【作者】 闫金花；

【导师】 李慧民；

【作者基本信息】 西安建筑科技大学 ， 结构工程， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 商业建筑具有内部空间大,人员密集,火灾荷载大,燃烧产生的烟气毒性大等特点,是火灾的多发场所,容易造成群死群伤的恶性事故,因此,本文选取商业建筑为研究对象进行分析。 总结1990～2003年全国城市大中型商业建筑的火灾案例,根据商业建筑火灾的发展规律和故障树分析原理,建立五个故障树子系统,分别为:外因起火故障树、火灾初期灭火失败故障树、控制火灾蔓延失败故障树、消防灭火失败故障树、人员疏散失败故障树。通过计算故障树各基本事件发生的概率,推导出顶事件发生的概率,并进行故障树的误差传播分析,计算各基本事件重要度并进行排序,找出导致子系统故障的薄弱环节。 根据城市商业建筑防火过程的实际情况,建立城市商业建筑防火系统原理框图,并在此基础上,本着以下原则: ① 防止火灾的发生; ② 火灾发生后进行初期灭火; ③ 一旦发生火灾,应确保建筑物内人员的疏散安全,进行消防灭火,减少火灾的损失。 建立商业建筑防火系统可靠性框图和各子系统可靠性框图。依系统分析原理,计算各子系统的可靠度,从而推导出城市商业建筑防火系统的可靠度。计算防火系统各部件的关键重要度并进行排序,找出影响城市商业建筑防火系统可靠度的因素并进行分析。 采用Bayes统计分析方法,对全国城市大中型商业建筑火灾案例进行调查,将统计分析建立在验前分布和抽样试验结果的基础上。根据Bayes统计分析模型,确定各基本事件的后验分布,并通过Bayes系统评估方法,对城市商业建筑防火系统进行评估,推导出防火系统的可靠度的近似分布函数。 根据城市商业建筑防火系统各部件重要度的排序,从各子系统到总系统进行决策分析,总结出提高防火系统可靠度的方法与措施,从而达到预防火灾,尽量减少火灾损失和人员伤亡的目的。更多还原

【Abstract】 Large city commercial construction is characterized by large space, dense crowd and heavy fire loads which can give off amounts of poisonous smoke when burning. And crowds of people could be injured or killed simultaneously once fire happens in large commercial construction. Then large city commercial construction is taken as the research object.At first, fire cases from 1990 to 2003 of large and middle-scale city commercial construction are summarized. Fire son-fault trees are built up according to the fire development rule and the principle of fault tree analysis. Those are: the fault tree of reasons on fire, the fault tree of failure in extinguishment at the initial stage of fire, the fault tree of failure in controlling over fire extension, the fault tree of failure in fire extinguishments and the fault tree of failure in evacuation. On calculating the probability of basic events, the probability of top events and the importance of basic events are then induced. And the analysis of error propagation of fault tree is made. The key factors that make the son-systems fault will be found out according to the order of the importance of basic events.Secondly, the principle block diagram of fire protection system is set up. On the basis of the fact of fire development rule of city commercial construction, reliability block diagram of fire protection system and its son-systems are made up following the principles just as is:① Preventing fire;② Extinguishing fire at the initial stage of fire;③ Ensuring the safe of evacuation and reducing lose of properties.Through calculating the importance of every basic event of fire protection system andarranging them in order, the primary and secondary elements that influence the reliability of fire protection system are determined.Thirdly, Bayes statistical analysis method is used in the analysis of fire cases of large and middle-scale city commercial construction because it is built up on the basis of prior distribution and sample survey. According to Bayes statistical analysis model, the posterior distribution of every basic event is given. Then the fire protection system of city commercial construction will be appraised using Bayes system evaluation method. And the reliability distribution function of fire protection system is induced.At last, the strategic decision of the fire protection system is made. According to the order of the importance of basic events, the strategic decisions of system and its son-systems are given. The measures how to increase the reliability of fire protection system are made to arrive at the target of preventing fire, reducing lose of property and life from fires.更多还原