【作者】 陈艳；

【导师】 王雅鹏；

【作者基本信息】 华中农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 农民收入是关系到农业能否迅速发展,农村能否现代化的关键问题,甚至是制约国民经济快速发展的瓶颈。然而我国当前农民收入现状却不容乐观,20世纪80年代农民人均纯收入年均增长9%左右,90年代降到不足5%;1996年农民人均纯收入比上年增长9%,1997年只增长4.6%,1998、1999年分别为4.3%和3.8%,2000年农民人均纯收入仅增长2.1%,同城镇居民人均可支配收入实际增长6.4%相差甚远,尤其是1998年-2000年,农民从农业中获得的收入分别比上年减少28元、53元和48元,农民来自农业的收入连续3年绝对减少,这是改革开放以来从未有过的。而且纯农户和以农业为主的兼业户人均纯收入连续2年绝对减少,1999年-2000年,纯农户和以农业为主的兼业户人均收入分别比上年减少13元和20元。2001年农民收入增长率恢复到4%,2002年农民收入增长幅度为4.8%,但仍然远远低于城市居民收入增幅。来自中央财经领导小组的材料显示,1997年至2003年的7年间,全国农民人均纯收入增幅最高的年份为4.8%,最低只有2.1%,7年平均下来只有4%,仅相当于同期城镇居民收入平均增幅的一半。农民收入停滞不前的状况给社会经济的发展带来了一系列的问题。不仅严重挫伤了农民的生产积极性,制约了农村经济社会的发展,而且使得整个国民经济陷入了一种低水平均衡陷阱。在这种状况下,如何找到农民收入稳定增长的长效机制就十分必要。 本论文的研究基于以下几点假设:1、农业生产经营机制合理,农业生产是发展的,农民收入必然是增加的;2、农民收入增长经济社会环境改善,农民收入必然是增加的;3、农民收入增加,农村社会必然是发展的。本论文采用系统分析方法,模型分析方法,比较分析方法,实证分析与规范分析相结合的方法以及归纳、演绎和推理的多种分析方法详细研究了我国农民收入构成及演变历史,找到了制约农民收入持续稳定增长的原因,并对比国外和国内先进省份农民收入增长的经验,在此基础上建立了农民收入持续稳定增长的长效机制。 本论文共分七章。首先是导言部分,主要介绍本论文研究背景、目的和意义,研究综述,研究思路、方法以及创新点。第一章,农民收入增长的理论基础。在区分概念的基础上,介绍当前农民收入增长的相关理论。第二章,农民收入构成及演变历史分析。首先详细分析农民收入来源(包括对家庭经营收入、劳动报酬收入、财产性转移性收入和农业收入、非农业收入、财产性转移性收入两大类)的结构变化特征和变化趋势预测;其次分析了自改革开放以来,不同历史时期和不同的地域更多还原

