【作者】 刘殿海；

【导师】 杨昆； 杨勇平；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学（北京） ， 热能工程， 2006， 博士

【摘要】 能源是人类社会存在与发展的物质基础。200多年来,建立在化石燃料基础上的能源体系极大地推动了人类社会的发展,然而,人们在物质生活和精神生活水平不断提高的同时,也在承受着由大规模使用化石燃料带来的严重环境污染。能源的可持续发展已成为人类当前和未来迫切需要解决的问题。电力是我国能源消费和生产的大户,电源合理规划在我国能源可持续发展战略中起着举足轻重的作用。 针对我国当前的能源形势和电源规划中存在的问题,本文围绕着“以可持续发展能源结构为指导的传统大电网大机组供电为主、分布式电源供电为补充的电源优化规划”,重点做了以下几方面的工作: 可持续发展的能源结构研究。建立能源结构变化的马尔科夫预测模型和能源结构与污染物排放的关系模型,用模型预测未来的能源结构和污染物排放,计算能源结构调整的幅度;考虑能源利用过程中的资源损耗价值和环境成本,建立边际供能成本模型;计算我国多种供能方式的边际供能成本,分析可持续发展观的各类能源的竞争力及我国能源结构调整方向。 大电网大机组电源结构优化研究。计算现行污染物收费制度下,各种机组包括环境成本在内的实际供电成本;在包括环境成本的实际供电成本基础上,建立电源结构优化模型,确定电网中各类机组的合理容量。 火电机组优化选址研究。在对火电机组选址各项指标进行分析的基础上,研究火电厂选址对电网安全、当地环境的影响及选址地区对火电厂的接受程度,形成了包括经济性、安全性、环保性和社会性指标的完整的优化指标体系。充分运用GIS技术的可视化功能,将整个选址区域划分为若干连续单元,依照火电厂选址的可行性指标确定可行单元,计算各单元优化指标数据;通过建立火电厂选址的模糊优化模型,对各单元进行综合评价,实现大区域内火电厂的连续优化选址。 分布式电源的优化配置研究。分析了分布式能量系统供能的特点,根据不同需要,对独立运行的分布式能量系统进行经济性评价和模糊综合评价,以满足多种用能需求;依据供能成本和成本-效益分析,建立了分布式发电并网的经济性判断模型和备用容量优化模型,对与大电网联接的分布式电源进行了优化配置。更多还原

【Abstract】 Energy Resource is the base of human society exiting and development. During the past 200 years, the energy structure based on the fossil fuel, driven the development of humane society dramatically. However, accompanying with the improvement of mankind living level, the environment pollution, has become a serious problem, because of the large-scale use of fossil fuel. The sustainable development of Energy sector has become the urgent problem, faced by mankind in the present and future. Electricity is both the production and consumption of Energy in our country. The rational planning of power generation will play the important role in the sustainable energy development of Energy sector in our country.Aiming at the serious energy situation and problems of power generation planning of China, study in the essay is carried out for the optimal generation expansion planning of "Under the guidance of sustainable development energy structure, giving priority to utility and distributed energy system is complementary". The mainly work is as following:Study on the sustainable development energy consumption structure. To forecast the future energy structure and contaminations emission, the Markov forecasting model of energy structure and the contaminations emission model are established. The range of energy consumption structure adjustment is calculated to achieve the Chinese economy, environment and energy saving objects. By considering the resource cost and environmental cost in the energy utilization, the marginal cost model of energy supply is established. Many types of energy supply marginal cost are calculated, and their competitive capacity for sustainable development is analyzed.The structure of power generation resource composed of big unites and big grid is studied. The costs of power supply for different units, including the environmental costs, are calculated under the actual contaminations emission control regulations. Based on the actual power supply costs, the optimization model of power structure is established is established to determine the rational capacities for different power units.The site selection of coal-fired plants is optimized. By considering the influence of site selection on utility grid, environment and acceptance of local society, the integrated indexes system including the performances of economy, safety,environment and society is established in this paper. The total site region is divided into many successive units by using the visible function of GIS. The feasible units are determined and calculated according to the feasible indexes of site selection. In the end, the optimal site selection is completed by establishing the models of fuzzy recognition for each unit.The optimal configuration of distributed energy system is studied. The feature of distributed energy system is analyzed. The economy of distributed energy system is evaluated. By considering the factors, including economy, reliability, environment protection, and CO2 emission, the fuzzy integrated evaluation models is built up. The energy supply mode is optimized from integrated energy utilization. The mode of distributed power generation embedded to power grid (EDG) is analyzed. By analyzing the annual power supply cost of EDG and power grid, the economic utilization and cost-benefit analysis model of controllable EDG system are established in this paper. The distributed energy resource is configured optimally connecting to utility grid.更多还原