【作者】 包群；

【导师】 赖明勇；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2005， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放以来中国所取得的巨大引资成就使得人们广为关注外资流入对中国经济、社会发展所产生的深远影响，其中焦点问题之一即在于是否存在着外商直接投资对国内企业的技术外溢效应，因为后者已经成为广大发展中国家吸引外资的关键原因。尽管多年来中国一直遵循了“以市场换技术”的引资策略，然而经验研究结果却对此提出了质疑。本论文研究从东道国自身的技术吸收能力这一崭新的角度，探讨了技术外溢与东道国吸收能力的内在机理。 首先提出了“存在外资企业对我国国内企业的技术外溢”的前提假设，协整分析结果表明虽然存在外资企业的相对要素生产率优势，然而这一优势却未能有效地转化为对我国国内企业的技术外溢。论文进一步从东道国吸收能力这一关键因素对检验结果进行了深入分析。论文首先构建了较为系统的吸收能力理论分析框架，包括东道国企业技术水平与研发投入、人力资本投资、金融市场效率、产业关联效应、产权保护度、贸易开放度等，重点分析了吸收能力概念的引入对于理解、解释技术外溢效应差异的关键作用。同时，论文构建了技术进步的局部均衡模型与基于Romer(1990)中间投入品种类扩张型的内生增长模型。对模型的竞争性市场均衡求解结论表明，本国技术吸收能力是决定技术外溢效果、稳态经济增长率的关键变量；外资企业在本国最终产品部门的有效参与程度提高具有短期产出效应，但没有长期增长效应。 论文进一步对吸收能力理论进行了中国的经验分析：①通过在Feder(1982)模型基础上引入适应性预期，论文构建了包含技术外溢动态滞后效应的动态两部门模型。实证结果表明以中学生入学率度量的吸收能力对技术外溢起着关键作用，同时技术差距对技术外溢效果具有双重效应。基于VAR系统的脉冲响应分析结果表明吸收能力对技术外溢的动态冲击效应具有较为长久的持续期，而技术差距对技术外溢的动态冲击作用相对较短。②利用我国1996～2002年30个省市的面板数据分析结果支持了技术吸收能力的决定作用。进一步实证结果表明东部地区人力资本投资相对滞后制约了技术吸收能力，而中西部地区提高技术吸收能力的关键是提高经济开放度。最后给出了论文研究的政策建议，包括阶段性的引资思路、适用性的技术引进等。更多还原

【Abstract】 Even though great achievement has been made in China in terms of attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) since its reform and opening-up, it has been widely argued about the impacts of foreign investments on China’s economic and social development, among which whether there exists technology spillover effects of FDI on domestic firms in China is definitely a key one, since it has been considered the essential reason why so many developing countries are eager to attract foreign investors nowadays. A policy of so-called "market for technology" has been implemented in China for a long period, however, the outcome of such a policy has been generally suspected by empirical researches. This dissertation is aiming at investigating the determinants of FDI’s technology spillover effects towards domestic firms, from a brand-new perspective of host country’s absorptive capability.Such a hypothesis that there exist spillover effects of FDI on China’s domestic firms is first proposed in this dissertation; however, results based on co-integration and vector error correction tests demonstrate that although there is a relative productivity advantage of foreign-invested firms against domestic ones, it hasn’t mean that domestic firms have benefited from technology spillovers of FDI which may result from such productivity difference.Such a phenomenon is further discussed based on host country’s absorptive capability towards technology spillovers, which widely includes technological capability of domestic firms, human capital accumulation, efficiency of financial market, degree of industrial linkage between foreign firms and domestic ones, degree of openness and intellectual property rights protection in host country. To show the mechanism how technology spillover essentially depends on host country’s absorptive capability, an endogenous growth model based on R&D-driven growth model of variety extension, first proposed by Romer (1990), has been extended towards an open economic version which includes such key variables as FDI, technology spillover and absorptive capability. The competitive equilibrium analysis reveals that absorptive capability truly determines technology spillovers and hence steady-state growth rate, and the improvement of matching degree between foreign firms’ production and host country’s factor endowment only has short-term output effect instead of long-term growth effect.Application of absorptive capability theory has also been made into China’seconomy. Firstly, by introducing adaptive expectation into the original Feder (1982)’s two-sector model, we establish a dynamic two-sector model to analysis the lagged effects of technology spillover. Empirical results demonstrate that absorptive capability, measured by human capital accumulation, well explains the changes of technology spillover effects; in the meanwhile there exists a dual effect of technology gap on technology spillover. A further empirical test based on impulse response function points out the fact that the duration of response of technology spillover towards a unit deviation standard shock of absorptive capability is much persistent than towards that of technology gap. Secondly, the results based on a panel data analysis of 30 China’s provinces’ data during the period of 1996~2002 also support the determinant role of absorptive capability, and it further reveals that the relative shortage of human capital accumulation in China’s eastern regions is the key variable that restraint the improvement of their absorptive capability, while for middle-western regions the degree of openness is urgently required to be enhanced. Conclusions and policy implications have also been made finally.更多还原