【Abstract】 Farmers’ income is a key point in the rapid development of agriculture and modernization of rural areas and even the bottleneck restricting the fast development of national economy. However, its present situation in our country is not optimistic. Annual increase of farmers’ net income per capita was about 9% in the 1980s and decreased to less than 5% in the 1990s. It increased by 9% in 1996 than the previous year and 4.6% in 1997, while 4.3% and 3.8% in 1998 and 1999 respectively; and only 2.1% in 2000, which was far behind the actual increase of the disposable income of city and town residents which was 6.4%. Especially from 1998 to 2000, farmers’ income from agriculture continuously reduced for three year by 28 yuan, 53 yuan and 48 yuan respectively than the previous year, which had never happened since the reform and opening-up. And from 1999 to 2000, net income per capita of specific households and part-time households continuously dropped by 13 yuan and 20 yuan than the previous year. The increasing rate of farmers’ income bounded back to 4% in 2001 and farmers’ income increased by 4.8% in 2002 which was still far behind that of city residents. According to information from Central Leading Group of Finance and Economics, during the period from 1997 to 2003, the highest annual increase of farmers’ net income per capita was 4.8% and the lowest was 2.1%; and the average in these years was only 4% which was half of that of city residents during the same period. The stagnant increase of farmers’ income brings along a series of problems to the social and economic development, which not only lets down farmers’ productive enthusiasm and restricts rural social and economic development, but also plunges the whole national economy into an equilibrium on a low level. Under the circumstances, it is necessary to establish a long effective mechanism for the stable increase of farmers’ income.This dissertation is based on the following hypotheses.First of all, the agricultural producing and operating mechanism is rational and the agricultural production is in a state of development; consequently farmers’ income will increase absolutely. Secondly, as long as the economic and social environment for the increase of fanners’ income is improved, farmers’ income will definitely increase. Thirdly, with the increase of farmers’ income, rural society will definitely develop. Adopting the systematic analytical approach, model analytical approach, comparative analytical approach, combined approach of positive and normative analysis and deductive andinferential analytical approaches, this dissertation carries out a detailed research on the structure of Chinese farmers’ income and its developing history to find the reasons restricting the constant and stable increase of farmers’ income. On the basis of the comparison of the experience of farmers’ income increase between foreign countries and some domestic developed provinces, a long effective mechanism for the constant and stable increase of farmers’ income is established.The dissertation is divided into seven chapters. First is the introduction part, in which the background, purpose and significance of the research, as well as the researching literature, approaches and innovative points are introduced. The first chapter is the theoretical basis of fanners’ income increase. After clarification of relative concepts, the dissertation introduces present relevant theories of farmers’ income increase. The second chapter is the analysis of the structure and developing history of farmers’ income, including two parts. One is the detailed analysis of the characteristics of the structural change of the sources of farmers’ income (including two categories: one is the income from household management of production, labour remuneration and property transfer, the other is income from agriculture, non-agricultural sectors and property transfer) and the forecast of its changing tendency. The other is the analysis of modes of farmers’ income increase during different periods of time and in different regions since the reform and opening-up. The third chapter is the qualitative analysis of factors which influence the increase of farmers’ income, including factors within agriculture and agricultural external environment in favor of the increase of farmer’s income. The fourth chapter is the positive analysis of factors influencing the increase of farmers’ income. The author firstly divides farmers’ income into non-agricultural and agricultural income, then calculates the primary and subordinate influencing factors by the path analytical approach and the production function approach, and arranges these factors according to their influencing power. The fifth chapter is the comparison of farmers’ income increase among developed provinces. The author chooses Zhe jiang Province, whose farmers’ income increase has ranked the first place for nineteen years, and Jiang su, Guang dong and Shan dong Provinces as representatives to analyze the structure of farmers’ income and the increasing modes and draw experience for popularization and demonstration. The sixth chapter is devoted to the establishment of the long effective mechanism of farmers’ income increase and the reference to foreign experience. With understanding of the concepts of mechanism and long effective mechanism of farmers’ income increase, this chapter introduces its structure,characteristics and the principles for its establishment. It also provides reference to foreign experience. The seventh chapter is the establishment of the long effective mechanism of Chinese farmers’ income increase, including the flexible environment and hard environment construction for farmers’ income increase. And the author provides corresponding long effective mechanisms for the constant and stable increase of farmers’ income in different regions.The fresh points of this dissertation are as follows:The first innovative point is to analyze the structural change of the multi-sources of farmers’ income and predict their trend in increasing farmers’ income in the future, whose conclusion is that the potential of increasing farmers’ income from household management of production is little, especially the agricultural income, and that that from the labour remuneration and non-agricultural sectors is great, especially the income from non-agricultural sectors will surpass that from agriculture and play a decisive role in the increase of fanner’s income.The second one is to calculate ? the primary and subordinate factors influencing farmers’ income from agriculture and non-agricultural sectors by the path analytical approach and the production function approach on the basis of qualitative analysis and categorization of such factors. The conclusions from both approaches are the same, illustrating the correctness of these approaches and the rationality of the results, which are that the main factors promoting the increase of farmer’s agriculture income are the expenditure of the household management of production, the amount of fertilizer used, the purchasing price index of agricultural products and the acreage under cultivation at the end of the year with no obvious effect, that the main factor restricting farmers’ income increase is the price index of agricultural productive material and the subordinate one is the disaster-caused percentage. Those promoting the increase of non-agricultural income are the total amount of fixed assets investment of the whole society and the urbanization rate and the main factor restricting the increase is the ratio of the income between urban and rural residents and the subordinate one is unemployment rate in cities and towns.The third point is to sum up the modes of farmers’ income increase during different periods of time and in different regions since the reform and opening-up. The modes during different periods of time are as follows: the first one is from 1978 to 1984 when the increase of farmers’ income is dominated by the agricultural development, the second is from 1984 to 1988 dominated by the deterioration of the exchanging condition ofagricultural and industrial products and the holdback of agricultural development, the third is from 1988 to 1992 dominated by the governmental intervention, the fourth is from 1992 to 1996 promoted by the rural industrialization during the establishment of market economic system and the fifth is from 1997 up to now dominated by the development of non-agricultural sectors. The regional modes are the urban-promoting mode, the non-agricultural industries dominated mode, the agriculture-dominated mode and the agriculture-promoting mode.The fourth and last innovative point is to establish the long effective mechanism for the increase of farmers’ income by theoretical and positive analysis. The main body of the mechanism is the internal dynamic mechanism and its carrier is the cooperative organizations and industrialized operating organizations, with the government macro regulative mechanism as its direction. The dissertation puts forward systematic and practical countermeasures for the establishment of the long effective mechanism for farmer’s income increase, including that the government should establish a good and flexible environment for farmers, provide institutional support and improve the market environment and regulate its behavior, and that farmers should make use of government’s proper macro-regulation and advanced intermediate market organizations to develop agricultural production, improve productive efficiency and increase income through rural industrialization and urbanization, the adjustment of industrial structure and agricultural industrialization, as well as science and technology.更多还原