Within the frame of the Zebiak-Cane model,the impact of the uncertainties of the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) on ENSO predictability was studied using a parameterized stochastic representation of intraseasonal forcing.The results show that the uncertainties of MJO have little effect on the maximum prediction error for ENSO events caused by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP);compared to CNOP-type initial error,the model error caused by the uncertainties of MJO led to a smaller prediction unce...
【英文摘要】
Within the frame of the Zebiak-Cane model,the impact of the uncertainties of the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) on ENSO predictability was studied using a parameterized stochastic representation of intraseasonal forcing.The results show that the uncertainties of MJO have little effect on the maximum prediction error for ENSO events caused by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP);compared to CNOP-type initial error,the model error caused by the uncertainties of MJO led to a smaller prediction unce...
【基金】
sponsored by the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No. KZCX2-YW-QN203);
the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2012CB955202 and 2010CB950402);
the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40821092)
【更新日期】
2011-12-09
【分类号】
P456
【正文快照】
1. IntroductionENSO is the most prominent interannual signal inthe climate system and has large effects on the globalclimate. Knowledge about the ENSO cycle and theability to forecast its variations can provide valuableinformation to professionals in the
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