【作者】 熊连庆；

【导师】 徐长生；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 西方经济学， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 对外贸易战略与人民币汇率制度是我国对外开放进程中两个非常重要的问题,本文试图对二者的相互关系进行研究。对外贸易战略实质上是以国际环境为背景的产业发展战略。改革开放以后,我国开始探索新的对外贸易战略,在比较世界各国经济发展和外贸发展的经验,尤其是在对日本和“四小龙”等东亚国家和地区实施外向型经济发展战略的经验进行认真考察之后,20世纪80年代,国内开始提出由进口替代向出口导向战略转变的观点。1992年,我国的经济体制改革提出了建立社会主义市场经济的目标,意味着我国基本上确立了出口导向型的对外贸易发展战略。这一战略在优化资源配置、推动产业升级和加速我国经济和外贸的发展都起到了巨大的作用。但是,我国采取出口导向战略当前也面临着一些问题。由于我国的产业升级并没有转化为新的国际比较优势,同时,我国从对外贸易中取得的利益十分有限,这就导致了我国对外贸易中的“贫困化增长”现象。一方面,我国的产业竞争力指数不断下降; 另一方面,我国的对外贸易条件不断恶化,成为1994年以来国际上对外贸易条件恶化最严重的国家之一。另外,我国实施出口导向战略还造成了沉重的财政负担和过多的外汇储备问题。针对出口导向战略带来的上述问题,本文提出在新的国际环境下,我国应该采取竞争优势战略。竞争优势战略就是将比较优势与新技术优势结合起来,在充分发挥我国现有的比较优势的基础之上,通过家加快技术创新、制度创新、结构创新等途径来实现我国出口产业的国际竞争力迅速提高。通过分析我国产业的国际竞争力,以及对竞争优势战略与传统的外贸战略的比较分析,本文认为,我国采取竞争优势发展战略不仅在理论上是可能的,在实践上也具备可行性。同时,我国广阔的国内市场也为这一战略的实施提供了坚强的后盾。作为宏观经济重要的调控手段和经济杠杆,汇率不仅直接影响着对外贸易、资本流动和国际收支的平衡,还对货币流通、通货膨胀以及国内就业乃至整个经济都产生影响。如何形成合理的人民币汇率制度,以及如何正确运用汇率这一宏观调控手段来为我国的经济发展服务,已经成为近几年国内外关注的热点之一。对于人民更多还原

【Abstract】 Foreign trade strategy and RMB exchange-rate regime are two important issues in the process of China’s opening to the outside. This dissertation tries to inquire the relation of the two ones. Foreign trade strategy is essentially the strategy of industry develop in the international enviorment. After the reform and opening to the outside, new strategies have been explored in our country. Comparing and studing the experience of economic development and trade development of other countries, especially the experience of the export-oriented economy such as Japan and the Asian “Four Tiger”, target of transforming from the import substitution strategy to export-oriented strategy have been brought forward in 1980’s. In 1992, establishing the socialist market economy system was taken as the target of economy reform, which means that the export-oriented strategy was selected as the new strategy of foreign trade of our country. Export-oriented strategy has played a big role in the optimizing allocation of resources and the upgrating of industries, and also has contributed a lot to the foreign trade development and economic development of our country. But now the implementing of export-oriented statagy in our country also brought forth many problems. In practice, the upgrating of China’s industries doesn’t transform to new international comparative advantages and the profits we get from foreign trade are very limited, which lead to the problem of immiserizing growth of foreign trade, namely, on one hand, the industry competitiveness indices is going down, on the other hand, the terms of trade is also getting worse and worse and China has become one of the countries whose terms of trade worsen most since 1994. At the same time, the implementing of export-oriented strategy also has led to the heavy fiscal burden of government and the overabundance of foreign exchange reserve. In this dissertation, the competitive advantage strategy is suggested for China under the new international environment. Competitive advantage strategy is a model in which the comparative advantages and new technology advantages are combinded together. Based on the courrent comparative advantages of labor and wage, this strategy focuses on the technology innovation, institutional innovation and structure upgrading to improve the international competitiveness of the export industries of our country. Through the analysis of the international competitiveness of our country’s industries and the comparing between the competitive advantage strategy and the traditional trade strategies, it is argued in this dissertation that the implementing of competitive advantage strategy is feasible not only theoretically but also practically, and what’s more, the vast domestic market of our country provides a strong support for the implementation of this strategy. As a main instrument of macro economic management, foreign exchange rate not only affects the foreign trade, capital flow and the balance of payment, but also has impacts on the currency circulation, inflation and employment, and the whole economy. RMB exchange rate regime has become a hot issues being discussed extensively in recent years. In this dissertation, the RMB exchange rate regime is studied in relative with the issues of foreign trade strategy. The positive analysis of Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis on the data of our country shows that the RMB exchange rate moves according to a natural law of depreciating first and appreciating later during the process of strategic transition. The regression analysis of China’s data shows that there is no evident linear relationship between the RMB exchange rate and the volume of import and export. Applying Marshall-Lerner Condition analysis to China’s data shows that the depreciation of RMB does not necessarily lead to the improvement of our country’s balance of payments. Combined with other analysis, it is concluded that keeping a stable RMB exchange rate is necessary for the implementation of competitive advantage strategy. As for the convertibility of RMB, the conclusion of this dissertation is that a convertible currency is better for the implementation of the trade strategy. Based on the above analysis, some policies including a competition-encouraging trade policy and a industry-structure-optimizing policy has been suggested. A proper RMBexchange rate policy is also proposed in cooperating with the implementing of the competitive advantage strategy.更多还原