【作者】 刘清；

【导师】 严新平；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 载运工具运用工程， 2004， 博士

【摘要】 交通安全、灾害防范是不同交通方式发展的先决条件。本论文力图以交通复杂性较高的高速公路为代表，探索交通灾害规律和预警预防机理。 发展高速公路是国家经济现代化的必然趋势。2002年我国高速公路通车里程已达2.52万公里。覆盖全国范围的以高速公路为主骨架的高等级公路网络正在逐步形成，极大地方便了人民群众的生活。随着高速公路交通的发展、汽车保有量的持续增加，尽管修建了大量的交通设施，但是，交通拥挤阻塞、交通安全状况仍然十分严重。高速公路交通在给人民群众带来便利的同时，也带来了交通事故、环境污染等负影响，有些负影响还是非容忍性的。 本文是国家自然科学基金资助项目“交通灾害预警系统研究”在高速公路预警方面研究成果的总结。它以高速公路交通灾害为研究对象，从交通系统角度出发，通过实证调查，在社会综合管理意义上研究高速公路交通灾害的发生机理和发展规律，建立能够预警预控交通灾害的高速公路预警管理系统，研究交通灾害的客观发生规律及其与交通正常状态的转化关系，提出保持高速公路交通长期处于正常状态的“安全”机理。这对在复杂的交通环境下防止交通灾害或妥善处理交通灾害具有直接操作价值，并且对构建高速公路现代化的经营管理机制和提高现有管理水平具有现实意义。 本论文完成的主要工作与成果如下： (1) 通过较为全面的文献检索与查询，把握国内外相关学科研究。从目前相关研究成果来看，现有研究大多处于部门分割之中，从灾害学和社会管理学角度对高速公路交通灾害进行系统分析、展开预警研究目前尚较为缺乏： (2) 对我国高速公路交通灾害状况进行了实证调查与分析。通过对高速公路交通安全、高速公路行驶车辆、驾驶员素质、高速公路交通环境和运营组织等方面现状的调查分析，归纳出我国高速公路交通安全要素的特点与存在的安全隐患，分析了高速公路交通灾害的成因和致灾机理，并建立了高速公路交通灾害成因分析的SD模型，测试证明该模型可以用于对高速公路武汉理工大学博士学位论文交通安全展开成因分析; (3)提出了构建高速公路交通灾害预警管理系统的基本原理。即运用预警管理理论，构建了高速公路交通灾害预警管理系统的理论框架，包括预警系统的组织模型、组织机构、管理体系、预警模式、系统总体评价指标、预警信号设计以及信号的输出方式等; (4)建立了一系列的数学处理模型。即分别针对不同类别的高速公路交通灾害构建了三级评价指标体系，运用神经网络模型进行统计量预测和补足、运用基于层次分析法的模糊综合评价模型建立了交通灾害指标体系的处理模型; (5)利用Aeeess、Exeel和VB6.0，编制了基于高速公路交通安全的交通灾害预警管理系统应用软件。为了在有效预防高速公路交通灾害和降低灾害损失方面更具有操作性和实用性，论文以Access、Excel和VB6.O为工具，编制了相应的系统应用软件。关键词:高速公路，交通灾害，预警管理，系统更多还原

【Abstract】 Traffic safety and disaster against is the precondition of different transportation method. This thesis tries to discuss the freeway that is more complex in traffic areas as to represent, and to investigate the traffic disaster regulation to prevent the mechanism with the forewarning.It is the certain trend of modern economy to develop freeway. By the end of 2002, our country’s freeway mileage has come to over 2.52 million kilometers. Freeway as the main skeleton of highway net covering the whole country is coming into being gradually. It has partial improved the living standard of the mass greatly. With the development of freeway, the amount of automobile is increased quickly. Although the government has constructed vast of infrastructure the cramped, the traffic safety conditions are still very serious. Freeway traffic brings convenience to people. At the same time it takes negative effects which are traffic accident, environment pollution, etc. The freeway calamity is not only touching on the normal work of motorway but also making the mass suffered great loss lives and possessions.This paper is supported by the NSFC: "the study on the transportation calamity early-warning management system" . Freeway calamity is this thesis’ studying object. From the point of traffic system and in the sense of comprehensive management about society, it studied the basic reason of traffic calamity, established freeway forewarning system which can forewarn and control traffic calamity. This thesis also studied the objective regularity which happened in traffic calamity and the converted way concerned to normal traffic condition. It came up with the reason of keep traffic in the state of safe and normal for a long time. This has a direct operation value preventing traffic calamity happen and dealing with traffic calamity in involved traffic conditions. It has a real meaning on constructing modern operation management system and improving management level of freeway.The main work and conclusions of this paper followed as below:(1) Master the relational study from all over the world. The research of* This paper is supported by the NSFC: "the study on the transportation calamity early-warning management system" (No.79590111)traffic calamity forewarning from viewpoint on the catastrophe and social management is few.(2) Based on the questionnaire investigation from condition of freeway calamity, drivers, vehicles, freeway and management, it systematically makes a mechanism analysis about causes of formation of freeway disasters, and sets up the SD model to help analysis.(3) Using the forewarning management theory, the forewarning management system of freeway catastrophe is set up. That is the function and aim. the working content, operation pattern, organization system, work program and the mode of the FMSFC (Forewarning Management System of Freeway Catastrophe).(4) Based on the four kinds of freeway catastrophe, this paper sets up three levels evaluate index system. Then it use artificial neural net to fore case data, use confuse methods to evaluate the index system.(5) Finally, with the help of Access、 Excel and VB6.0, the software of the FMSFC is programmed. By this way, this paper tries to offer an operated and useful method to forewarning freeway catastrophe or reducing the loss of freeway catastrophe.更多还原