【作者】 李艳梅；

【导师】 张雷；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 产业经济学， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 能源是城市化发展的重要物质基础。长期以来，中国城市化发展始终面临着来自能源供应的严峻挑战，特别是自2004年以来，能源供需矛盾进一步凸显。目前，中国城市化正处于快速发展阶段，且未来20～30年内将依然保持较快的发展速度。因此，能否建立一个支撑城市化发展目标顺利实现的能源保障基础，是未来中国城市化发展进程中无法回避的重大现实问题。论文运用能源经济学和城市经济学的基本理论，分析了城市化对能源需求的影响机理；概括了中国城市化进程中的能源需求特征，并以投入产出分析作为基本方法，对中国城市化发展进程中能源需求增长成因进行了计量分析；进而对中国未来城市化发展的能源需求进行预测并提出能源保障对策。论文的主要内容和结论有如下几个方面：首先，阐述了能源需求分析的理论基础，指出能源既是生产过程中一种必不可少的生产要素，又是生活中不可或缺的一种必需品，因此能源需求既有要素需求又有商品需求，既有直接需求又有间接需求。第二，探讨了城市化对能源需求的影响机理，指出城市化进程中生产和生活方式的转变，会直接或间接地影响生产部门的能源要素需求以及生活部门的能源商品需求。第三，在对中国城市化进程中的能源需求进行分析时发现，中国城市化进程中的能源消费在总量不断增加的同时，具有明显的阶段性特征。由于目前中国城市化正处在快速发展阶段，社会生产和生活活动对能源的依赖性日益增强，消费结构优化的趋势明显加快，能源保障压力与日俱增。第四，构建了城市化进程中能源需求增长的成因分析的SDA模型，并对中国城市化进程中能源需求增长成因进行实证分析。分析结果表明，造成中国城市化进程生产能源需求增长的基本成因在于：经济规模的扩大、重化工业在产业结构中的比重不断增加以及经济增长方式的粗放；造成间接生活能源需求增长的主要原因则在于：居民生活消费总量的扩大、消费结构的升级以及城镇消费比重的上升。与此同时，在抑制能源需求的增加方面，节能技术进步则起到了至关重要的作用。第五，进一步的分析表明，未来中国的城市化还将保持较快的速度发展，生产和生活能源需求也将相应增加，并要求能源消费结构进一步优化。与之相比，中国的能源保障前景并不乐观，因此城市化发展的能源保障对策必须坚持节约需求和增强供应并重，并以节约优先的原则。第六，鉴于不容乐观的中国能源供应保障形势，论文提出如下对策：大力推进技术节能应用，全面提高能源利用效率；加快经济增长方式转变，发挥结构节能效应；积极倡导节约型消费方式，减缓生活能源消费的快速增长；努力发展洁净煤技术，提高煤炭供应质量；充分利用国际资源市场，确保国内油气供应稳定；不断开发可再生能源，逐步实现能源生产多元化；努力加强基础设施建设，提高能源综合运输能力。更多还原

【Abstract】 Energy is the important material base for urbanization development. But in the long run, China’s urbanization faces energy supply challenges. Especially since 2004, contradiction between energy supply and demand is more obvious. Now China’s urbanization is at its middle stage currently, it will keep faster speed continually for twenty to thirty years in the future. So whether energy supply base for sustaining urbanization development can be established or not will be an incapable to avoid problem in the China’s urbanization process.This dissertation uses theory of energy economics and urban economics, analyses the mechanism of urbanization influence to energy demand, analyses energy demand increase reason during urbanization process by input-output method, and forecasts energy demand in the future, puts forward some policies for saving energy demand and strengthening energy supply. The main contents and conclusions are listed in the following texts:First, this dissertation analyses theoretic base of energy demand, points out energy is an indispensable productive element of production process, at the same time energy also is an indispensable commodity of living. So energy demand can be divided of element demand and commodity demand, or direct demand and in direct demand.Second, on the base of above theoretic knowledge, this dissertation probes into the mechanism of urbanization influence to energy demand, indicates that during urbanization process, production and living mode’s transformation can directly or in directly influence energy element demand and commodity demand.Third, energy demand increase with urbanization level rise, and can be divided into two phases. China’s urbanization is at its fast develop stage currently, production and living need more energy, energy demand has new character, energy supply pressure increase continuously.Fourth, this dissertation uses input-output method, made SDA model, chooses 1987～2002 as sample period, analyses change trend and reason of production and household energy demand from time series angle. Structural decomposition analysis results indicate that production energy demand increases with urbanization level rises because of enlargement of economy scope, increasing of high energy-consuming industry’s proportion in industry structure, and rising of ratio of input to total Output; there are four factors result in indirect household energy demand increase that is consumption gross and structure, consumption portion between urban and rural, and intermediate input-output coefficient change; but there is only one factor- energy saving technology advancement to decrease production and indirect household energy demand.Fifth, further analysis indicate China’s urbanization will keep fast speed in the future, and production and household energy demand will increase accordingly, and energy demand structure will optimize. But China energy supply foreground is not optimistic. So when we make energy supply polices for urbanization development, we must insist on principle of "paying great attention both to development and saving and giving priority to energy saving".Finally, combining above theory and positive analysis, this dissertation puts forward some policies for saving energy demand, such as advancing energy use efficiency in order to develop energy saving potential by technology, transforming economy increase mode in order to exert energy saving effect by structure, and proposing economical Consumption way, in order to promote household energy save; and some policies for strengthening energy supply, such as developing clean coal technology in order to advance coal supply quality; making the best use of international resource in order to ease pressure of oil and gas shortage, actively developing renewable energy in order to realize energy multi-supply step by step, and strengthening infrastructure construction in order to improve energy transportation ability.更多还原