我国上市公司资本结构行业特征的实证研究

【作者】 周军；

【导师】 俞忠英；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 政治经济学， 2004， 博士

【摘要】 企业资本结构理论研究的是，企业在发展或收缩中，如何安排其融资结构，即企业应该如何确定其自有资本、股权资本和债务资本的比率，才能使企业的市场价值最大化。换言之，如何找到企业最优资本结构是该理论的中心任务。为此，需要找出影响企业资本结构形成的各种因素。而企业属于哪一个行业被许多经济学家证明对其资本结构的形成具有重要的影响。西方研究企业资本结构理论的主流经济学家认为，行业分类是企业经营风险的替代值。因为同一行业的企业面临着同样的环境和经济条件，因为相似的技术、流动资金需求、资产方面担保品的内在类型、盈利能力的整体水平或者增长率，因此负债率有可能比较接近。同样由于这些因素在行业层面上的系统差异，行业间企业的负债率会有明显的差异。但是，综观国内外有关企业资本结构与行业属性之间的关系的文献，研究主要针对的是发达国家的企业，尤其是美国；研究对象主要集中于大企业。而中国经济仍处于向现代市场经济转轨的过程中。西方经济学家研究中揭示的行业与企业资本结构的关系，在中国企业中是否存在，或者说，中国上市公司在确定其最优资本结构时是否需要考虑企业所属的行业因素，是一个非常令人感兴趣的问题，也是一个尚未深入研究的问题。本文所要研究的即是我国上市公司资本结构的行业特征，即行业与企业资本结构的关系。本文的研究有助于企业管理者合理构建本企业的资本结构；有助于债权人正确评估自身贷款的安全性：有助于企业股东或潜在投资者正确评估企业的经营风险和投资价值；在中国，还有助于有关证券监管机构完善其证券发行审核标准以及客观评价我国证券市场的现实功能。本文采用理论研究与经验统计、实证研究相结合的方法，一方面逐一研究诸多可能影响企业资本结构的因素与企业资本结构之间的逻辑关系，并且分析行业这一因素在其中所起的作用。另一方面，选取1998-2002年中国全部上市公司作为样本，通过统计分析和模型回归，实证检验了上市公司中行业与企业资本结构的关系。其中所使用的游程检验方法及矩阵型行业虚拟变量估计模型，均为国内本领域研究中的第一次。本文认为，行业不是一个空泛的概念，而是一群有相似特征的企业集合。这些特征包括企业的规模、盈利性、成长性、波动性、资产可抵押性、资产专用性、企业存续的时间、行业集中度等诸多因素，行业对企业资本结构的影响，是通过这些因素发生作用的，这是行业对企业资本结构影响的传导机制。企业资产规模大，经营多元化，抗风险能力强，对接管的压力有更大的免疫力，在债权人心目中的信用度较高，声誉较好，其负债可能得到债权人的支持。 资产的构成对企业资本结构的选择会产生重大的影响，是企业资本结构的重要决定因素。固定资产在企业所有资产中可担保性和可抵押性最强，固定资产占总资产比重越高，企业的负债能力越强。 由于代理问题，及高成长企业对资本的长期需求，成长性企业一般会偏好股权融资方式。这有利于其在资本需求旺盛的阶段安排好资金需要。 盈利性对企业内部融资能力、企业现金流量及企业负债的安全性有重要的影响。盈利性好的企业会偏好自我积累的融资方式，因而会有较低的负债率。 企业波动性是企业面临的商业风险最直接的表现。波动性越大对企业的现金流量影响也越大。波动性与企业负债率负相关。 企业资产专用性程度与企业资本结构负相关，原因在于资产专用性会导致资产在二手市场的流动性下降，从而影响企业资产的担保值，并增加负债的代理成本。 本文对各行业负债率的一元方差分析结果表明，某些行业的负债率的确存在着明显的差异，但更多的行业之间负债率差异不明显。行业分类的粗细对行业负债率的离散程度没有显著影响，但不同年份不同行业的平均负债率在全体行业中的相对位置基本上比较稳定。 通过单变量回归分析，本文发现，两个相关性检验结果的砂值很低，拟合程度总体上都相当差，也就是说，整体上，行业对我国上市公司资本结构的决定没有什么影响力，但不同行业的拟合程度有一定差异的，对有的行业来说，行业因素有一定的影响力。 在多元回归模型检验中，本文对企业的资产负债率与企业所属行业及企业规模、盈利性、成长性、可抵押性、资产流动性的相关指标的关系进行了检验，结果显示，企业规模、收入成长性、现金流动性与负债率正相关，而企业盈利性、资产成长性、资产可抵押性及资产变现性与负债率负相关。这些结果中，只有资产可抵押性的结果与本文的理论分析矛盾，其余的均与理论分析相一致，理论与实证相互印证。而资产可抵押性出现矛盾的一个可能的解释似乎是，我国上市公司的固定资产中只包含厂房和设备，没有包括最有抵押价值的土地使用权，而且，我国企业的固定资产折旧时间太长，如果算上精神损耗，固定资产真正的现值与其帐面值不符。因此，固定资产占企业总资产的比重大并不能为提高企业的负债率作出任何贡献。行业与其它因素一起，可以解释企业资本结构的形成，但行业因素解释力没有?更多还原

