【作者】 唐学文；

【导师】 刘思峰；

【作者基本信息】 南京航空航天大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 项目后评价工作起源于20世纪30年代美国、英国等西方发达国家,到20世纪70年代初期,世界银行等国际金融组织的投资项目后评价工作已大规模展开。我国的项目后评价工作开始于20世纪80年代中后期,20世纪90年代,在后评价得到国际社会普遍认同和我国建设投资规模不断增大的大背景下,我国开展后评价的部门逐步增加。在理论研究方面,项目后评价作为项目管理的一个重要组成部分,越来越引起国内外学者的重视。本文从路桥投资项目的特点入手,首先将后评价的视野向前后两个方向深度拓展,研究了路桥投资项目后评价的监督机制、管理机制和执行机制,构建了路桥投资项目后评价的数学模型,寻求定性指标科学、合理的量化方法,并对其进行量化分析;同时,建立动态不确定性预测模型,对项目未来一段时期的运行效益进行预测,并根据预测结果对项目进行科学的评价和分析。建立适合于小样本数据的科学、可行、合理的预测模型。主要研究结果有:揭示了路桥投资项目的运营机制、管理机制和反馈机制及其作用路径;设计了服务于中央和地方政府路桥项目投资辅助决策的后评价领导、管理和执行组织机构框架。较系统地提出了路桥投资项目后评价管理模式和反馈机制的体系结构,如组织机构设置、评价对象选择、管理制度和政策制定及后评价成果反馈形式等。根据路桥投资项目后评价的特点,将优势粗糙集理论应用于路桥投资项目后评价量化指标的分类决策研究,构建了基于优势粗糙集的路桥投资项目后评价指标生成的偏好模型,通过属性约简,优化指标体系,对不具有满意一致性的路桥项目评价矩阵提出了一致性修改方法,构建了基于专家自然评价语言的路桥项目后评价模型。构建了基于灰参数的项目过程灰色“追溯”肯定型网络模型,并给出了网络节点时间参数、作业时间参数、灰色关键路线等问题的算法。构建了项目过程的灰色“追溯”GERT网络模型,分析了该类网络的串联结构、并联结构和自环结构的特性,给出了基于灰色随机变量的条件矩母函数表征形式和解析算法,在此基础上,设计了灰色“追溯”GERT网络模型的计算方法,以某桥梁的建设过程后评价为例,构建了灰色“追溯”网络评价与分析模型,对其完成时间和完成概率的区间灰数进行了计算。证明了在有一定的先后逻辑关系(事件本身的内在逻辑、法规制度规定逻更多还原

【Abstract】 Evaluation workings after project come of western developed countries such as USA, UK in the thirties of 20 century. At the beginning of the seventies of 20 century, the evaluation workings after investment project were taken out by the international financing institutes such as World Bank in a large scale. The evaluation workings after project began at the mid and end of the eighties of 20 century in our county. With the background of the evaluation workings after project is generally recognized by the international society and the construction and investment scales increased constantly, at the nineties of 20 century, the departments who takes out the evaluation workings after project increased gradually. On paper,as an important component part of project management, the evaluation after project have drawn more and more attentions of scholars at home and abroad.The text starts from the traits of the investment project of Road Bridge. Firstly, the eyesight of evaluation after project was deeply developed from both the front and the back. It studies the operation systems and the management systems of the investment project of Road Bridge. Also it sets up the relative model of evaluation after the investment project of Road Bridge. It seeks for the scientific and reasonable quantification solution of the determination of the nature of target, then takes out the quantification analysis; in the meantime, the forecast model of dynamical uncertainty sets up to predict the operational profits of the project in the future periods, so as to scientific evaluate and analysis to this project with the result of predict. It sets up the scientific, viable and reasonable forecast model towards small sample data. The main content of this topic is as following:(1) the paper brings forward the evaluation management model after the investment project of Road Bridge and the systematic structure of feedback mechanism, such as the settings of institutional framework, the choice of the evaluation target, management regime, policy establish, and the feedback format of the fruit of the evaluation after project.(2) according to the characteristic of the evaluation after the investment project of Road Bridge, the data of mark on the checking and accepting the projects is handled by the way of applying the solution of rough set based on the dominance更多还原