Experiments of forecasting daily bi-variate index of the tropical atmospheric Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are performed in the context of adaptive filtering prediction models by combining the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) with the autoregressive (AR) methods.the MJO index,a pair of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) time series,called RMM1 and RMM2,predicts by the combined statistical SSA and AR models:firstly,according to the index of historic observation decomposed by SSA and then reconstructed by...
【英文摘要】
Experiments of forecasting daily bi-variate index of the tropical atmospheric Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are performed in the context of adaptive filtering prediction models by combining the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) with the autoregressive (AR) methods.the MJO index,a pair of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) time series,called RMM1 and RMM2,predicts by the combined statistical SSA and AR models:firstly,according to the index of historic observation decomposed by SSA and then reconstructed by...
【基金】
National Key Technologies R & D Program (2009BAC51B01);
Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD);
Natural Science Foundation of China (40875058)
【更新日期】
2011-11-08
【分类号】
P433
【正文快照】
1 INTRODUCTION Tropical atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation (ISO),i.e. the atmospheric 30-60 day low frequency oscillation,also called Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO),is the most prominent oscillation signal on the intraseasonal scale over the global tr
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