【作者】 潘向东；

【导师】 廖进中； 赖明勇；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 为从定量的角度探讨制度与高技术产品出口及经济增长之间的关系,论文首先以引力模型为基础,运用中国与一些主要高技术产品交易国出口流量的面板数据,从总量和各大类产品两个层次,检验影响高技术产品出口贸易流量的因素。同时以拟合回归方程为基础,对2002年45个贸易伙伴国的进口潜力进行了测算。结果发现,样本范围内的高技术产品出口与一般贸易商品相比它有其特殊性,它对由地理条件造成的交易费用的敏感性要低于对由制度环境造成的交易费用的敏感性。这种特殊性很好地解释了在对45个国家的进口额进行模拟时,出现了像荷兰等国相对的“贸易过度”,而印度和加拿大却是相对的“贸易不足”。 论文在探讨制度安排与高技术产品出口之间的相互关系之前,为将其与一般商品贸易作比较,论文运用假设因素检验模型对2002年133个国家和地区与中国双边贸易的截面数据进行了分析,通过分析发现对双边贸易影响最大的制度因素不是交易国的经济制度,而是交易国影响企业运行费用的制度和正式约束的法律制度。同时论文运用面板数据分析法和逐步回归的分析方法,采用引力模型,以中国与主要高技术产品交易国的出口流量的面板数据为基础,从出口总量和各大类产品出口量两个层次,检验高技术产品出口贸易流量与交易国的不同制度安排之间的关系。结果发现,样本范围内的中国出口受交易国的制度安排影响很大,并与一般商品贸易相比有其特殊性。同时高技术产品出口对非正式约束的制度安排、经济制度和企业运行费用方面的制度安排影响的敏感性要高于正式约束方面的制度安排影响的敏感性;并且同一项制度安排对不同大类的高技术产品出口的影响具有很强的差异性。 前面在运用引力模型进行国际贸易流量分析时,尽管从经验的角度对制度变量进行了分析,但缺乏很强的理论基础。为弥补这种不足,论文沿着安德森(Anderson,1979)的研究思路,采用CES函数,推导了包含制度安排变量的引力模型。然后采用美国、日本、韩国和巴西高技术产品出口的面板数据检验了该引力模型。检验结果显示就制度安排总体而言,美国和日本的高技术产品出口对进口国制度安排的敏感性要高于韩国和巴西,四个国家对进口国非正式约束的制度安排的敏感性均较强;就具体的各项制度安排而言,美国和日本的高技术产品出口对进口国正式约束的制度安排影响的敏感性相对较强,而巴西对进口国经济制度和企业运行费用方面的制度安排影响的敏感性相对较强。同时各项制度安排对不同国家不同大类的高技术产品的影响表现出很强的相异性,这种影响的相异性,反映了各国各大类高技术产品出口各自的特征。 探讨完进口国制度安排与高技术产品出口的关系,论文开始从出口国制度安更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to research the relationship of institution, trade and economic growth in empirical methods, the factors influencing the Hi-tech products exports are examined by making a Gravity-Model-based quantitative analysis of the panel data of the Hi-tech products export flow (including the flow magnitudes and the flows of various broad categories of products) between China and the major Hi-tech products trading countries. Based on the fitted regression equations, the potentiality of Hi-tech products import of 45 trading partners of China in 2002 is estimated. The results suggest that the Hi-tech products export in the sample range also obeys the rules of Factor Endowment, however, compared with the ordinary trade, it has its particularity- less sensitive to the transaction costs incurred by geographical condition than to those incurred by institutional environment. The particularity accounts for the "trade surplus" in countries like the Netherlands and "trade deficit" in countries like India and Canada in the simulation analysis of the import volumes of 45 countries.Before exploring the relationship between the Hi-tech products export of China and the institutional arrangements of the importing countries, the Hypothesis Factor Examined Model is adopted to analyze the cross-section data of China’s bilateral trade with 133 countries and regions in 2002. The result reveals that the bilateral trade is more sensitive to institutional arrangements and legal system—a formal constraint—influencing the enterprise’s operating costs than to the economic system of the importing countries. And then the paper employing gravity model and quantitative research methods verifies the relationship between Hi-tech products export flow and different institutional arrangements of different countries by adopting the panel data of the Hi-tech product export flow (including the flow magnitudes and the flows of various broad categories of Hi-tech products) between China and the major Hi-tech products trading countries. The results suggest that the Hi-tech products export of China is highly sensitive to the institutional arrangements of the trading countries and presents its uniqueness compared with ordinary trade. Analyzed from the perspective of institutional arrangements, Hi-tech products export is more sensitive to such informal constraints as institutional arrangements, economic system and the operating costs of the enterprises than to institutional arrangements of formal constraints; and the same institutional arrangement presents different impacts among different Hi-tech product exports.Authough the Gravity Model has been used in our analysis, the Model isn’t sustained by theory. Based upon Anderson’s research (1979) and CES function, a Gravity Model including institutional arrangement factors is deduced and then examined by using the panel data of Hi-tech product exports of USA, Japan, South Korea and Brazil. The result reveals, in terms of the whole institutional arrangements, the Hi-tech products exports of USA and Japan are more sensitive to the institutional arrangements of the importing countries than South Korea and Brazil are, while the four countries are all sensitive to the institutional arrangements of informal constraints of the importing countries. In terms of the specific institutional arrangements, American and Japanese Hi-tech products exports are more sensitive to the institutional arrangements of formal rules of the importing countries, whereas Brazilian Hi-tech products exports are more sensitive to such institutional arrangements as economic system and operating costs of the importing countries. Meanwhile, it is also found that every institutional arrangement presents great differences among different Hi-tech products export of different countries. These differences indicate the different features of the export of various hi-tech products of different countries.After researching the relationship between the institutional arrangements of the importing country and the export of Hi-tech products, the relationship between the institutional arrangements of the exporting country and its export of Hi-tech products is then analyzed. The relationship between institutional arrangements, export of Hi-tech products, economic growth and factors influencing economic growth is further elaborated based on endogenous growth model. The result reveals that the institutional arrangements of a country have a great impact on the trade flow of a country. Among the nine institutional arrangement factors, the institutional arrangement factor bearing the greatest impact on trade flow of a country is the trade policy. The more market-oriented the trade policies are, the greater the trade flow is. The institutional arrangement factor bearing the greatest impact on the Hi-tech products of a country is its property rights protection, and the more private properties are protected, the more beneficial the property right protection is to Hi-tech products export. Among all institutional arrangement factors, the degree of the property rights protection and the clear establishment of ownership of a country is the most influential factor to the economic growth. The analysis of the channels influencing economic growth indicates that property rights protection and governmental interference have the most distinct impact on technological development and human capital.In the last part, based on the analysis results, proposals regarding institutionalinnovation, trade policy adjustment, foreign investment policy adjustment and government intervention are put forward to further promote China’s Hi-tech products export.更多还原