【作者】 查贵庭；

【导师】 王凯；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 市场需求是市场发展的动因，而市场整合是分散的各市场进行资源调配，共同满足市场需求的过程及效率。现有国内外稻米市场需求和市场整合的研究基本都是分开进行的，研究的稻米品种也相对单一，且很少考虑改革开放和我国加入WTO这些重要的历史背景。稻米市场需求研究的结论主要侧重于弹性变化，而稻米市场整合研究的结论主要是判断是否存在整合状态。 本文在提出研究问题的基础上，以稻米市场为主线，采用从一般到重点、从定性到计量的研究过程，既对特殊历史时期的国内稻米市场需求、各品种大米市场需求问题进行了研究，也对国内外稻米市场在我国加入WTO背景下的整合及趋势进行了探讨。试图从经济学和统计学两个角度来分析稻米市场存在的均衡关系。全文逻辑上分为三部分。 第一部分主要运用一般经济分析和行业集中度计算方法。首先，对国内外稻米的产销状况、主要稻米进出口国稻米政策及变化、国内稻米政策面临的问题和挑战等进行分析。然后，运用计量方法分别对1997-2002年间的国内碾米加工业集中度，以及1993-2002年间的国内大米出口集中度进行了研究；在算出集中度的基础上，不仅分析了国内碾米加工业的行业竞争状况和变化趋势，也从出口依存度方面对国内稻米出口存在的主要问题进行了探讨。 论文在第二部分，主要依据需求理论、运用较完整的检验和修正多元线性回归方法(最小二乘法)。一方面，分别对我国改革开放前17年(1963-1979)和改革开放后的23年(1980-2002)的国内稻谷中长期市场需求、以及1985-2002年间国内大米进口市场需求进行了回归，模拟出各自的市场需求函数。随后，利用改革开放后的国内稻谷中长期市场需求模型，对2010-2030年间国内稻谷市场供需状况进行了预测和分析。另一方面，作者以浙江省月度数据为例，首先，对2000-2005年间浙江市场大米市场需求结构变化进行分析，并运用季节指数，对浙江市场上5个大米品种的市场交易波动和价格波动进行了分析；其次，分别对2002-2005年间浙江市场的大米、标一早籼米、标一晚籼米、标一晚粳米、特制晚粳米和标一糯米等品种的市场需求进行了回归，模拟出它们的短期市场需求模型，并对各模型的收入弹性、自身价格弹性和交叉价格弹性在经济意义层面进行了分析。 论文的第三部分在应用协整理论的基础上，运用价格时间序列的单位根检验、Johansen协整检验、Granger因果检验、误差修正模型检验等市场整合研究方法，并运用了AIC或SIC最小的最佳滞后区间选择原理。首先，对国内典型7更多还原

【Abstract】 The demand is the main power to develop markets, and the spatial market integration is the process and the efficiency that the dispersible various markets carries on the resources to meet the market demand. The past studies on the rice market demand and the market integration used to separate the demand and integration, previous researches often based on single rice type, and researchers scarcely considered the important history backgrounds, for example, the history of China’s reform and open policy, and the phase of China’s WTO accession. Their research conclusions of rice market demand mainly emphasized the change of some demand elasticity, and that of rice market integration was often to test whether integration exist or not.Some questions about rice market demand and integration were proposed at start of the thesis, and many study methods were applied, include general analysis, econometrics, statistics, and empirical analysis etc. The market demand of various rice types in special historical time, and rice market integration between China and other countries in the world, market relationship among many rice types were all conducted, the article also discussed the market co-integration difference and tendency between China and foreign countries after China’s WTO (?) accession and before. In a word, the thesis tries to analyze problems of economics equilibrium and that of statistics equilibrium among various rice markets. Eviews soft as main econometric tool was applied in the full thesis.In the first part, some general economic analyses methods were used to discuss the status of domestic and foreign rice production, and rice marketing channels, and rice international trade; The rice policy that main rice import and export countries developed in the world, some problems and challenge with which the China’s rice policy be faced, and so on, were all analyzed. The concentration ratio of the domestic milling processing industry during 1997-2002, and that of countries to which China’s rice export from 1993 to 2002 has been calculated also. Base on two industry更多还原