【作者】 盖美；

【导师】 王本德；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2003， 博士

【摘要】 海岸带地区是人类生存和发展的摇篮，是人类政治、经济和文化中心，但随着海岸带地区人口的增加、经济的快速发展及人类不合理的开发活动，使海岸带这一脆弱的生态环境发生破坏。生态持续是整个社会的可持续发展基础，经济持续是整个社会的可持续发展条件，研究海岸带地区的环境与经济协调发展对于整个社会的可持续发展意义重大。 近岸海域污染是海岸带地区主要的生态环境问题，并已成为海岸带地区可持续发展的主要瓶颈。本文首先概括总结了国内外关于海岸带环境与经济协调发展的研究现状，分析了中国城市化、工业化引起的生态环境问题。针对近岸海域水环境污染，进一步探讨了中国近岸海域污染的现状、污染的机理、海陆一体化的作用。关于近岸海域污染的研究大部分还停留在概念及定性分析的基础上，定量分析的研究较少，仍有大量的基础工作、理论研究、模型与方法等需要亟待研究解决，在总结近岸海域污染研究状况的基础上，提出了本文的研究内容，将近岸海域水环境与陆源社会经济作为一个系统，进行海陆一体化调控来改善近岸海域水环境。具体研究内容和成果如下： (1) 在回顾总结了城市化、工业化进程中经济发展的特点及主要引起的环境问题的基础上，以大连市海岸带为例，采用多层次多目标模糊决策模型对大连市综合环境质量进行了分析，得出近岸海域水环境污染是大连市主要的环境问题，为此应用模糊识别模型与多元回归模型的集成方法对大连市近岸海域水环境质量演变及其影响因素进行了研究，得知大连湾水环境质量最差，接近三级海水，且呈现出逐渐恶化趋势；影响大连市近岸海域水环境的主要因素为污水排放总量、城市污水处理率和人均第三产业产值。 (2) 环境与经济的关系一直是众多经济学家研究的热点，但大多研究陆域经济与环境之间的关系，本文首次对近岸海域污染与经济增长的关系进行了探讨。以大连市近岸海域为例，采用库兹涅茨曲线模型探讨近岸海域水环境质量与经济增长的关系，表明石油类浓度与人均GDP呈现倒“U”关系，即在大连市人均GDP为15000元时石油类浓度开始减少；而废水排放总量、生活用水量、磷酸盐浓度、COD浓度随着人均GDP的增加仍继续增大。提出了大连市经济、环境可持续发展的指标，并采用主成分分析与模糊贴近度的集成方法对大连近岸海域水环境与社会经济协调性进行了研究，得出大连市经济发展速度远大于近岸海域水环境恶化速度，且在最近几年，大连市水环境与经济之间的关系为基本协调(在水环境略微恶化的基础上发展经济)。 (3) 系统动力学是处理高阶次、非线性、多重反馈、复杂大系统运动规律的理想方法。本文在对影响近岸海域水环境因素分析的基础上，建立了近岸海域污染调控系统动力学流图，根据流图编制流率变量、流位变量方程，最后运用SD模型与水质模型的集成方法进近岸海域环境与经济协调发展的海陆一体化调控研究行水环境调控，得出了水环境与经济之间的三种发展方案，即传统型、水环境维持现状型和水环境与经济协调发展型方案。最后，论证水环境与经济协调发展型方案是其中最好的方案。只有在水环境改善的前提下发展社会经济，才能使大连市可持续发展。 (4)针对复杂大系统多目标决策问题的指标间相关性，本文提出了基于权重集成与指标相关性处理的模糊决策模型理论。指标间的相关性采用协方差法去除;指标的权重采用主客观相结合的方法来确定，并将该模型理论应用于近岸海域水环境改善的优选方案中，得到了满意的结果，有推广与应用价值。 (5)沿海城市是我国经济最发达地区，也是生态环境最脆弱的地区，如何确定沿海城市近岸海域水环境改善的社会经济因子对于沿海城市的可持续发展具有重大意义。本文采用因子分析与灰色关联的集成方法对影响近岸海域水环境的社会经济因子进行探讨，提出了不同城市改善近岸海域水环境的主要调控因子。 (6)目前，在海岸带地区海陆一体化研究现状中，只是停留在概念及定性分析的基础上，很少人进行定量分析，且在海陆一体化研究中只能通过聚类、主成分分析等方法对不同地区进行排序，不能判断决策方案所在隶属等级。本章首先提出了海陆一体化调控的指标，并对指标间的相关性进行清除，然后采用多层次多目标系统多维模糊决策模型理论对中国近岸海域污染海陆一体化分区调控进行了探讨，得到了满意的结果，不但能够排序，而且还能够识别隶属等级，填补了目前该领域的空白。 最后对全文作了总结，并对有待进一步研究的问题作了展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 The coastal zone is the cradle of mankind, the center of politics .economy and culture. Yet it’s weak ecology environment is being damaged for population increasing, fast development of economy and out-of -order exploitation. Ecology sustaining is the base and economy sustaining is the term of social sustaining development. So it is signality to research the harmonious development of economy and environment in coastal zone for the social sustaining development.The pollution of the offshore maritime area is the main ecology environment problem and has become main throat of jar" of sustaining development of coastal zone. The paper briefly sums up the research situation of economy and environment harmonious development on coastal zone in china or the abroad and analyzes the ecology environment problem that caused by urbanization and industrialization. Then probes into the present situation and the mechanism of pollution and the function of sea-land integrated for the pollution of the offshore sea area. The research on the offshore maritime area pollution still