中国长三角地区外商直接投资的区位选择及经济增长效应研究

【作者】 毛新雅；

【导师】 王桂新；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 二十世纪七、八十年代以来，经济全球化趋势日益显著，国际直接投资增长迅猛。总结历史、面对现实，中国所面临的问题已经不是要不要引进外商直接投资(FDI)的问题，而是要引进怎样的FDI，引进的FDI其经济增长效应究竟如何的问题。二十一世纪以来，长江三角洲(长三角)地区已成为中国引进FDI的最重要区域，研究FDI在这一区域区位选择的影响因素及这一区域利用FDI的经济增长效应问题，对长三角地区乃至全国引进和利用FDI都有着较为重大的现实意义。本研究从FDI的区位选择理论及对东道国经济增长效应理论的文献考证入手，借鉴长三角地区FDI问题研究的已有成果，主要运用邓宁的OLI模型及综合发展主义、经济民族主义、内生经济增长理论等关于FDI对发展中东道国经济增长效应的主要观点，采用面板数据方法，对长三角地区FDI的区位选择及经济增长效应问题展开分析。首先，对长三角地区FDI的区位变动及发展趋势进行了考察。其次，从产业集聚理论视角出发，构筑了次国家层面的FDI区位选择模型，以分析长三角地区FDI区位决策的影响因素。再次，从FDI的资本形成作用、直接经济增长作用、生产率溢出效应、对外贸易效应等方面，展开FDI对长三角地区经济增长作刚问题的研究。并进一步从FDI的就业及城市化效应角度，对FDI经济增长效应的研究进行了拓展。最后，根据实证分析结论，提出有关政策启示，并对长三角地区未来引进和利用FDI问题进行了一定战略思考。本研究主要有以下发现。第一，1980年代中期以来，长三角地区与珠三角地区引进FDI所占全国比重呈现此消彼涨态势；FDI在长三角地区16城市间的区位变动，由集中趋向平衡分散，但比较GDP和人口等的分布，这一地区FDI的集中度仍属较高。第二，长三角地区FDI流入与地方专业化指数等产业集聚因素间呈现显著正相关关系(以江苏为例)；FDI在16城市间区位选择的主要影响因素是工业产品销售收入和FDI前期累积等产业集聚因素。第三，长三角地区FDI具有资本“挤入”效应，对16城市间的经济增速差距起到收敛作用，并且FDI对这一地区的直接经济增长具有显著正向推动作用，不过作用力度小于国内投资和劳动力等因素。第四，长三角地区FDI的产业结构，对促成上海建设“四个中心”及提升江苏通信产品等行业形成地方优势产业具有积极影响；FDI对江苏内资企业具有显著的行业内生产率溢出效应，对浙江和上海工业领域内资企业的生产率溢出效应不显著。第五，长三角地区FDI对对外贸易起到显著正向推动作用，并对上海与其主要FDI来源国(地区)间的双边贸易也起积极推动作用，长三角地区FDI与对外贸易间是互补关系。第六，长三角地区外资企业从业人数不断增加，但FDI存量与就业增长之间存在一定负向关系，FDI对就业产生了挤出效应；FDI对长三角地区吸引人口入迁的作用不显著，但对人口非农化存在显著正向推动作用，并且FDI对促成上海发展成为世界城市意义重大。本研究的主要政策启示在于，第一，以利用FDI的总量规模和经济增长效应相结合的标准看，长三角地区仍可继续扩大利用FDI的规模，但要注意从发展地方优势产业、营造产业集聚态势等方面入手，促进FDI在这一地区内部更合理的空间分布。第二，引导FDI采用先进技术，促使FDI更多的并购内资企业，以提升长三角地区FDI的产业结构升级作用生及产率溢出效应。第三，对技术含量不高FDI的进入在政策方面应有所限制，鼓励相关行业内资企业的发展壮大，以削减FDI对长三角地区就业增长的不利影响。基于对长三角地区引进和利用FDI的现状分析和我国已加入WTO的实际，本研究进一步对长三角地区未来引进和利用FDI做出了战略思考。第一，从国家竞争力高度看待长三角地区引进FDI和提高FDI利用效率的重要性。第二，建立长三角地区统一平台基础上引进和利用FDI的分工协作机制。第三，遵守WTO公正透明原则，逐步削减对FDI的超国民待遇，为国内资本在长三角地区投资创造更加公平的政策环境。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the increasing globalization of economic activity from between 1970’s and 1980’s, international direct investment grows rapidly. In the light of history lessons and the whole world scenario, the main issue now to China is not whether to accept FDI but what types FDI should be acceptted and how to take good use of it. From 21 century, the Yangtze Delta Region has become the most important region in China that fetches FDI. To study FDI’s location determinants and economic growth effects in this region has great significance for the Yangtze Delta Region itself and the whole country.After textual researching for FDI’s location determinant theory and FDI’s economic growth effect theory in host developing countries and consulting relative studies for the Yangtze Delta Region, this paper mainly adopts John.H.Dunning’s OLI model and compromises the viewpoints of developmentalism, economic nationalism and endogenous growth theory and applies panel data method to analyze FDI’s location determinants and economic growth effects in the Yangtze Delta Region. First, this paper researches FDI’ space-time distribution changing trend in the Yangtze Delta Region. Secondly, from industry agglomeration theory visual angle, this paper constructs FDI’s location determinant model based on hypo-nation layer to analyze FDI’s location choice in the region. Thirdly, study FDI’s economic growth effects from aspects of its capital shaping effect, direct economic growth effect, productivity spillover effect and foreign trade effect, etc. And also extend the study from the aspect of FDI’s employment effect and urbanization effect in the Yangtze Delta Region. Finally, according to the reach findings, this paper provides some policy implications and strategic thinking.The main findings are as follows. First, from the mid-1980s, proportions of the FDI taken