【作者】 罗恩平；

【导师】 张文棋；

【作者基本信息】 福建农林大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 转型期，我国农户信贷市场存在着一系列值得注意的经济现象：(1)正规金融机构的农户信贷比例呈下降趋势，而非正规农户信贷不断增加；(2)正规农户信贷市场中，金融机构的参与态度有很大不同，国有商业银行基本上选择退出农户信贷市场，而农村信用社则加大对农户信贷市场的投入；(3)各地农户信贷利率差异很大，既有互助性质的零利率、金融机构的中等利率，也有私人借贷的高利率。那么，为什么我国农户难以获取正规金融机构的贷款支持?非正规农户信贷存在并得以快速发展的机理何在?政府在农户信贷领域合理的政策应该如何选择?本文从信贷需求和供给两方面，从微观的角度对上述的几个问题进行理论上的探讨和解释，并提供来自福建省的初步经验证据。围绕着这些问题，本文核心内容主要从三个方面进行论述，第四章对农户信贷需求的产生机理、主要特征以及影响因素进行理论解释和实证观察；第五章对农村金融机构参与农户信贷市场的不同态度进行了理论上的解释，并利用福建农村信用社的系统资料对影响农户信贷的因素进行实证分析；第六章对我国非正规农户信贷市场存在并发展以及复杂的利率现象进行了理论上的解释，并通过一个村庄的案例加以实证。在第四章中，通过理论描述和计量模型分析得出了几个主要结论：(1)转型期，由于农户收入和储蓄水平都比较低，农户收入在季节上分布的不均衡性和年度波动性以及农户支出的相对稳定性是造成农户信贷需求的主要原因；(2)在对农户信贷需求进行重新分类的基础上，我们认为，除了非农生产信贷需求以外，其他的信贷需求都具有刚性特征，对利率的敏感性不强，因此，农户信贷市场的利率水平主要取决于信贷供给方，我们发现，这个结论可以解释当前农户信贷利率在不同地区存在多样性的特征；(3)实证研究表明，农户存在较为严重的信贷约束，正规金融和非正规金融都无法完全满足农户的信贷需求；由于信息结构上的差异，非正规金融更容易从农户的家庭特征中来判断是否提供农户信贷，正规金融则无法做到这一点。第五章对商业银行退出农户信贷市场而农村信用社加大对农户信贷投入的现象进行理论上的解释，通过对福建省农村信用社的报表资料和访谈资料，对影响农户信贷行为的主要因素进行统计描述。本章认为，(1)金融管制条件下的资产选择行为是造成商业银行退出农户信贷市场以及农村信用社加大农户信贷的主要原因。由于存在与农户信贷市场平行的，但成本和风险都比较低的城市居民和大中型企业的信贷市场，商业银行选择从农户信贷市场退出。农村信用社受到分支机构和资本金的约束，只能选择农户信贷市场或者小企业信贷市场，为了分散风险，农村信用社加大了农户信贷投放力度；(2)农村信用社的农户信贷行为受到信贷能力、信贷意愿和政策因素等方面的影响。实证研究表明，存款增加、政策推动以及其他贷款对象信贷风险较高对农户信贷有正面的影响；流动性管理能力较弱，农户信贷的经营成本较高等因素对农户信贷有负面影响。第六章解释了我国非正规农户信贷存在并且占主导地位的原因以及非正规农户信贷复杂的利率现象；通过一个村庄民间“标会”的案例分析，从实证角度考察非正规金融的运行机制。本章的案例研究发现，(1)正规金融机构金融服务不足是标会产生的重要原因，会员参会的原因涉及农户生产和生活的各个方面；(2)标会活动中内含的甄别、筛选机制、灵活的担保机制、互助机制和社会惩罚机制是标会活动顺利运转的重要保证和前提条件；(3)在缺乏农业保险制度的条件下，农业生产的自然风险和市场风险容易转化成农户的信贷风险；(4)农村标会利率具有一定的分割性，利率水平总体上低于高利贷利率但高于正规金融机构的贷款利率。针对以上的研究结论，本文提出应该从加快农户收入增加，减少农户收入的波动性：增强农户信贷市场的信息供给；拓展农村的抵押担保品；建立多层次农村金融机构体系；继续推进农村利率市场化进程，建立存款保险制度，完善农村金融法律；强化政府和中介机构的服务；培育农村要素的交易市场等方面解决农户信贷问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 During the transitional period, a series of economic phenomena exist in the rural households credit market that are worth our attention: (1) the proportion of rural households loans in formal financial institutions is on the decline while that in informal financial institutions is constantly increasing; (2) among the formal rural households credit market, different financial institutions take different attitudes of participation. State-owned commercial banks choose to withdraw from the market while rural credit cooperative increases to invest in this field. (3) Great rate differentials exist in different regions. There are mutual-aid zero interest rates, medium interest rates in financial institutions, and also high rates of private credit. Then, why is it difficult for farmers to gain support from formal financial institution? What is the basis for the rapid growth of informal rural credit? What policies should government adopt in this field?This thesis makes a theoretical discussion and explanation on the above questions from a micro perspective in terms of demand and supply of credit with empirical evidence from Fujian Province. Centered on these questions, this thesis makes analysis mainly from three aspects. Chapter Four gives a theoretical explanation and demonstrative observation on the occurrence mechanism, major characters and influence factors of the demand of rural credit. Chapter Five makes a theoretical explanation on different participation attitudes that financial institutions take in rural credit market and gives a specific analysis of factors influencing rural credit by using the systematic data from r rural households credit cooperative in Fujian Province. Chapter Six gives a theoretical explanation on the preset situation and future development of informal rural households credit market and an analysis of the complex rate differentials with evidence from a specific village.In Chapter Four, some conclusions are reached through theoretical explanation and metric model analysis: (1) during the transitional