stays on the concepts and qualitative analysis, the quantitative analysis is seldom, so great base work , theory research , models together with methods need to be resolved. Proposes the research contents that we must carry on the sea-land integrated regulation based on the condition of the pollution in offshore maritime area. The major contents and research results are as follows:(1) Reviews the feature of economy development and chief environment problems aroused in the procession of urbanization and industrialization for example of coastal zone in DaLian. Analyzes the integrated environment of DaLian with the multi-level multiple objective fuzzy decision pattern, the result show that water environment pollution is pivotal to the coastal zone in Dalian. So the evolution and effect elements of water environment quality of the coastal maritime area are researched adopting integrating means of the fuzzy recognition pattern and multi-regression model, results show that the water environment quality in DaLian bay is the worst and near to third level and has deteriorates tendency one by one and the main effect element of water environment were the waste water discharges quantity and waste water treatment rate and per capital output of the third industrial.(2) The relationship between the water environment pollution and economic growth is researched first. the results show that mineral oil concentration and per capita GDP presents to sell up "the U character relationship, in that mineral oil concentration will start decreasing when per capita GDP is 15000 Yuan but the waste water discharge, living-water consumption, phosphate and COD concentration will increase with the increase of the per capita GDP. The indexes of economy and environment sustaining development are proposed and the harmonious development of water environment and social economy of DaLian were analyzed adopting theprincipal components analysis together with fuzzy anigh degree means, the results show that economy development speed were faster than that of the water environment deteriorates, the relationship between water environment and economy is basic harmonious in recent years (economy development is on the base of water environment being living deteriorates somewhat) .(3) DYNAMO is ideal means to handle high rank, nonlinearity, mulriple feedback and complex large-scale systems movement .The paper establishes casual relationship chart of regulating the offshore area pollution based on analysis the affect elements of water environment, then establishes stream velocity and gross variable equation, finally utilizes SD pattern to regulate and control, three development schemes are obtained in that conventional trend, quality-standing and harmony development scheme. Finally, we trust that the third scheme is best. So we know that to make DaLian sustaining development only to improve the water environment.(4) The paper proposes fuzzy decision pattern bases composed weight together with in更多还原