【作者】 李景茹；

【导师】 钟登华；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2003， 博士

【摘要】 制定大型工程施工进度计划是一项极其复杂的工作，传统的分析模式效率较低，这与21世纪迅速发展的科学技术水平不相适应。本文将系统工程、GIS、科学计算可视化、系统仿真、网络计划和系统评价等先进技术方法引入到大型工程施工组织设计领域，开展了大型工程施工进度分析理论方法及其应用研究，主要研究工作和研究成果如下：1．由于大型工程建设系统是一个非结构化问题，难以用常规的解析手段进行系统分析。本文提出采用系统仿真技术来解决这一类问题，并针对现有的仿真软件的一些不足，提出了基于GIS的三维动态可视化仿真理论。通过将地理信息系统（GIS）与系统仿真技术相结合，实现图形辅助仿真建模、全过程动态仿真计算和基于GIS的仿真可视化，为施工进度分析和管理提供了一个有效的手段。2．针对水电工程地下厂房系统施工的特点，提出了地下厂房施工三维动态可视化仿真与进度优化理论，并研制开发了相应的可视化仿真软件ESAS。通过对糯扎渡地下厂房施工进行系统分析，合理地安排了施工顺序，确定了优化的机械设备配套方案，对施工强度进行了均衡优化；同时，研究分析了地下厂房施工交通运输系统，并对施工方案进行了可视化分析和验证。通过实际工程应用，验证了该理论方法的有效性。3．针对混凝土坝施工组织的复杂性，提出了混凝土坝施工三维动态可视化仿真和进度优化理论，研制开发了混凝土坝施工三维动态可视化仿真软件DAMSIM。利用该软件预测了不同施工方案下混凝土坝施工进程和各项定量指标，可以为多方案比选提供科学可靠的决策依据，同时为大坝施工过程分析提供一个可视化分析手段。4.提出了基于仿真的施工总进度可视化分析方法SimCPM，克服了时间不确定型网络中PERT分析的一些局限。在地下厂房施工和大坝施工仿真的基础上，对糯扎渡水电站施工总进度进行了仿真分析，并研究了关键性工作的完工保证率、关键路线的转移等问题，最后采用可视化分析手段全面分析了施工系统中各施工实体间复杂的时空逻辑关系。5.本文分析了常规方法的优缺点，提出了确定多目标权重的随机赋权法。并结合Monte-Carlo模拟，提出了基于随机赋权法的多目标综合评价方法，避免了权重确定的盲目性。通过对糯扎渡水电站施工总进度方案的多目标综合评价，验证了该方法的优越性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Making schedule for large-scale project is tremendously complex task. The traditional planning method is inefficient as well as time consuming. This situation lags behind the development of technology of 21 century. This paper presents a new methodology of construction schedule analysis for large scale project, in which simulation technique, visualization technique, GIS, CPM, evaluation method are utilized all together. The main contents and achievements of the thesis are summarized as follows:Large-scale construction system is too complex to be described and analyzed in conventional mathematical way. Simulation is applied to resolve this problem in this paper. Furthermore, the methodology of GIS-based visual simulation is presented for improving the performance of general simulation methods. Subsequently, the graphical modeling, simulation for the whole construction processes and GIS-based visualization are realized, which constitute of the visual simulation methodology. The method provides a powerful tool for schedule-planning and management of project construction.The second section of this thesis focuses on the methodology of three dimension dynamic visual simulation and schedule optimization for underground structure construction. The corresponding software, ESAS, is developed by author. The construction processes of underground structure in Nuo Zha Du hydroelectric project are analyzed by this method to plan reasonable construction sequence, optimize equipment sets, level construction intensity, analyze traffic and transportation system, and detect the performance inconsistence of construction processes visually. The application verifies the feasibility of the methodology.The following section studies on the theory of three dimension dynamic visual simulation and schedule optimization for concrete dam construction, which is helpful to organize the complicate construction of concrete dam. This study results in a special simulation tool--DAMSIM. Several scenarios with different construction conditions are simulated by use of DAMSIM. The construction sequence and quantitative results constitute the credible base of decision-making. DAMSIM also provides a visual analysis tool for construction scheduling.A simulation-based visual analysis method for project-schedule is presented in <WP=5>forth part of the paper, which successfully overcomes the limitation of PERT. Based on the simulation result of underground structures construction and concrete dam construction, the whole construction schedule of Nuo Zha Du hydroelectric project is simulated by this method. The problems, such as probability of completion and transformation of critical path are further studied. Finally, visualization tool is utilized to analyze the time-dependent spatial relationship between different objects in construction system comprehensively.This thesis proposes a stochastic weight assignment method based on a summery of the traditional methods. Further integrated with Monte-Carlo simulation, the stochastic-weight-assignment-based multi-objectives assessment method is established, which is able to avoid the casualness of weight assignment Different schemes of Nuo Zha Du hydroelectric project are evaluated using this method in order to verify the feasibility of the method.更多还原