There are three common types of predictability problems in weather and climate, which each involve different constrained nonlinear optimization problems: the lower bound of maximum predictable time, the upper bound of maximum prediction error, and the lower bound of maximum allowable initial error and parameter error. Highly effcient algorithms have been developed to solve the second optimization problem. And this optimization problem can be used in realistic models for weather and climate to study the uppe...
【英文摘要】
There are three common types of predictability problems in weather and climate, which each involve different constrained nonlinear optimization problems: the lower bound of maximum predictable time, the upper bound of maximum prediction error, and the lower bound of maximum allowable initial error and parameter error. Highly effcient algorithms have been developed to solve the second optimization problem. And this optimization problem can be used in realistic models for weather and climate to study the uppe...
【基金】
sponsored by the Key Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant. No. KZCX2-YW-QN203);
the National Basic Research Program of China(2007CB411800),the GYHY200906009 of China Meteorological Administration
【更新日期】
2010-08-06
【分类号】
P456
【正文快照】
1. Introduction Optimization methods have been a useful tool in estimating the predictability of weather and climate (Lorenz, 1965; Fan and Chou, 1999; Smith et al., 1999; Mu, 2000; Mu et al., 2003). To quantifying the predictability, Lorenz (1965) applie