【作者】 赵广君；

【导师】 吴光伟；

【作者基本信息】 同济大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 经济增长、物价稳定和充分就业是宏观经济政策的基本目标。其中，经济增长又是最根本的目标，在市场化改革的轨迹过程中，财政政策始终是支持改革开放和经济增长的有力工具之一。财政支出所表示的公共经济活动对整个国民经济的增长具有重要影响。财政支出政策作为基本的宏观经济政策，具有宏观调控的重要职能，自然也以促进经济增长为首要目标。公共支出与经济增长的关系偏重于效应分析。公共支出如何既熨平经济短期波动，保证经济平稳发展，又使经济本身具备内生增长要素，促进经济长期的快速发展，是财政领域目前关注的一个前沿课题。 “十一五”期间上海市财税工作以加快构建公共财政体系为目标，着力优化财政支出结构，进一步加大对实施“科教兴市”主战略的支持作用。研究上海公共支出与区域经济增长理论之间的关系，不仅能指导下一步财政工作，尽量避免财政实践中一些不必要问题的发生，而且可以矫正财政实践中一些偏差行为。目前专门研究上海公共支出促进区域经济增长的论著不多，因此，本文从上海公共支出促进区域经济增长理论分析和实证分析的角度进行研究，具有重要的理论意义和实践作用。 本文试图深入和全面研究公共支出对区域经济增长的影响，在理论和定性描述上，利用理论分析以及数学模型分析，把有关理论作为实证部分的理论基础，使数学模型分析和定性研究相结合，研究公共支出对经济增长的影响，揭示上海公共支出促进区域经济发展的内在机制；在实证上，利用一定的经济计量方法，就上海公共支出与区域经济增长的关系进行实证估计，主要是在影响方向和增长效应等方面。主要研究内容包括： 理清各种学派的财政支出理论发展脉络及其相互关系，将财政支出理论的内部结构揭示出来；研究我国和上海市几个阶段的财政制度和财政支出制度及其特征，包括：1949—1978年计划财政制度、1979—1993年放权让利财政制度、1994—目前分税制财政制度，以及现阶段上海建立公共财政体制和公共支出制度的重点工作。另外，20世纪中期以后，区域经济增长与发展理论研究发展迅速，分析与财政支出理论紧密相关的区域经济增长理论，主要有：自然均衡理论、增长极理论、“回波效应”与“扩散效应”理论、梯度理论、倒“U”理论、新更多还原

【Abstract】 It’s of interest to study economic growth, a fundamental aim of economic policy, especially for such a developing country. China has been in the transition from planning economy to market economy in order to accelerate its economic growth. Finance expenditure for the public economic activity has important influence to the whole national economic growth. The relation of finance expenditure and economic growth lay particular stress on domino effect analysis. How finance expenditure iron even short time economic fluctuation and promote long time economic growth is a forward problem.Shanghai finance policy aim as public finance system in "Eleven Five" period, optimizing structure of finance expenditure and increasing hold out function to "Science and education prosper the city" main stratagem. Few studies the impacts of fiscal policy on economic growth in Shanghai, furthermore quantity is scarce. There are important theory significance and practice function.The dissertation tries deeply and entirely investigated the effects of fiscal policy on economic growth by using theory analysis and math model analysis. As for analytic methodology, this paper is characterized by dominant deductive reasoning, the combination of positive with normative analysis with the former underlined, the mix of qualitative and quantitative analysis with the latter emphasized. The paper consists of nine chapters, each of which comprises conceptual framework, empirical evidence, and conclusion and policy suggestion on the whole.The primary aim of this dissertation mainly embraces: building or introducing relative theoretical frameworks on the effects of fiscal policy on economic growth, such as the traditional income-expenditure model, model for public spending and endogenous growth, for public investment and economic growth, for public R&D capital and economic growth. Demonstration analysis for fiscal policy and economic growth in Shanghai, including estimating the fiscal policy multiplier, optimal government expenditure size, the role of public capital, public R&D capital andhuman capital played in influencing economic growth and their efficiency size, the impacts of fiscal structure on growth, assessing the sustainability of fiscal policy, and constructing Shanghai new management systematic frame of public finance expenditure, which are what the innovation is in this paper.The paper investigates the effect of fiscal policy on economic growth in traditional income-expenditure model. The IS-LM model in mathematical language is introduced, which puts emphasis on the fiscal policy multiplier to the aggregate output. Then a IS-LM model is estimated using Shanghai data which indicate the shape of IS and LM curve is normal and IS-LM model can be applied to Shanghai regional economy. The fiscal policy multipliers, computed with the estimated parameters , are about 1.83 on average for Shanghai in 1985-2005, with which of every year the impact of fiscal policy change on the aggregate demand and its of growth is assessed, some relevant policy is suggested to spur current domestic demand.The paper investigates the impact of public capital on economic growth. Empirical research on the impact of government capital spending on economic growth is reviewed. A simple overlapping generations model is introduced to illustrate the role of public investment, showing the growth rate is concave in public investment as a percentage of GDP. The production function approach is applied to Shanghai to examine the contribution of labor and public investment to economic growth. Relationship between the size of public investment and economic growth, and the optimal size of government apparatus is also estimated. Some suggestion to increase public investment is addressed.The paper measures the contribution of public R&D and human-resource development capital to the overall output. The theoretical and empirical research that has considered the importance of government expenditure on education and research is viewed. The growth effect of public spending on education is examined in a dynamic general equilibrium model. A production function is estimated to explore the impact of public R&D and human-resource development capital to the output. Assuming the growth rate is s concave function of public expenditures on education and research, the efficient size of the government research sector at which the growthefficient size of the government research sector at which the growth effects of public R&D reach a peak. Some proposal is put forward to back public education and research.The paper examines empirically the effects of fiscal structure on economic growth. Based on an analytical framework which links the composition of government expenditure and economic growth, and defines productive government expenditure, the empirical results suggest that the relationship between expenditure for capital construction, an increase in the share of geological prospecting expenses, pensions, social and relief funds, expenditure for government administration have also negative growth effects. Innovation funds and science and technology promotion funds, operating expenses of industrial, transportation and commercial departments, operating expenses for culture, education, science and health care have exercise positive effects on growth. The effects of government revenue and expenditure structure on economic growth are investigated in one model. Some suggestion is addressed.The paper constructs Shanghai new management systematic frame of public finance expenditure, which includes new public finance budget management system, government finance expenditure benefit evaluation system, treasury centralize payment system, government purchase system, and analysis the relationship between these with economic growth.In the finality, the problems requiring further studies are discussed.更多还原