【作者】 曹靖；

【导师】 何秀荣；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2004， 博士

【摘要】 作为世界上的农业大国和农业人口最多的国家，中国对农业问题十分关注。中国应对其过去的农产品国际贸易发展进行回顾，以史为鉴，从中汲取经验和教训，这有利于中国在新一轮贸易谈判中明确自己的立场，选择适合切入点，争取中国自身合理利益。 中国农产品国际贸易这二十年，是处于一种全方位变化的时期。这种变化改变了农产品国际贸易的地位和作用，但农产品国际贸易依然有其特殊性和不可替代性。在把握中国农产品国际贸易二十年发展变化特点时，我们更应关注是哪些力量改变了中国农产品国际贸易原有的发展轨迹，推动其进入了一个崭新发展阶段。正是这些力量的共同作用，为中国农产品国际贸易逐渐构建了一个新的成长环境，促使中国农产品国际贸易产生了根本性的变化。 中国农产品国际贸易在这二十年期间的变化非常显著。通过对中国农产品对外贸易中农产品总量以及与此相对应的中国农产品国际贸易进出口的增长速度、中国农产品入超的变化、中国农业的对外贸易依存度、农产品国际贸易在中国对外贸易中的地位等一系列问题进行了描述，勾勒出了中国农产品国际贸易在二十年间发展变化的大体态势。 国际农产品市场稳步增长，为各国农产品的国际贸易发展提供了宽广的舞台；而中国迅速发展的农业生产和国内需求，为中国农产品出口提供了坚实的保障，也为进口发展带来了有利时机。而一国的产品要获取在世界市场上的优势地位，价格因素起到了关键性作用，通过对出口补贴、汇率、关税的作用分析，这些措施除了在出口方面起到了拉动中国农产品国际贸易增长的作用，在进口方面，其调节作用却被明显弱化。这是因为中国政府对于农产品国际贸易，尤其是对农产品进口贸易的严格控制，造成进口大幅波动，导致中国汇率政策和关税政策失去应有作用。通过对中国政府的贸易经营权专控、配额、许可证等一系列措施的分析，解释了中国农产品国际贸易中各种非关税壁垒的影响。 虽然上述这些外部环境因素是影响中国农产品国际贸易的重要原因，但中国农产品必须具有自身的优势才能真正在国际农产品贸易市场上占据一席之地。影响中国农产品国际贸易变化的另一重要原因在于中国各类农产品的比较优势上，而决定中国农产品比较优势的应是中国的资源禀赋优势。通过对中国资源禀赋的分析，显然劳动密集型的产品是中国目前农产品国际贸易的主打产品，具有突出的比较优。 但透过比较优势的表面现象，可以发现中国具有比较优势农产品面临着一个困惑的问题。中国具有优势的产品，优势在不断下降，具有劣势的产品，劣势却在不断弱化。为了解释这一现象，引入了竞争优势理论。可以发现，要最终决定中国农产品在世界市场上地位的优势地位，必须实现结合中国农产品内部资源禀赋优势环境和国际贸易外部发展环境条件，借助外部环境的调整配合，实现农产品由比较优势向竞争力优势转变，真正保证我国农产品国际贸易的发展。 研究表明，中国的农产品国际贸易受到了多种外部因素的推动和制约，也受到了产品自身在国际市场上竞争力变化的影响。将两者结合形成中国农产品的竞争优势，是保证中国农产品国际贸易长期稳定协调的发展，是最需要解决的问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 For the heavily population in agricultural sector, issues about agriculture has been discussed all the time. This analysis targets the development of international trade of agricultural products in the past two decades, from which we can get lessons and perform better in the increasingly open and competitive world.China witnessed a comprehensive transform of international trade of agricultural products in the framework of integrated interaction. Mainly focused on what are the principle factors and how they determined the development of trade, this analysis is characterized the empirical analysis in a span of long time.Generally, remarkable changes of international trade of agricultural products occurred in the past 20 years. This analysis includes mainly as follows: the gross production of agricultural products and the increasing rate of trade it presented, the changes of trade deficit, the dependence index and the status of agricultural products trade in the whole international trade in China.The domestic and external changes of market situation are the primary and direct reason of the quantitative fluctuation of demand and supply. Export and import of agricultural products were spurring due to the development of global market Price, the most significant index of competitive power, together with export subsidy, exchange rate and tariff, were weakened for the rigorous control of international trade exerted by the government of China, which result in invalid exchange rate policy and tariff policy. Non tariff barriers, such as state owned right of trade, quotas and license, are applied to explain the international trade of agricultural products in China.Although the external reasons mentioned hereinbefore play crucial role in trade of agricultural products, the comparative advantages of competition, which are mainly determined by resource endowment, are also critical factors that can’t be ignored. Labor-intensive products, which are of great advantages, will be analyzed by calculated varieties of ratios.Ironically, a paradox of comparative advantageous exists when agricultural products are compared with that abroad. China is losing its edge in products that they had previously and is gaining advantageous gradually in products that are less competitive. Consequently, factors both external and internal are incorporated into the model to analyze the comparative advantageous of international trade of agricultural products.Generally, the former part of this dissertation aims to analyze the quantitative changes the gross production of export and import from a viewpoint of external circumstance of trade. The latter part, on the other hand, explores the comparative advantageous from a viewpoint of internal mechanism. Combined with both external and internal factors, the development of international trade of agricultural products in China can be realized.更多还原