange rate mechanism II as pivot , which is leaded by ECBs. Combined with the practice of EMU, the economy effect resulting from the function of such system is empirically analyzed.In the 5nd chap, we emphasis on the research about duality contradiction aroused by the coordination of EU’ s monetary policy when Euro formally circulates , and make a breakthrough research at the conflict of the interior monetary policy coordination and at other conflicts between single monetary policy and macro-economy policies such as social security policy and so forth in Euro areas.In the 6nd chap, pointing to conflicts in the coordination of EU’ s monetary policy , and linking the past successful experience with the pratice of European Union’ s expanding to east and its economical and political development, we apply the governability theory in politics to the research of coordination of EU’ s monetary policy and bring forward theoretical hypothesis of reforming and developing coordination of EU’ s monetary policy.Finally, by adopting experience of coordination of EU’ s monetary policy, we investigate the prospect of cooperation among currencies of East Asian and put forward the viewpoint of strengthening the coordination of monetary policies to accelerate the cooperation of East-Asian’ s currencies.The following aspects are also explored in this dissertation.First, extend the meaning of monetary policy coordination in EU. The coordination of EU’ s monetary policy is that ECBs adopt a series of methods to establish the relatively stable currency area. It includes not only the coordination of the aim of monetary policy, the coordination of preference of monetary policy, the coordination of interest policy, but also the coordination of exchange rate policy.Second, the EU’ s monetary policy coordination mechanism has been divided for the internal movement and exterior coordinates. The internal coordination mechanism is that the European Union various member nations carry on the coordination on the monetary policy, for instance the coordination of monetary policy goal, the coordination of monetary policy orientation, the coordination of interest rate policy. Exterior coordination the mechanism is the European Union various member nations carry on the coordination between the monetary policy and other macroeconomic polices.Third , the coordination of EU’ s monetary policy in different times is compared and the characteristics of coordination of monetary policy has been induced. The coordination of EU’ s monetary policy is divided into different development phases in historical aspect. The author compared the coordination of EU’ s monetary policy in different times in these aspects, such as the main body, the depth, the mechanism and the effect of coordination. It has regulation, gradual and superanational characteristic.Fouth, there is Path-Dependence in the coordination of EU’ s monetary policy. Looking over the developing process of the coordination of EU’ s monetary policy, we can find that the past phase locked the tendency of next phase and next phase adopt the experience of past phase. This causes the the coordination of EU’ s monetary policy to develop in an anticipated path.Fifth, This paper summarized the principals of the coordination of EU’ s monetary policy. The principal of convergence of system guarantees the stability of the coordination of EU’ s monetary policy. The principal of multi lateral ism negotiation keeps the flexibility of the coordination of EU’ s monetary policy. Principle of subsidiarity shares the authority of the coordination of EU’ s monetary policy reasonably. The principal of cost compared with benefits shows the preference of the coordination of EU’ s monetary policy.Sixth, the coordination of EU’ s monetary policy and other macro-economical policies have different development patterns. European countries have adopted the different development patterns in the different development phase, even if EU does not have completely use the identical pattern in current times. These pattern includes mulual adjustment, intergovernment negotiatation, supranational , Joint decision mode and the open method of coordination. The degree of EU economic integration is not same in various stages. This causes diversification in the coordination of EU’ s monetary policy and other macro-economical policies.Because of the difficulty of getting data, The paper didn’ t do thorough research to the cost and benefit which monetary union brings to EU. As far as benefit is concerned, only a few indexes were chosen, such as the development of economy, trade and specialization. As far as cost is concerned, the paper did not investigate the effect of unsymmetrical shock in practice. The advancement of institutional innovation of the coordination of EU’ s monetary policy is not based on itself. It must be proved by the development of productivity. All of these are the focus point which the author will continue to pay attention to.更多还原