【作者】 郭春明；

【导师】 韩之俊；

【作者基本信息】 南京理工大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 在产品设计阶段为设计者提供细致、准确的成本估算信息，对于开发项目的技术经济评价、产品成本的降低、产品性能与成本之间的均衡、新产品的市场定价都有重要的意义。针对现有成本估算方法对生产耗用资源的市场价格波动考虑不充分、对历史成本数据的真实性重视不够、局限于制造成本估算且缺乏前瞻性等缺陷，论文将作业成本法这样一种先进的成本核算观念和管理方法运用于成本估算，系统地研究了基于作业成本法(Activity Based Costing，ABC)的产品生命周期成本估算。 论文首先在对产品生命周期、产品生命周期成本进行研究的基础上，运用霍尔三维结构，以系统工程的观点，建立了由时间维、逻辑维和数据维构成的基于ABC的产品全生命周期成本估算模型；在此基础之上，进一步给出了从产品特性确认开始，经过作业动因量、资源动因量、再到资源价格预测、产品成本的“逻辑维”模型。 接着，本文对产品主要特征属性获取这一成本估算的前端进行了研究，提出了基于并行功能展开(Concurrent Function Deployment，CFD)与主成分分析的参数获取方法。 构建作业估算关系(Activity Evaluation Relationship，AER)是基于ABC成本估算的核心。本文分析了运用神经网络与回归分析相比在构建AER方面的诸多优势，研究了径向基函数(Radial Basis Function，RBF)网络的特点及其优越性，提出了基于RBF神经网络的AER构建方法，给出了详细步骤，并用matlab编制成标准函数加以实现。 由于学习效用和持续改进的影响，产品成本在生命周期内将呈现一个逐渐降低的规律。本文在对学习曲线与持续改进“半生命周期”规律研究的基础上，提出了综合运用“中间单位”学习曲线模型与持续改进半生命周期模型对生产耗用作业动因量进行前瞻性估算的方法。 考虑到在设计阶段新产品的特征属性有时是不确定的，取得完备的历史数据困难也较大，论文在最后提出了基于ABC与模糊多属性效用理论(Fuzzy Multi-Attribute Utility Theory，FMAUT)的成本估算方法，给出了基本模型和主要步骤。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the preliminary product design stage, obtaining accurate and detailed estimated cost information plays an important role for technical and economic evaluation of construction project, equilibrium between product performance and cost, reduction of product cost and pricing for new product. According to current parametric cost estimation, three limitations, the price fluctuation of resources market is not adequately considered, facticity of historical cost data are paid less attention to, foresightedness is lacked in estimation ,are pointed out in this dissertation. An advanced cost accounting conception—Activity Based Costing (ABC) to cost estimation is applied and the method of product lifecycle cost estimation based on ABC is studied systematically.In the second section, this paper builds a cost estimation model based on ABC after studying the product life cycle and product life cycle cost, this model is consisted by time dimension, logic dimension and data dimension, which is based on Hall three dimensional structure and systems engineering viewpoint. Especially, this paper gives a "logic dimension" model, which begins with product characteristic confirmation, then from activities driver volume and resource driver volume estimation to resource’s price estimation.In the third section, gives a method to decide parameters based on Concurrent Function Deployment (CFD) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) when studying the cost estimation research front—getting product main characteristics.The core of cost estimation based on ABC is constructing Activity Evaluation Relationship (AER). This paper studies the characteristics of Radial Basis Function (RBF) Neural Networks, specifies a particular process model for AER constructing method based on (RBF) Neural Networks ,realizes the AER using standard MATLAB function and analyses the many advantages of Neural Networks (NNs) comparing with Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA) in constructing AER.As a result of the effect of learning efficiency and "Kaizen", product cost will reduce gradually. This paper gives a method, which apply to estimate the activities driver volume used in production.Considering that new product’s characteristics is sometimes uncertain and getting its complete historical data is difficult, this paper offers the basic model and main processes of a cost estimation method based on (ABC) and Fuzzy更多还原