【作者】 徐光宇；

【导师】 陈德棉；

【作者基本信息】 同济大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 软件产业作为信息技术产业的核心和灵魂，它在新经济中扮演着核心产业的角色。今后五年内，国内各个产业的信息化以及信息电子的发展将为软件产业提供每年数千亿元的市场，广阔的市场前景吸引了众多的投资者。在对软件企业投资的决策过程中，对软件企业投资价值的评价至关重要，它直接影响着投资决策行为，并在很大程度上决定了风险投资的决策效果，即风险投资的潜在风险与预期收益。正因为如此，软件企业投资价值的评估受到创业家和风险投资家的高度重视。 那么，软件企业价值是怎么形成的，并以什么方式传递给投资者，哪些因素决定了软件企业价值，投资者如何对软件企业进行投资决策?对这些理论和现实问题的深入研究和探索，正是本文选题的目的和意义所在。 企业价值评估研究，是当今国际学术界和企业界共同面临的一项重大课题，具有相当的难度。本文力图结合现代微观经济学、财务管理以及企业战略管理等相关理论，吸收现有文献资料的有关成果，采取定量分析与定性分析、规范分析与实证分析相结合的方法，形成论证的逻辑体系。 本文的研究思路是：首先，从经济学角度分析软件企业价值形成的微观机制，并结合软件产品的网络效应特征，研究市场结构对软件企业未来收益的影响；其次，通过对软件企业的第三方认证、商业计划书这两种信号传递方式的分析，揭示软件企业价值信号传递的有效途径；分析当前我国软件企业核心能力的组成部分，并运用经济学分析方法，论证核心能力对软件企业价值的影响方式；从定量的角度研究影响软件企业未来收益的内在因素，并通过实证研究得出影响软件企业价值的因素；最后，在以上论证的基础上分析投资软件企业的决策。 本文的创新在于： (1)分析了不同网络效应的软件市场上，软件市场集中度对新进入市场的软件企业和市场上原有企业的未来收益的影响。由此得出，由于软件产品具有网络效应，当软件产品存在水平差异和质量差异时，按不同顺序进入市场的企业未来收益状况也会有较大差异。 (2)在确定性情况下，软件企业的价值就是该软件企业未来的收益按一定风险利率折现后的现值，它也是投资者所期望获得的未来收益的现值。而软件企业未来收益取决于软件企业在某个细分市场的领先程度以及对消费者的锁定策略。 (3)运用经济学分析方法揭示了第三方认证和商业计划书的信号传递过程。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the sore and soul of the information technology industry, software industry has acted the part of sore industry in the new economic. In the next five years, the information of the industries and the development of the Information and Electronics Engineering in China will provide hundreds of millions yuan market in every year. The capacious market prospect attracts numerous investors. During the decision-making process, the evaluation on the software enterprise value is so important that it influences directly the decision-making and decides the decision-making effect. Just because this, the entrepreneurs and the venture capitalists venture capitalist attach importance to the valuation on the software enterprise value.So, how does the software enterprise value come into being, and transfer to the investors? To research and exploration these problems is the intention and significance of this thesis.Now, research on enterprise value which is considerable difficult is an importance task in the international academe and business. It is formed the logistic system by using the theory of microeconomics, financial management, and strategic management of enterprises, absorbing the fruits of the literature data, and adopting quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, normative analysis and postive analysisThe research idea and method of this thesis is as follows. Firstly, the micromechanism of the software enterprise value is analyzed from the economics point of view. And the effect on the future income by the market structure is studied with the network effect of the software product. Secondly, the effective signal transduction of the software enterprise value is revealed by analyzing the third party certification and business plan. The structure of the software enterprise core competency in China is analyzed, and the effect on the software enterprise value by core competency is researched by using economic methods. The internal factors which affect the future income of the software enterprise are revealed by quantitative analysis and the factors which affect the software enterprise value are found by positive analysis. At last, this thesis get the decision-making on invest the software enterprise based on above all.The article has innovation as follows:(1) In the software market with different network effect, the software market更多还原