【作者】 张婕；

【导师】 王济干； 王慧敏；

【作者基本信息】 河海大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 面对大型工程投资决策中复杂多变的柔性影响因素，提出应在柔性理论指导下进行大型工程投资的柔性决策。大型工程投资决策问题的研究，不仅仅是方法的研究，更重要的是树立科学的理念。本文的核心就是如何应用柔性理论的理念研究大型工程投资决策问题，它关系到国民经济和社会发展转轨过程中有限资源是否能够得到合理的配置和有效利用的问题。在柔性理论、决策理论、协同学理论、和谐理论的基础上，详细研究了柔性决策理论。提出了柔性的7种内涵，并给出了柔性决策的特征。研究了柔性决策的原则、程序、方法体系以及其关键问题。在柔性决策理论的指导下，从系统角度，研究大型工程投资决策系统的要素、系统结构与功能。并对其决策系统进行了柔性辨析，提出了大型工程投资的柔性决策体系，包括大型工程投资柔性决策的准则、程序以及内容。针对大型工程投资决策主体复杂多变的特点，从决策组织结构的角度出发构建了面向柔性的松散式团队群集的柔性决策组织结构，并提出了相应的完善决策组织结构的措施。在大型工程投资方案的综合评价环节，借鉴金融学中的实物期权理论改进传统的经济评价投资决策方法，建立了基于实物期权的大型工程投资柔性决策模型。并在此基础上，运用交互式思想、变分方法，建立了针对大型工程投资多目标的交互式多目标投资方案决策模型。针对投资决策过程中的主体利益冲突问题，建立了大型工程投资的协商群决策柔性模型。结合河北省南水北调配套工程的实例进行实证分析，验证了大型工程投资柔性决策方法与机制的合理性与可行性，对于一般大型工程的投资决策具有重要的启示意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Facing the flexible factors in the large project investing decision, the idea is put up that the large project investment should be decided flexibly in the direction of flexibility theory. The study on the problems of large project investing decision is not only the new methods but also the scientific ideas. The essence of the following article is how to use the flexibility theory into solving the large project investment decision, which relate to the problems that whether the limited resources can be allocated rationally and can be used effectively during the course of social development.The flexible decision making is studied clearly on the base of the flexibility theory, decision making theory, conspiracy theory and hamoniousness theory. Seven cannotes and the characters of flexible decision making are put forward. In the direction of flexibility theory, the factors, the structure and the function of the large project investment decision system are studied from the view of system. After the flexible factors of the decision system were studied, the bylaw and the procedure of large project investment decision are also studied. Aiming at complex decision makers, the structure of loose throng project integrated team is established, and the corresponding tactics are also put forward.During the overall ecaluation phase, the real option theory is used to analyze the flexibility value of large project and the flexibility decision model on the base of real option is established. Aiming at the characters of muti-objective, uncertain and so on, the article establishes the investing projects choice model on the interactive idea. Aiming at the benefits conflict problems among different departments and different industries in the large project investing decision, the article establishes the interactive multi-object decision model.Finally, validating the scientism、rationality and feasibility of the large project investing flexible decision method and mechanism with the fact of the South-to-North water transfer investment decisio in Hebei province n, which has an important significance to the general large project.更多还原