基于东道国视角的外资并购风险研究

【作者】 罗志松；

【导师】 甘当善；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 金融学， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 近年来,随着全球对外直接投资规模的扩大,作为对外直接投资主要方式的跨国并购投资正受到各国的重视。与此同时,跨国并购对东道国带来的风险问题也开始被越来越多的国家所关注。外资并购对东道国的发展究竟会带来哪些风险?其影响程度如何?本文选择从东道国的视角,对这一问题作了详细论述。最后,结合中国的实际情况,对外资在华并购的风险进行了实证分析。 全文分三个部分共六章。 第一部分为导论(为第一章)。重点对本文的研究背景及研究意义作了阐述,对几个关键概念进行了界定,并提出了外资并购风险的概念。 第二部分为理论分析部分(为第二至第五章)。第二章首先阐述了外资并购的基本理论,重点介绍了对外直接投资理论、跨国并购理论、控制权市场理论和政府规制理论,对这些理论作了回顾和评述之后,提出了外资并购风险论的初步理论框架,并将外资并购风险论具体概括为制度风险、产业风险和金融风险三种类型。 第三章至第五章,分别从外资并购对东道国的制度风险、产业风险、金融风险三个角度详细论述了外资并购对东道国的风险。从制度风险来看,外资并购会影响东道国的经济制度性质、政治制度的更替和文化制度的变化,最终引发东道国发生制度变迁的风险。从产业风险来看,外资并购会推动东道国市场集中度不断提高,出现市场垄断的风险,严重时会阻碍东道国民族产业的发展,影响东道国产业竞争力的提高。从金融风险来看,外资并购会对东道国金融市场的稳定性带来影响,并引发东道国国际收支危机和金融危机。 第三部分为实证分析部分(为第六章)。重点对外资在华并购的风险进行了实证研究。实证分析结果表明,外资在华并购目前尚未对我国构成威胁,但一些现象应引起我国政府的高度重视。为此,要在坚持扩大开放的前提下,采取适度的保护政策,以防范外资并购对我国国家安全可能带来的风险。更多还原

【Abstract】 As a main mode of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Cross-border Mergers and Acquisitions (M&As) is to be attached important by many countries in recent years. The risks derived from Cross-border Mergers and Acquisitions also are paid more attention to by host-country. What on earth risks to host-country will cross-border M&As bring and how about the effects? This paper answers these questions.There are three parts, composed of six chapters.Part Ⅰ is the prologue of this paper, mainly discussing the backgrounds and significance of research, and also explaining some key notions existing in this paper.Part Ⅱ is imposed of four sections, mainly introducing the theory frame of Cross-border Mergers and Acquisitions and analyzing the risks of cross-border M&As to host-country.Section one mainly discusses some theories related to cross-border M&As. After introducing and comment on existed theories, the author firstly puts forwards to the theory frame on risks of cross-border M&As to host-country, which consists of system risk, industrial risk and financial risk.Then the author detailed discusses three kinds of risk respectively from section two to four. The author thinks that system risk is embraced by economic system, political system and culture system, and cross-border M&As will bring much impact on these systems of host-country. The author also confirms that cross-border M&As will come into being market monopoly in host-country and hinder improvement of competitiveness of host-country’s industry. Cross-border M&As will also cause financial crisis in host-country if not be well leaded by host-country’s government.Part Ⅲ is empirical study on the risks derived from cross-border M&As existing in China. The conclusion of empirical study is that there are no risks in China now, but there are some disadvantageous effects caused by cross-border M&As, which should be paid more attention.更多还原