【作者】 罗仁会；

【导师】 郭耀煌；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2004， 博士

【摘要】 经济发展理论和实践表明，产业结构与经济的稳定发展有着内在联系。产业结构是一个动态结构，随着技术进步、经济发展、国际经济环境和消费观念等的变化，它需要发生相应变化。当产业结构适应上述因素变化时，它就合理，当产业结构不适应上述因素变化时，它就不合理。产业结构合理性分析是对产业结构状态的评价，由于经济系统本身的复杂性，我们不能直接观察产业结构是否合理，需要应用科学分析来评价产业结构的合理性。 本文根据产业经济学理论和多个国家统计数据，采用多目标决策、统计、模糊数学和综合评判等数学方法，对产业结构合理性的分析方法进行了全面、系统的研究，对不完善的分析方法进行了改进，并提出了一些新的分析方法。 当产业结构不合理时，需要对它进行调整，使其转向合理，以保持经济的稳定和发展，这也是产业结构合理性分析的目的。本文应用现代控制理论对产业结构调整决策和控制的方法进行了讨论。 传统的方法以经济增长理论为基础，对产业结构合理性分析与调整进行研究。本文以可持续发展理论为基础，对产业结构合理性分析与调整进行理论和应用研究。 本论文的研究内容如下： 1．产业结构合理性判断基准 影响经济稳定和发展的因素有多种，不能仅仅根据经济是否稳定和发展来评判产业结构的合理性。为了分析产业结构合理性，人们提出产业结构合理性判断基准，依据判断基准建立相应的分析方法，应用所建立的分析方法来分析产业结构合理性。在传统经济增长理论下人们建立了产业间比例判断基准和产业关联判断基准，随着可持续发展理论逐渐取代传统经济增长理论，仅有这两个判断基准已显得不足。为此，本文增添了产业结构影响环境状况和产业结构影响自然资源利用两个判断基准，完善了可持续发展理论下产业结构合理性判断基准。 2．产业间比例合理性分析 产业间比例合理性分析研究包括3项内容：一是参照结构研究；二是产业结构与参照结构差异度量研究；三是合理性判断规则研究。 产业间比例合理性分析需要参照结构，目前应用的参照结构主要包括需求结构和三次产业结构模式，这两个参照结构动态地反映出合理的产业间比第ii页西南交通大学博士研究生学位论文例，有其科学的地方，但也有不足。为此，本文提出了新的参照结构，以弥补其不足。 目前还缺乏适当的产业结构与参照结构差异的度量方法，因而在分析实际问题时，难以对一些合理度介于合理与不合理之间的产业结构的合理性做出判断。论文引入了Hamming贴近度来度量产业结构与参照结构差异，并应用多个国家的统计资料，建立了产业间比例合理性判断规则。 3.产业关联合理性分析 产业关联合理性分析包括产业技术关联合理性分析和产业交换关联合理性分析。目前产业技术关联分析方法仅从物耗的角度，对产业结构进行分析。通常技术水平从两个方面给予描述，一是物耗水平;二是劳动生产率水平。为此，本文提出相对劳动生产率分析法，完善了产业技术关联分析方法。 产业交换关联分析的主要方法是变动系数法，该方法应用投入产出模型中的技术矩阵度量产业交换关联规模，并根据产业交换关联规模随经济增长的变化规律，对产业结构进行分析。产业交换关联规模取决于社会分工的水平，然而随着技术进步的发生，技术矩阵中的元素直接消耗系数将发生变化，这将影响产业交换关联规模的度量，变动系数法没有消除技术进步对直接消耗系数的影响，因而在分析具体问题时可能得出错误的结论。为此，本文提出了直接消耗系数调整分析法，弥补了该方法的不足。 4.产业结构影响环境状况和自然资源利用分析 依据产业结构影响环境状况判断基准和产业结构影响自然资源利用判断基准，本文应用绿色投入产出模型，结合环境经济学的理论，建立了产业结构影响环境状况和产业结构影响自然资源利用程度的度量指标，并根据这些指标建立了产业结构合理性分析方法。 5.产业结构调整 应用现代控制理论，对产业结构调整决策和控制进行了研究，建立了产业间比例调整过程优化模型和产业结构调整过程控制模型，并应用极小值原理和非线性规划等数学方法对模型的求解给予了讨论。关键词:产业结构;产业结构合理性;产业间比例;产业关联;产业结构调 整更多还原

【Abstract】 It is indicative in the economic growth theory and economic practice that industrial structure is interrelated with the economic stableness and growth. Industrial structure is a dynamic structure, it will change relevantly as technology advance and change of international economic environment consumption sense and other factors. The industrial structure is rational when it fit in with change of the above factors, otherwise it is not. The analysis of rationality of industrial structure is evaluation of state of industrial structure. We can not examine directly wither an industrial structure is rational because of complication of economic system, and can examine it only by science analysis.The ways of analysis of rationality of industrial structure are researched overall and systematically applying some mathematical tools, such as multiple-objective decision statistics fuzzy mathematics and comprehensive judge, based on statistical figure of some countries, furtnermore some ways have been improved and some new ways have been put forward in the dissertation.The chief purposes of analysis of rationality of industrial structure is providing basis for decision of adjustment of industrial structure, so the decision and control of adjustment of industrial structure are researched in the dissertation.The analysis and adjustment of industrial structure are researched traditionally based on the economic growth theory, contrary to the traditional ways they are researched based on the sustainable development theory in the dissertation.The main research in the dissertation as following 1. Criterion of Rationality of Industrial Structure Because there are many factors affecting economic stableness and growth, so we can not simply make an evaluation of rationality of one industrial structure according to the economy stabilizing and growing. In order to analyze rationality of industrial structure people putforward criteria of rationality of it, set up the analysis means in accordance with the criteria, and use the means to analyze rationality of industrial structure. The criterion of rationality of industrial output ratio and the criterion of industrial correlation have been set up based on the traditional economic growth theory, now people have substituted the sustainable development theory for the traditional economic growth theory, therefore only the tow criteria are not sufficient for analysis of rationality of industrial structure. The criterion of state of nature environment and the criterion of use of natural resource are added improving the criteria under the sustainable development theory.2. Analysis of Rationality of Industrial Output Ratio The research on analysis of rationality of industrial output ratio includes 3 tasks: the first is research on the reference structure, the second is research on measuring the difference between one industrial structure and the reference structure, the last is research on the rule of assessment of rationality of industrial output ratio. The reference structure is necessary to analysis of rationality of industrial output ratio,the present reference structures include the demand structure and the model of 3 Industries, the tow kinds of reference structure show the rational dynamic industrial output ratio from different aspect, but both are not very good, so one new reference structure has been put forward to make up the weakness in the dissertation.Because there is no technique measuring the difference between one industrial structure and the reference structure now, so we are difficult to make assessment to rationality of industrial structure that the degree of rationality is neither rational nor irrational. The dissertation introduces the Hamming close degree to measure the difference between one industrial structure and the reference structure.With the technique measuring the difference and the statistic figure of many counties the dissertation has put forward the rule ofassessment of rationality of industrial output ratio. 3. Analysis of Industrial CorrelationAnalysis of industri更多还原