【作者】 唐卫东；

【导师】 顾培亮；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2003， 博士

【摘要】 谈判是社会生活中广泛存在的一种重要社会现象。从80年代末期，对谈判支持系统（NSS）的研究迅速发展起来并成为一个热点。本文回顾了有关NSS理论的基本观点以及谈判分析的主要模型，并分析了人类谈判的一般过程，在此基础上，本文主要研究了以下内容：在谈判分析过程中经常需要利用效用函数对报盘和还盘进行评价，因此效用函数直接影响到谈判解的精确性。当谈判方案涉及的议题和议题选项较多时，谈判者往往很难在众多的方案之间作出明确判断，并且需要对谈判对方提出的难以预见的方案进行迅速评价并作出反应，作者引入联合分析与正交设计相结合的方法，利用联合分析将方案的所有议题及其选项通盘考虑，利用正交设计将这些议题与选项进行组合，生成一系列数量较少的虚拟方案，便于谈判者进行评价并且还能反映他们的真实偏好。谈判者利用构造的效用函数，可以引入有关谈判分析的模型进行进一步的分析，如Nash’s谈判公理、Zeuthen让步分析原理等。由此，可以形成一种支持谈判过程的复合模型，为NSS模型库的构造提供支持。分析讨论了设计结构化的谈判过程时需要考虑的主要问题，包括谈判者的认知偏见和行为特点。通过对NSS工作机制的研究，提出了NSS系统构成的三级视图，即用户视图、设计者视图和建造者视图，用于指导NSS的系统设计。此外，设计了一种多边谈判中斡旋行为的计算机支持模型。由于谈判与冲突的解决是一种非（半）结构化的复杂任务，因此需要更复杂的决策支持。谈判者经常根据不确定的谈判变化过程联想起以前的谈判案例。有时，当僵局发生时，经常需要中间人从中斡旋。本文根据案例推理的理论设计了一种为谈判过程提供支持的模型。案例推理系统首先检索以前的谈判案例，从中挑选与当前问题最相似的案例，然后据此建立一个初始方案，经过评价与改写，产生某个方案，使谈判过程更接近于最终协议的达成。随着国际互联网的普及应用和电子商务的迅速发展，需要研究和开发基于Web的谈判支持系统（WNSS），本文介绍了三个主要的WNSS，分析了在网络计算环境下WNSS的结构特点。为了说明WNSS的工作过程，利用INSPIRE系统以一个简单的例子进行了谈判模拟。以恒特公司谈判支持系统的建设为例，说明了运用联合分析和案例推理等理论<WP=4>构造系统的功能与结构，并以谈判实例说明了系统的工作过程，验证了系统工作的现实有效性。最后，对全文的工作进行了总结，讨论了NSS需进一步研究的方向和未来发展趋势。更多还原

【Abstract】 Negotiation has become a widespread and important social phenomenon. Accordingly, research on negotiation support systems (NSSs) has grown rapidly and served as a major concern since the late 1980s. In this dissertation, some elementary notions and theories of NSSs are reviewed. The negotiation models on which NSSs are based are introduced and a general process of human negotiation is analyzed. Based on the above mentioned contents, the major research works are listed as follows:The conduct of negotiation analysis involves support for offer and counter-offer evaluation by means of ratings based on the utility functions which directly influences the final solution of the negotiation. In most cases, the number of package is very large and negotiators need some way of selectively presenting just a few packages for them to rate, yet obtain reliable utility values. This dissertation introduces conjoint analysis combined with orthogonal design to construct a utility function. Using conjoint analysis, the total utility of a package is decomposed into constituent option utilities. The orthogonal design is one of the most compact and effective designs that minimize the number of packages to be evaluated by users, while still giving a good picture of the users’ preferences. With the utility functions constructed, negotiators could get further analysis using the model of bargaining problem, such as Nash’s bargaining theorem, Zeuthen principles, etc. Then, the model base of NSSs can be constructed on the basis of the formed model system.This dissertation discusses some main issues of negotiation structuring that should be taken into account when designing NSS, including behavioral characteristics and cognitive perspectives of negotiators, communication needs of different bargaining settings. The function and working mechanism of NSSs are analyzed. The three-level architectures, i.e., user oriented, designer-oriented and tool-smith-oriented, are proposed to guide the design of NSSs. In addition, a computer-aided model of analysis of mediating in the setting of multi-lateral negotiation is designed.Because negotiation and conflict resolution are complex and unstructured or semi-structured tasks, they need sophisticated decision support. Due to the uncertain and changing nature of the processes, it is important for negotiators to have access to previous cases and to have an agent acting as the mediator when impasses occur. In this <WP=6>dissertation, a negotiation process model which employs case-based reasoning (CBR) to provide intelligent support for negotiators is constructed. The CBR system retrieves appropriate precedent cases from memory and selects the most similar ones from those retrieved. Then the system constructs a solution for evaluation and modification so as to generate proposals that should move negotiators towards a settlement.The emergence and quickly spreading use of the World Wide Web (WWW) and electronic commerce indicate the potential of NSSs supporting commercial transactions across borders. It is necessary to conduct and study Web-based negotiation support systems (WNSSs). In this dissertation, three main WNSSs are introduced. The architecture and characteristics of WNSSs are analyzed under the net-centric computing paradigm. In addition, to show how WNSSs work, a simple negotiation has been set up using the first system designed to conduct negotiations on the Web, i.e., INSPIRE.The NSS of Hengte company is constructed based on the theory of conjoint analysis and case-based reasoning to provide intelligent support for negotiators. Using a real example of negotiation, the working process of the system is illustrated in detail and the good performance of the system is verified.In the end, this dissertation concludes the whole work with suggestions for the future research needed to improve NSSs.更多还原