In this study,a series of sensitivity experiments were performed for two tropical cyclones (TCs),TC Longwang (2005) and TC Sinlaku (2008),to explore the roles of locations and patterns of initial errors in uncertainties of TC forecasts.Specifically,three types of initial errors were generated and three types of sensitive areas were determined using conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP),first singular vector (FSV),and composite singular vector (CSV) methods.Additionally,random initial errors in r...
【英文摘要】
In this study,a series of sensitivity experiments were performed for two tropical cyclones (TCs),TC Longwang (2005) and TC Sinlaku (2008),to explore the roles of locations and patterns of initial errors in uncertainties of TC forecasts.Specifically,three types of initial errors were generated and three types of sensitive areas were determined using conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP),first singular vector (FSV),and composite singular vector (CSV) methods.Additionally,random initial errors in r...
【基金】
sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos. 40830955);
the China Meteorological Administration (Grant No. GYHY200906009)
【更新日期】
2012-02-21
【分类号】
P457.8
【正文快照】
1. Introduction Predictions of weather and climate are necessar-ily uncertain. Research on predictability of weatherand climate refer mainly to two aspects: the analy-sis of factors and mechanisms that yield the uncer-tainties of forecast results, and the
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