【作者】 朱九龙；

【导师】 王慧敏；

【作者基本信息】 河海大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 本论文将供应链管理理论引入到南水北调工程水量控制与水资源分配模型的研究中,综合运用水文水资源学、经济学、管理学、随机控制理论和博弈论等相关学科的理论与方法,结合我国南水北调水资源系统的实际情况,从理论上探讨了南水北调供应链节点湖泊的工程水量控制与水资源分配模型。首先,运用供应链的结构设计方法,以南水北调东线一期工程为研究对象,对南水北调供应链的结构进行了设计和分析,为以后内容的研究奠定了基础;其次,利用应用统计分析理论与方法,建立了节点湖泊需求缓冲水量控制模型,并且从定量分析角度,探讨了随机提前期的变动性对需求缓冲水量的影响,提出了不同环境下需求缓冲水量的控制策略;再次,界定了周转水量的内涵,分析了周转水量的影响因素,并重点讨论了南水北调供应链中“牛鞭效应”的随机控制问题;然后,通过引入VMI理论,建立了不同情况下周转水量的VMI控制模型及协调策略;最后,由于在南水北调供应链中,节点湖泊购买工程水资源的主要目的是将其分配或销售给周边地区,所以论文还对节点湖泊的工程水资源分配进行了研究。鉴于水资源的特殊性,论文对于不同用途的工程水资源建议采取不同的分配方式,例如生态用水采用预留方式予以满足:地区居民基本生活用水遵照优先获取的原则,采取人口分配方式进行分配;其它用水采取市场分配方式等等。在此基础上,论文在各节点地区水资源购买价格信息非对称的前提下,利用多目标规划和产品分配理论,以湖泊利润最大化、工程水资源综合效益最大化和地区供水保证率均衡为目标,建立了水资源合理分配模型。更多还原

【Abstract】 The theory of supply chain management is introduced into water control and distribution in South-to-North Water Transfer in the thesis. Considering the actual conditions of South-to-North Water Transfer system, using the theories and methods of hydrology, economics, management, random control theory and game theory synthetically, it discusses water control and collocation of the node lake in South-to-North Water Transfer supply chain in theory. Firstly, it takes the first phase project of eastern line of South-to-North Water Transfer as research object and devises the structure of South-to-North Water Transfer supply chain. Secondly, by using theories and methods of applied statistics, it establishes the control model of buffer-demand water of the node lake, discusses the effect of stochastic lead time on buffer-demand water from quantitative angle, and puts forward strategies to control buffer-demand water under different environments. Thirdly, it defines turnover water, analyzes the influencing factors of turnover water, and discusses how to control the "bullwhip effect" in South-to-North Water Transfer supply chain. Fourthly, by introducing VMI theory, it establishes VMI control model of turnover under different circumstances. Fifthly, considering the particularity of water resources, it studies water distribution of the node lake and puts forward different distribution methods according to different water uses, such as adopting the method of reservation to allocate ecological water, adopting the method of population distribution and the principal of preferential acquisition to allocate domestic water of the residents, and adopting the method of market allocation to allocate other water, etc. Finally, supposing the information of water purchasing price is asymmetry for all node areas, it establishes reasonable water distribution model, in order to maximize the profit of the lake and the overall benefit of water resources and to realize the equilibrium of guaranteed rate of water supply.更多还原