【作者】 黄伟力；

【导师】 隋广军；

【作者基本信息】 暨南大学 ， 产业经济学， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 动态效率问题是资本积累和经济增长研究中的核心问题。本文以中国经济的动态效率为研究对象，按照经济增长理论发展的历史演进顺序，从理论上论证了经济体出现动态无效率即资本过度积累的可能性，并利用数值模拟和计量检验等多种方法对我国经济的动态效率进行了实证检验。本文的主要结论有：第一，无论是在外生增长的新古典模型，还是在内生增长的模型中，经济体的动态无效率都是有可能出现的，而与技术进步内外生与否无关；第二，竞争性经济出现动态无效率的根本原因在于Shell所谓的“双重无限性”，即代理人和商品数量的双重无限性；第三，通过对同时具有人力资本内生和干中学带来的技术进步的OLG模型的分析表明，人力资本投资的不足即物质资本相对于人力资本的过度投资是造成经济体出现动态无效率的原因；第四，通过运用数值模拟的方法、经济整体的净现金流检验的方法以及建立在协整和误差模型上的计量检验方法对我国经济在1978-2003年的动态效率进行了实证检验，总体看来，我国经济的动态有效性在逐渐恶化，特别是进入21世纪的几年里我国经济是动态无效的，我国的物质资本积累过度；第五，通过对资本利润率的决定因素的实证分析，发现技术进步率是决定资本利润率的主要因素，进而是决定经济体的动态有效性的主要因素。本文的一个主要的政策含义是要改进我国经济动态效率，必须提高技术进步率，在本文的讨论框架中就是提高人力资本投资相对于物质资本投资的比例。更多还原

【Abstract】 The issue of dynamic efficiency is central to the analyses of capital accumulation and economic growth. This paper investigates dynamic efficiency of Chinese economy. In the historical order of theoretical developments of economic growth models, the possibility of dynamic inefficiency, that is, the possibility of capital over-accumulation is firstly analyzed in exogenous and endogenous OLG growth models; then the dynamic efficiency of Chinese economy is assessed utilizing methods of numerical simulation, net cash flow and econometric method of co-integration and error-correction.The major results of this paper consists of: firstly, whether in exogenous neoclassical growth models or endogenous new growth models, the possibility of dynamic inefficiency may arise not depending on the origins of technological progress; secondly, the fundamental reason of economy’s dynamic inefficiency is due to what Shell called "double infinity", that is, there exist infinite agents and commodities in OLG economy; thirdly, based on the analysis of endogenous growth model with human capital accumulation and technological progress through learning-by-doing, it is found that the relative insufficiency of human capital to physical capital is one of the reasons causing dynamic inefficiency; fourthly, utilizing methods of numerical simulation, net cash flow and econometric method of co-integration and error-correction, the dynamic efficiency of Chinese economy from 1978 to 2003 is empirically assessed and the test results show on balance the dynamic efficiency is become worse, and, in particular, in the several years entering the 21century, the Chinese economy is dynamically inefficient and too much physical capital is accumulated; lastly, through analysis of empirical determinants of capital profitability, it is found that technological progress is the main determinant of capital profitability which in turn is the main factor determining Chinese economy’s dynamic efficiency.One of the main policy implications of this paper is that to improve Chinese economy’s dynamic efficiency, the ratio of human capital investment relative to physical capital investment should be raised.更多还原