use of by the Yangtze Delta and the Pearl River Delta of the total amount FDI taken use of by the whole country emerge posture of while one increasing, the other decreasing. FDI’s location distribution changing among the sixteen cities in the Yangtze Delta is becoming balanceable and dispersive, but compared with GDP and population’s distribution, FDI’s distribution is still denser. Second, the corealationship between FDI’s inflows and the index of regional specialization is significantly positive (take Jiangsu province as an example) and themain determinants influence FDI’s location choice among the sixteen cities are the factors which are token industry agglomeration such as sales revenue of industry products and FDI’s previous accumulation. Third, FDI crowds in domestic capital and impels economic growth speed to converge among the sixteen cities and also directly pushes forwards the economic growth of the Yangtze Delta Region, though its magnitude is smaller than factors as domestic capital and labor force. Forth, FDI’s industry structure is beneficial for Shanghai to grow up as "four centers" and for Jiangsu to get hold of communication industry etc as its competitive industry. FDI has significantly positive inter-industry productivity spillover effect in Jiangsu province, but as to Shanghai and Zhejiang province, this kind of spillover effect is not significant. Fifth, FDI spurs the foreign trade’s growth in the Yangtze Delta Region and also plays a significantly positive role in Shanghai’s bilateral trade. That is to say, the relationship between FDI and foreign trade in the Yangtze Delta Region is compensatory. Sixth, the amount of employees in foreign invested enterprises (FIEs) in the Yangtze Delta Region is increasing, but the relationship between FDI stock and employment growth is significantly negative, that is to say, FDI crowds out domestic employment. FDI’s role of attracting immigration is not significant but for non-agriculture, FDI’s role is significantly positive and also FDI has great significance for Shanghai to grow up as a world city.There are some policy implications. First, with the standard of combining FDI’s quantity with its economic growth effects, the Yangtze Delta Region may extend the amount of accepting FDI, but should pay attention to impelling FDI to locate more evenly from ways of developing regional competitive industry and building up industry agglomeration. Second, induce FDI to adopt more advanced technology and encourage FDI to merge and acquire domestic enterprises to improve FDI’s upgrading industry structure effect and productivity spillover effect in the Yangtze Delta Region. Third, formulate policies to limit the inflows of FDI that is neither technology nor knowledge intensive and to inspire domestic enterprises to grow up in relational industry to decrease FDI’s negative effect to employment.Based on the research findings of FDI inflows and its economic effects in the Yangtze Delta Region and the fact that China has affiliated WTO, this paper finally outspreads some strategic thouthts for the Yangtze Delta Region taking use of FDI in the future. First, it should be looked on from the altitude of national competitiveness that the Yangtze Delta Region takes good use of FDI is awfully important. Second, the Yangtze Delta Region should build up uniform mechanism of dividing the work and cooperation to fetch in and take use of FDI. Last but not least, abide by WTO rules of equity and transparence and cut gradually the over national treatments for FDI to create more equitable policy circumstance in the region for domestic investment.更多还原