【作者】 于雪峰；

【导师】 陈守煜；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 水利水电工程， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 水资源是人类最重要的自然资源。水资源系统既是自然、社会、生态、环境系统的组成部分,同时又与经济的发展和生态环境的变化紧密相关。进入21世纪,水资源越来越难以满足社会、经济、环境的需求,全球水资源短缺的矛盾不断加剧。水资源可持续利用综合管理不仅仅需要考虑经济效益,更要考虑社会、环境等多方面的因素。现实的水资源系统常常是一个多目标、多功能、多层次、多阶段的复杂系统,既含定量目标又含定性目标。本论文对陈守煜教授建立的工程模糊集理论在水资源系统中应用进行了研究。 主要研究内容与成果如下: 1.模糊识别模型及性质的研究: 应用工程模糊集理论,提出目标函数min{F(u_hj)=sum from h=α_j to b_j (u_hj²d_hj)},并推导出相当于α=1的多级模糊识别模型和两级模糊优选模型,以下简称“相当于α=1模型”,其两级模型相当于“理想点”法模型,给出两级模型的3个性质并加以证明。由于两级模型的3个性质,使该模型在使用上更加方便。 2.模糊聚类模型在水资源系统中应用研究 在水资源管理中经常遇到没有划分标准的样本识别问题,如我国水资源时空分布与社会经济发展的匹配程度,洪水灾害遭灾程度的划分等等。根据陈守煜教授工程模糊集理论中的模糊聚类模型,讨论其在水资源管理中的应用:（1） 结合我国水资源时空分布与人口和生产力分布状况,对水资源时空匹配程度进行聚类分析,结果分析表明,利用该模型较好地描述了我国水资源的分布匹配特征。（2） 对我国各省区98年洪水遭灾程度进行了分析,得出各省遭灾程度的排序。 3.区域水资源系统协调发展评价方法的研究 基于水资源可持续利用的水资源管理的原则是公平性、协调性和可持续性。在分析了水资源可持续利用与系统协调之间的关系的基础上,利用工程模糊集理论讨论了水资源可持续利用系统协调性分析方法:通过水资源可持续利用系统子系统间的协调性评价,计算分析子系统与总系统之间的协调关系,最后对总系统水资源可持续利用的协调水平进行评价。利用该方法对汉中地区水资源可持续利用发展协调性进行了分更多还原

【Abstract】 The world’s fresh water is one of the most important resources known to mankind, and water resource system is the most important component of the nature , society system as well as ecology and environment systems, it has close relationship with economy development and eco-environment movement. Fresh water available for human consumption, for social, economic and cultural needs and for environmental requirements is rapidly becoming scarcer, as we enter the 21st century, water shortages throughout the world continue to multiply at an unprecedented rate. The principle of integrated water resources sustainable utilizing management was developed and received widely acceptance in the world. The sustainable utilizing water resources management emphasizes that thinking in terms of economic costs and benefits is no longer sufficient; social, cultural, and environmental aspects have to be incorporated into the decision-making process, especially with regard to long-term effects.In real world, water resources system is a multi-objective, multi-utility, multi-layer, multi-phrase complex system. There are not only quantitative objectives but also qualitative objectives. So the methodology of water resource analysis should integrate quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, structural analysis and non-structural analysis. This doctoral thesis does some researches on the application of Engineering Fuzzy Set Theory (EFST) established by Prof. Chen Shouyu in water resource system, the main points are as follows:1. Researches on Fuzzy Recognition Model and its propertyAccording to fuzzy set theory established by Prof. Chen Shouyu, the author proposesobjective function min and deduces two-level fuzzy pattern recognitionmodel, which is similar to ideal solution method (TOPSIS), as well as the prove of 3 properties of the model. The properties can make the model easy to be used.2. The applications of fuzzy cluster iterative model in water resources systemThere arise problems in specimen recognition without standard partition, such as the match of water resources space-time distribution and society, economy development, etc. In order to deal with these problems, Prof. Chen Shouyu established fuzzy cluster iteration model (FCIM) in the researching of fuzzy set theory, In this paper, with the model, the relative membership grades (RMG) of the classes can be calculated and taken as the weights of the classes, so the rand of objects can be obtained by the comparison of the RMG of each object. The applications of FCIM include: (1) combining water resources and productivity distribution, the author analysis the space-time distribution of water resource in China. The results show that this model well describes the water resources characteristic of our country. (2) studying on the classification of flood disaster grade, we obtain the disaster degree ofeach province or autonomous region and rank order of "98" flood disaster in China. The case shows us that the FCIM makes the clustering of objects have more comparability, and gets more accurate classification results. Which make FCIM more practicable in water resources analysis.3. The applications of EFST in water resources coordination developmentThe principles of water resource sustainable development management are justice, harmony and sustainable. Based on the EFST, the paper studies the harmony of water resources systems: the harmony of one sub-system to the others, or to the general system. Using this method we can assess the sustainable development utilization level of general water resource system, the case study of HanZHong district water resource system utilization level assessment shows the feasibility of this method.4. The applications of equilibrium coefficient of subjective and objective weight in water resource systemEquilibrium coefficient of subjective and objective weight is one of weight decision making method, with which EFST is used in the paper for water resource management. First, we determine the subjective weight, objective weight as well as their weight, then establish an objective function to reach the equilibrium coefficient of subjective and objective weight and the fuzzy recognition iteration model involved Subjective and objective weight. Thereby we can obtain the solution to the objective weight vector. If this weight vector dose not satisfies decision maker’s experiential judgments and preference; we should adjust this weight vector according to equilibrium coefficient of subjective and objective weight. The cases study of region water resources sustainable evaluation and flood control object weight determination illustrates the application of subjective and objective weight equilibrium coefficient.5. The applications of fuzzy optimization dynamic programming for regional water resource harmony developmentDynamic programming is the effective method to solve multi-phase optimization that is widely used in water resources planning and optimization. Regarding complex water resources system, there are not only quantitative objective but also subjective objective that involve experts’ experience and judgments, so it belongs to semi-structural fuzzy decision making problem. In order to solve this problem, this section integrates fuzzy recognition dynamic programming established by Prof. Chen and water resources harmony analysis detailed in chapter 4 that discuss water right assignment model of water resources system. The method更多还原