period, due to relatively low income and deposits of rural households, the imbalance of income distribution in different seasons and years and relatively stability of payout constitute the major reasons for demand of rural credit; (2) on the basis of re-categorization of demands, we believe, apart from demand on non-agricultural industry credit, all the others share the property of rigidity and insensitivity to interest rate. Therefore, the interest rate in rural households credit market mainly depends on the supplier. We find this conclusion can explain the various features of interest rates in different rural areas. (3) Evidence proves that rural households meet with severe limitations in the credit are and the credit from both formal and informal financial institutions can’ t satisfy their needs; on account of difference in information structure, the informal financial institutions are more favorable in determining whether to provide the farmers with credit from their family features compared with formal ones.Chapter Five points out that (1) asset choice behavior under the financial regulation constituents the major reason for the withdrawal of commercial banks and the increasing input of rural credit cooperative. Considering the lower costs and risks in the paralleling credit markets in urban area and large or medium enterprises, commercial banks decide to withdraw from the rural credit market. As for rural credit cooperative, due to the limitations of branches and funds, it aims mainly at farmers or small enterprises. In order to reduce the risks, it increases the input in farmers’ credit; (2) the farmers’ credit behavior of rural credit cooperative is subject to the influence of credit capacity, credit willingness and policies. Our evidence has proved that rapid growth in deposits, the promotion of policies and comparatively higher risks of other credits exert positive effects on rural credit; impotency in liquidity management and high costs in administration play a negative role.Chapter Six explains the reasons for the existence and predominant position of informal rural households credit and the complexities of interest rates in informal rural households credit market and research the operation mechanism of informal finance from a positivist perspective with a case study of "Rotating Savings and Credit Association (ROSCA) " . This case study shows that, (1) the inadequacy of service in the formal financial institution constitutes the key cause of ROSCA and the reasons for villager’ participation in it are related to all aspects of production and life; (2) the inherent discrimination, selection and flexible security mechanisms, along with mutual mechanism and social punishment mechanism make an important guarantee and lay a foundation for the successful operation of ROSCA; (3) under the circumstances of lack of agricultural insurance system, the natural risks and market risks in agricultural production tend to transform into credit risks; (4) there is a range of rate differentials in the ROSCA but on the whole, the overall level is higher than that in formal financial institution.In conclusion, this thesis puts forward that the following measures should be taken to solve the rural credit problems: the information supply for rural households credit market should be strengthened, the rural pledge be extended; a multi-layer rural financial institution system should be established; the marketization of rural interest rate should be accelerated; deposits insurance system should be built up and rural financial law improved; the service of government and intermediary organizations should be intensified; a trade market with rural elements should be set up, the income for farmers should be increased and the instability of their income should be reduced.更多还原