【作者】 钟平安；

【导师】 叶秉如；

【作者基本信息】 河海大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 概述了我国洪涝灾害的特点、防洪减灾的历史进程、新时期防洪减灾新理念、非工程防洪措施的内涵与意义;从防洪减灾需求、防洪系统规模、研究方法等方面综述了流域防洪系统实时联合调度研究的现状与进展,并分析了研究过程中存在的问题,明确了流域防洪系统实时联合调度研究的前沿和热点。 筛选了近期出现的有代表性的水库调洪演算方法,并从计算速度、收敛性与稳定性、使用的简易性、计算精度、编程方便性等方面作了系统的比较研究,结果表明试算法具有显著优点,通过改进试算法迭代格式,使计算速度提高了20%以上;对防洪优化调度最大削峰和最小成灾历时目标函数的采用表达式与本原表达式之间的一致关系进行了推导,并统一了两种准则目标函数的表达式;对最大削峰准则,提出了从理想最优解出发,逐步引入约束条件的分段试算法,保证了最优解的可操作性,与动态规划法相比,大幅度提高计算速度。 提出了断面流量相关法、主值迭代法和过程迭代法等河道洪水反流向演进方法,比较表明与马斯京根法配合使用过程迭代法为最理想的方法,河道洪水反流向演进方法用于流域联合补偿调度,可以解决流域联合补偿调度模型“有后效性”问题;针对流域实时防洪调度中,洪水预报预见期、河道洪水传播时间与调度期不匹配,以及实时防洪调度群决策特点,提出了库容分配、逐级交互、均衡安全度等三种具有交互功能的流域联合调度模型。 分析了流域实时防洪调度风险源,并筛选出重要风险分析因子;根据水库与下游河道防洪风险分析的差别,提出了水库与下游河道的风险分析方法;从预报精度分类控制,水库水位分级控制、汛限水位动态控制等方面,提出了流域实时防洪调度风险控制技术。 针对流域实时防洪调度群决策需要,研究了基于最优值模型的多方案评价技术,引进了基于AHP、GEM和模糊区间映射法等权重确定方法;提出了实时防洪调度情景会商模型,进行了会商因子的筛选与会商平台的设计。更多还原

【Abstract】 The characteristics of flood disaster in China, the history of flood control and disaster relief, the new principle of flood control in new century, as well as the meaning of non-structural measure are summarized in this dissertation. It is summed up that the current status and development of river basin flood control system real-time joint operation from the requirement of flood control and disaster relief, scale of flood control system, research method etc;the problems are analyzed;and frontier and hot points of the river basin flood control system real-time joint operation research are pointed out.Some typical methods that arise recently on calculation of reservoir flood-control were selected, and a systematical comparison and research was made based on the following aspects, including the speed of calculation, the convergence and stability, the facility of usage, the accuracy of computing, and the convenience of programming etc. The result shows that trial-and-error method is obviously superior to other methods. Calculating speed of this method was increased over 20% by improving the iterative format of trial-and-error method. The consistent relation between the adopting expressions and the original expressions of the maximal flood peak reduction objective function for optimal flood-control and the least disaster time objective function has been deduced, and criteria of these two objective functions were unified. For the maximal flood peak reduction criterion, the stage trial-and-error method with progressive introduction of constraint conditions from the beginning of the ideal optimal solution was proposed, which ensured the practicability of the optimal solution. Compared to the dynamic programming, the method improved the calculating speed greatly.It proposed the flood inverse routing method in river channel, such as the cross-section flow correlation method, the principal value iteration method, the process iteration method etc. Comparison of such methods shows that result of the process iteration method combined with Muskingum routing method is the most ideal. The flood inverse routing method in river channel is applied to the compensating regulation pattern combined dispatching of river and reservoir and can solve the auto-correlationand lagging problem of the compensating regulation combined dispatching of river and reservoir. Aiming at the mismatching of the flood inundation period, the travel time of flood in river channel, the operation period, and the specialty of multi-person decision making for real-time flood control system, three combined dispatching of river and reservoir models which have the iterative function of the model of reservoir storage allocation, the multi-level interactive model, and the degree of equalization-security model was provided.It was analyzed the source of risk in river basin real-time flood control operation, and obtained important risk analysis decision factors. It was proposed the risk analysis method for reservoir and downstream river channel based on the risk analysis differences between them, and risk-control technology for real-time flood control system combined dispatching of river and reservoir was also proposed from the following facets, including prediction precision control, the classification control of reservoir stage, dynamic control of limited levels in reservoir, etc. For the demand of river basin real-time flood control multi-person decision making, it was investigated evaluation technique of multi-plan based on optimal value model and introduced the determination method of multi-index weight based on AHP, GEM and fuzzy interval reflection method. The scenario consultation model of real-time flood control operation was provided, the selection of consultation factors and the design of consultation platform was carried out.更多还原