【Abstract】 The theory of corporate capital structure deals with the arrangement of financial structure in corporate expansion and retrenchment, namely the determination of the ratio among equity capital, stock and debt to maximize corporate market value. The most important part of the theory is to set up an optimum capital structure for the corporate and to find out those factors that have impacts on the formation of corporate capital structure. Many economists have proved that the industry of a corporate has a great influence on the formation of its capital structure.The economists from developed economies hold that the classification of industries can be a substitute for corporate operational risks. The corporations in a industry tend to have a similar ratio of liabilities due to having similar economic conditions such as similar technologies, circulating capital, the types of guaranty, profitability and grow rate within the industry. Thanks to the same conditions, different industries have different ratio of liabilities. The literature on the relationship between corporate capital structure and the industry centers on the research in large companies in developed economies, especially the companies in USA. Since China is transforming into a market economic system, it is of great importance to explore the relationship between corporate capital structure and the industry. This dissertation aims to examine the relationship between corporate capital structure and the industry of China’ s listed companies.In this dissertation, the author argues that industry is a collection of companies with the same features of size, profitability, growth prospect, fluctuation, asset mortgage, asset specificity, time of existence and industrial concentration. These features are actually the conducting factors through which the industry affects corporate capital structure.The unary variance analysis of the ratio of liability shows that the difference in the ratio of liabilities is obvious only in a small number of industries, but not obvious in most industries. The method of industrial classification has little influence on industrial ratio of liabilities and the average ratio of liabilities of different industriesis rather stable in different times.The single variable regressive analysis exposes that the result of 12 relativity tests does not match the horizontal value of relativity R2 well. Namely, the industry has almost no influence on capital structure of listed companies in China. However, different industries have various performance in goodness of fit test, showing that the industry has influence in certain industries.The author applies the multivariate regression model to testing the relativity between asset and liabilities ratio and the index of the industry of the company, size, profitability, growth prospect, asset mortgage and asset liquidity. It turns out that ratio of liabilities has a positive correlation with company size, earning growth and cash liquidity but has a negative correlation with profitability, capital growth, asset mortgage and asset cashablility. The negative correlation of liabilities ratio with asset mortgage conflicts with the theoretical analysis, and the possible reason is that the collateral land use right is excluded from fixed asset in China’ s listed companies.The author simulates a non-parametric test established by Scott (1975), by which the results of the former tests are verified.The author testifies the relativity of the industrial features with the industry and found it insignificant for all the eight variables of the industrial features among which asset mortgage is comparatively most significant variable, a common feature that the companies share in the same industry. It also shows the evidence that most industries have a similar feature in asset mortgage.The author employs the research method developed by Saugata (2000) to testify the dynamics of the capital structure of China’ s listed companies, the result is unfortunately insignificant.Generally speaking, the industry has an i更多还原