海平面变化对东中国海工程水位推算影响的研究

【作者】 于宜法；

【导师】 俞聿修； 刘德辅；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 港口、海岸及近海工程， 2003， 博士

【摘要】 由于人类活动对地球系统的影响迅速扩大，全球变暖、海平面上升是20世纪以来全球变化的重要特征之一。此外海平面变化还存在显著的节季变化特征，如渤海湾季节变化幅度就达60cm多。海平面的这种季节变化和长期变化将直接影响着工程水位推算的科学性和精确性。本文对海平面变化对工程水位推算的影响进行了系统的探讨，主要开展了下面一些工作：①用随机动态模型对长期验潮资料分析中国沿岸海平面的季节变化和长期变化；②讨论海平面的季节变化和长期变化对设计水位和多年一遇极值水位推算的影响；③利用一种条件分布联合概率方法分析设计水位与校核水位；④用POM模型对渤、黄、东海潮波进行模拟；⑤用POM模型模拟海平面上升对中国海潮波的影响；⑥用POM模型对天文潮与风暴潮进行数值模拟并推算多年一遇极值水位。通过上述统计和数值模拟计算，得出东中国海海平面季节变化对设计水位的显著影响，而海平面长期变化对潮波影响显著，从而显著地影响工程水位的推算。更多还原

【Abstract】 The effect of human activity on earth system has been extensive, global warming and global sea level rise is one of the typical characters of global change over the past 20th century. Sea level variation has seasonal period, for example the seasonal range of sea level variation in the Bohai Sea exceeds 60cm. The sea level variation of both the seasonal and long term scale affects directly the calculation of engineering water level, such effect will be discussed in detail in this paper in the following aspect: the stochastic dynamic method is used to analyze the seasonal and long term sea level variation; how the seasonal and long term sea level variation affect the calculation of design water level and check water level; a joint probability method with conditional distribution is used to calculate the design water level and check water level when sea level rises; the tidal simulation in the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea and East China Sea with POM; How the sea level rise affects the tidal wave in the study area with POM, then the design water level change is obtained after sea level rise; the celestial tidal wave and storm is simulated with POM and the check water level is obtained. With the above analysis and calculation, it is concluded that mean sea level variation affects the tidal wave in the Eastern China Sea, and then it affects significantly the calculation of design and check water level.更多还原