Within a theoretical ENSO model, the authors investigated whether or not the errors superimposed on model parameters could cause a significant spring predictability barrier (SPB) for El Nio events. First, sensitivity experiments were respectively performed to the air-sea coupling parameter, α and the thermocline effect coefficient μ. The results showed that the uncertainties superimposed on each of the two parameters did not exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution; furthermore, the uncertainties caus...
【英文摘要】
Within a theoretical ENSO model, the authors investigated whether or not the errors superimposed on model parameters could cause a significant spring predictability barrier (SPB) for El Nio events. First, sensitivity experiments were respectively performed to the air-sea coupling parameter, α and the thermocline effect coefficient μ. The results showed that the uncertainties superimposed on each of the two parameters did not exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution; furthermore, the uncertainties caus...
【基金】
sponsored by the Knowl-edge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-YW-QN203);
the National Basic Re-search Program of China (No. 2007CB411800);
the GYHY200906009 of the China Meteorological Administra-tion
【更新日期】
2010-09-16
【分类号】
P732
【正文快照】
1. Introduction The ENSO, a prominent climate phenomenon in the coupled ocean–atmosphere system of the tropi- cal Pacific, has a significant impact on global climate. Hence, ENSO has received a great deal of attention in the scientific literature. While
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