【作者】 高占义；

【导师】 王浩；

【作者基本信息】 中国水利水电科学研究院 ， 水文学及水资源， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 我国粮食生产对灌溉有很强的依赖度性。我国水资源短缺和经济社会发展对水资源需求持续增加的形势决定了灌溉发展必须依靠提高灌溉用水效率，大力发展节水灌溉。 本项研究在综合分析了影响粮食生产主要因素的基础上，开发了分析灌溉面积发展和节水灌溉发展需求“粮食与灌溉发展需求”模型，该模型可对我国不同水平年和不同粮食自给率下的灌溉面积发展需求和节水灌溉发展需求进行预测分析。本项研究完善并验证应用了“水与粮食生产”决策支持模型，该模型可以分析土地利用变化、种植结构调整、灌溉发展、灌区灌溉水利用率变化等因素对流(区)域水循环的影响，可用作灌溉和节水灌溉发展决策支持分析工具。 应用“粮食与灌溉发展需求”模型分析得出我国在不同粮食自给率条件下的国内粮食生产需求，以及2010年和2020年我国灌溉面积发展需求。在此基础上研究分析了在农业灌溉用水基本不增加的条件下发展节水灌溉发展需求。论文还对影响灌溉面积发展规模的主要因素及其影响程度进行了研究分析。 应用“水与粮食生产”模型，研究分析了田间、灌区和流域三个层次上灌溉水利用率的关系。田间渗漏损失的水量大部分可在灌区和流域尺度上被循环利用，在灌区内损失的水量大部分可在流域内被循环利用，在灌区内采取节水灌溉技术和措施在流域内的真实节水效果比在灌区层次上计算出的节水效果要小得多。农业高效用水应在田间、灌区和流(区)域三个层次上适度开展工作，，利用回归水是灌溉用水高效利用的重要措施。在田间和灌区层次上推广节水技术和措施要注重经济效益这个推动节水灌溉发展的动力。 在田间和灌区层次上发展节水灌溉会使流(区)域内的水循环过程发生变化，应加强研究发展节水灌溉对水循环和生态环境影响和对策。论文还提出了在我国发展农业高效用水的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 In China grain production is highly depended on irrigation. Because of water shortage and increasing demand on water resources with the rapid social and economic development, the development of irrigation has to be based on increasing irrigation water using efficiency and adoption of water saving irrigation technology and measures.In this research, based on the comprehensive analysis of the influence factors on grain production, the Grain and Irrigation Demand Model was developed. The model could be used to analyze the demand on the development of irrigation and efficient irrigation for different target year and grain self sufficient rate. The Water for Food model developed by ICID was modified and applied. The model was able to account for the whole land phase of the hydrologic sector, including the consideration of hydrologic changes due to changes in the land use, agricultural structure, irrigation area and irrigation efficiency. And the model was capable of depicting surface and groundwater balances separately and allowing depiction of interaction between them as well as impacts of storage and depletion through withdrawals. The model could be used as the tool for decision making support on water for food and rural development.The Grain and Irrigation Demand model was used to predict the demand on irrigated area in 2010 and 2020 under different grain sufficient rate. Based on the predicted demand irrigation area, the demand for the development of efficient irrigation was analyzed under the condition of not increasing irrigation water use. The更多还原