【作者】 岳春芳；

【导师】 侍克斌；

【作者基本信息】 新疆农业大学 ， 水利水电工程， 2004， 博士

【摘要】 水资源优化配置是水资源系统一个非常重要的研究领域，我国在对北方缺水地区的水资源优化配置方面做了大量的工作，取得了丰硕的成果。然而，近年来处于我国经济发展前沿的东南沿海地区，由于咸潮导致水质恶化，水资源的开发利用中对水质保护重视不够造成的水环境污染破坏，以及水资源的浪费，造成了有水不能用的尴尬局面，不但不利于地区的经济持续发展，也必然影响全国水资源的优化配置。因此，迫切需要着力研究和解决新时期东南沿海地区水资源的开发、利用、配置、节约、保护与治理等问题，加强水资源统一综合规划、联合调度、科学管理和高效利用，确保实现社会、经济、环境和资源的可持续发展。本文针对东南沿海地区的供水安全问题，建立了原水——纯净水耦合配置的水资源优化模型，并以珠海市为例，对该市的水资源进行优化配置。全文共分为八章。第一章论述了我国水资源的基本状况，存在的问题，水资源优化配置模型研究的发展状况和发展前景，以及论文的研究内容和创新点。第二章论述了水资源合理配置的基本概念、主要任务和研究方法、基本原则及指标、水资源短缺类型，研究了各种类型水资源短缺的模糊识别方法，并对珠海市的水资源短缺类型进行模糊识别。第三章在分析东南沿海地区枯季咸潮时盐度的主要影响因素的基础上，利用人工神经网络，建立了咸潮预报模型，为获取枯季河网地区的可供水量提供了一种切实可行的方法。并且对珠海市枯季咸潮进行预报，从而掌握了珠海市枯季河道可供水量。第四章根据东南沿海地区的用水特点，以及实施分质供水的要求，建立了原水——纯净水耦合配置模型。模型中运用了水库和泵站群的联合优化调度，以及其与自来水厂供水的耦合。并对某一区域的水库、泵站进行了优化调度运算。第五章论述了动态模拟模型的基本概念、供需分析思路、水资源配置模式，在此基础上建立了东南沿海地区的水资源供需平衡动态模拟模型。第六章探讨了权重的理论与方法，建立了水资源优化配置方案的评价指标体系，提出利用模糊优选理论对水资源优化配置方案进行评价。第七章以水资源合理配置理论为基础，利用优化配置模型，以及模糊优选理论对珠海市的水资源优化配置问题进行了实例研究。第八章根据所做的工作，得出了相关结论，提出了建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water resources optimum allocation is a significant research field in water resources systems and lots of achievements have been made in north China. Because of upper reaches of saltwater worsening water quality, neglecting water quality protection during water resources utilization and wasting water resources, an embarrassing situation that a lot of water can not be used is caused rescently in the economy developmented area of our country—southeast coastal area. So, in order to quarantee the sustainable development of our society, economy, enviroment and resources, there is an urgent demand for studying and solving the problem of exploiting, allocatig, saving, protecting and regulating water resources in southeast coastal area, strengthening water resources planning, allying dispatch, sciential management and high efficiency utilization. Aiming at safety problem of supplying water in southeast coastal area, a model of original and purifying water coupling allocation is set up in this paper. A case in Zhuhai city, its water resources is been optimum allcated. The paper is composed of eight chapters. Chapter 1, the research background, main research contents and new ideas are included. Chapter 2, the foundation of water resources optimum allocation is studied including essential concepts, main tasks and methods, principles and index, water resources deficient type and its fuzzy discerning method. Chapter 3, on the basis of analyzing main influence factors of salt degree in southeast coastal area during dry season, a saltwater prediction model is set up by using artificial neural network. Chapter 4, according to water supplying characters in southeast coastal area, a model of original and purifying water coupling allocation is set up. Chapter 5, the dynamic simulating model is discussed including its essential concepts, demand and supply water analyzing, and water resources allocation pattern, etc. Chapter 6, determining weights method is discussed, evaluating index system is set up and water resources optimum allocation plan is evaluated by using fuzzy optimum theory. Chapter 7, the theory and application of water resources optimum allocation is studied in Zhuhai city. Chapter 8, main conclusions are drawn and some problems to be further studied are discussed.更多还原